The poll last week gave the Cons 32%, Libs 31%, NDP 15%, Greens 10%. Again, this poll includes those tallies, so you can assume the Libs were in the 33% range for last week to get a 32% average. I actually thought last week was one of the strongest for the Liberals in recent memory, the stage to themselves and plenty of substantive releases.
Unlike last week, HD provides regional results, and they show the Liberals capitalizing in the key battlegrounds. Gregg speaks to a Liberal rebound in the all important 905, with women, basically the Conservative inroads have been "erased".
In Ontario, the Liberals have moved in front of the Conservatives for the first time in months. Here the Liberals are at 40%, the Conservatives 35%, the NDP 14% and the Greens 10%.
I haven't seen a Liberal score at 40% since early last summer. This represents a great result for the Liberals, although to grow further they need to tackle a strong Green vote. The Conservative vote still isn't at "base" level, so there is some potential. The relatively poor NDP tally should be of some concern.
In Quebec, the BQ remains in front, but the Liberals are distancing themselves from the Conservatives. The BQ stands at 38%, the Liberals 28%, the Conservatives 13%, the NDP 11%, and the Greens 8%.
The Liberal vote is slowly recovering to pre-Denis "I'm a complete and utter idiot" Coderre numbers. A poor score for the Conservatives, encouragement for the Liberals. Gregg says the Liberals are emerging as the federalist option.
In British Columbia:
In BC, the Conservatives and Liberals are neck and neck. Here, the Conservatives stand at 32%, followed by the Liberals with 30%, the NDP 24%, and the Greens 12%.
There is some evidence that the Liberals are getting traction in British Columbia(numbers more in line with Ignatieff's "honeymoon" period). You hesitate, because of margin of error, but most of the polls do seem to show an uptick, so a small trend argument has weight.
HD also gives the Liberals the lead in Atlantic Canada.
I'm not really surprised to see the Liberals now finally "growing". As a matter of fact, given the professional, government in waiting vibe of last week, you would expect more comfort with the brand. Even if the Liberals haven't moved great swaths, much of this is under the surface "footings".
I guess Harper the humanitarian needs more time to gel :)