Monday, February 01, 2010

New Poll

A new Harris Decima poll, which includes very encouraging regionals for the Liberals. Also encouraging, the Liberals are up another 1% from the poll released last week. Given that this poll is a two week number, which includes last week's polling, it translates to a very good strong last week for the Liberals. Nationally:
Libs 32%
Cons 31%
NDP 15%
Greens 9%

The poll last week gave the Cons 32%, Libs 31%, NDP 15%, Greens 10%. Again, this poll includes those tallies, so you can assume the Libs were in the 33% range for last week to get a 32% average. I actually thought last week was one of the strongest for the Liberals in recent memory, the stage to themselves and plenty of substantive releases.

Unlike last week, HD provides regional results, and they show the Liberals capitalizing in the key battlegrounds. Gregg speaks to a Liberal rebound in the all important 905, with women, basically the Conservative inroads have been "erased".

In Ontario:
In Ontario, the Liberals have moved in front of the Conservatives for the first time in months. Here the Liberals are at 40%, the Conservatives 35%, the NDP 14% and the Greens 10%.

I haven't seen a Liberal score at 40% since early last summer. This represents a great result for the Liberals, although to grow further they need to tackle a strong Green vote. The Conservative vote still isn't at "base" level, so there is some potential. The relatively poor NDP tally should be of some concern.

In Quebec:
In Quebec, the BQ remains in front, but the Liberals are distancing themselves from the Conservatives. The BQ stands at 38%, the Liberals 28%, the Conservatives 13%, the NDP 11%, and the Greens 8%.

The Liberal vote is slowly recovering to pre-Denis "I'm a complete and utter idiot" Coderre numbers. A poor score for the Conservatives, encouragement for the Liberals. Gregg says the Liberals are emerging as the federalist option.

In British Columbia:
In BC, the Conservatives and Liberals are neck and neck. Here, the Conservatives stand at 32%, followed by the Liberals with 30%, the NDP 24%, and the Greens 12%.

There is some evidence that the Liberals are getting traction in British Columbia(numbers more in line with Ignatieff's "honeymoon" period). You hesitate, because of margin of error, but most of the polls do seem to show an uptick, so a small trend argument has weight.

HD also gives the Liberals the lead in Atlantic Canada.

I'm not really surprised to see the Liberals now finally "growing". As a matter of fact, given the professional, government in waiting vibe of last week, you would expect more comfort with the brand. Even if the Liberals haven't moved great swaths, much of this is under the surface "footings".

I guess Harper the humanitarian needs more time to gel :)

14 comments:

KNB said...

Imagine what might be if CPAC was covering roundtables live and the networks were covering opening statements and daily scrums by Ignatieff?

Scott Tribe said...

Hi Steve:

Did you catch this slam of Harper over at the G & M by the Harris-Decima pollster Gregg, blaming him for all the gains the Cons have lost the past few weeks? A thing of beauty:

Mr. Gregg lays the blame on Stephen Harper. He said the Prime Minister's decision to prorogue Parliament has added to what has always been a character issue.

“It's about a guy who looks a little sneaky and un-Canadian in some respects, pressing an advantage like a bully.”

The government's handling of the Haitian earthquake won praise, but hasn't shaken doubts about the prime minister.

“It's overcome by lingering animosity toward a political leader who has done something that Canadians clearly think is untoward,” Mr. Gregg said.
>

If I had said that, I'd be accused of being a Liberal hyperpartisan (as Mike Brock did on Twitter and over at my blog today, when he decided he didnt like being ignored on Twitter), but for a respected pollster to say that is quite an indictment of Harper.

Steve V said...

Imagine if anybody actually watched CPAC ;)


I saw that quote. That's the thing, you have to wonder how many times Harper can damage his reputation and find another life. If the Liberals can look the credible alternative, the Conservatives face a stiff challenge. Who would have thought three months ago that we'd see polls that equate to a small Lib minority? I know I didn't, but Harper has messed up so bad, AGAIN, it's entirely possible now.

JimmE said...

Perhaps this poll should also be played-up:

http://epi.yale.edu/

lma1 said...

If the Liberals are going to win Green votes, Ignatieff will have to talk more about his plans to develop made in Canada environmental policies independent of the U.S. He said today that Canada does not have to wait for the U.S., and can lead instead of follow. This proactive approach distinguishes the Libs from the Cons and is exactly what is needed. Plus a strong commitment to tough regulations for development of the Tar Sands, and the development of alternative energy sources.

Marpman said...

The BC numbers confuse me. I have never really felt that the Liberal party were a strong second-party here. We do well in urban ridings, Vancouver and Victoria...but get trounced outside of these key ridings. This poll shows us ahead of the NDP...whom I have always thought ran strong against the Tories here.

rockfish said...

As a BC i'm of a similar mind, Marpman... i have seen liberal #s like this but always pre-election - once the writ is dropped a shoe falls.
I think that opens another question: if the gov't was to fall in March, would these numbers hold up? Or would the 'we don't want an election - let's punish the opposition!' forces get a bounce?
I'm not sitting on the fence re. a spring election, i think i've seen enough of this brazen lout. But i'm also leery of how well the con-minds are at manipulating the media, turning a heroic accomplishment into a swift-boat scenario.

Tof KW said...

I have to parrot what I’ve been saying before. While these numbers are very encouraging considering what they were just a couple of months ago, the Libs need to keep working here. The frightening part of the polls, and I mean ALL of them going back the past 2 years, is there is a large undecided number. Most of the pollsters don't even bother publicizing them anymore and you need to pour over the details to find them. This should be a warning to any party that support on any particular day may appear to be a mile wide, but it's only an inch deep.

Harper misread those 40%+ polls over the past month thinking he has a huge, solid lead over the opposition. Prorogation was a complete blunder, and that undecided volatility now shows.

The Grits need to be mindful of this volatility, and not fall into the same trap as Harper (actually they did - last fall) by showing they are a credible, competent alternative. I think they are doing a great job these past few weeks. They are releasing alternative policy and acting like a government in waiting. And most importantly, Ignatieff said the other day he's not about to force an election anytime soon. He obviously learned this poll lesson.

Stay the course, let the SS Harper keep taking on water, and eventually a lead in the polls will begin to gel. A quick election call this spring may salvage a bare minority win, but playing the long game promises much more.

DL said...

It all depends on what's in the budget that will be unveiled on March 3. I think that one thing about these polls is that now all of a sudden the tables have turned. A few months ago the conventional wisdom was that Harper would feel free to put all kinds of poison pills in the budget and then dare the opposition to either swallow it or a force an election that the Tories would then win. Now its turned 180 degrees. Now the Tories will be pussyfooting to avoid putting anything in the budget that gives the opposition a good reason to vote non-confidence - suddenly a Spring election is risky for Harper - it will be interesting to see how he reacts.

Steve V said...

I suspect some "outreach" on budget consultations.

Omar said...

O/T

I was just treated to a HUGE Canadian Armed Forces recruitment banner advertisement on YouTube entitled 'Go Behind the Scenes with the Canadian Forces'. A quick click sends you to their YouTube recruitment page that was apparently created December 21/09. While I imagine the CAF profile page comes free of charge I have to wonder what the cost of such a large and elaborate ad banner is to the Canadian taxpayer? No sir, I don't like it.

Tof KW said...

DL said...
It all depends on what's in the budget that will be unveiled on March 3

Well OK, barring any utterly incompetent & stupid move by the Reformatories this spring - play the long game. This fall could be very interesting, especially after the AG releases her first report on EAP spending. I figure Harper was really counting on an election before that event.

I don't see any poison pills in this budget, at least not anymore. At the very beginning of prorogation I would have bet money on it, probably eliminating political party subsidies again. Steve, I'm not so sure about any 'outreach', as that would pretty much be an admission by Harper that he fuddle-duddled up (something he never admits) – but it sure would be a telling sign wouldn’t it?

I think they will project bravado over February to mask any sign of weakness, and hope for the best with the Olympics. I don’t see the games helping at all, even before prorogation I never understood how the Reformatories thought that would help them (never helped Trudeau in ’76, or Mulroney in ’88). Now with all the negative press, I’m thinking any story of Harper or any minister stepping foot in Vancouver will actually lower the CPoC an additional 0.05 to 0.1% in the polls per sighting. It just helps to reinforce ‘Harper Holidays’.

Barring any major screw ups by the Libs, poll numbers should at least stay even with the CPoC until budget time. After that is anyone’s guess. I do expect Harper’s poll numbers to go back to the usual 34-35% mark once the regular business of parliament returns, but his ‘piano man’ days are over.

DL said...

"Well OK, barring any utterly incompetent & stupid move by the Reformatories this spring - play the long game."

One thing we have learned about the Reformatories is that they are perfectly capable of being incompetent and stupid. maybe they will pull a Joe Clark and bring in sometnhing like an 18 cent a gallon gas tax!

Steve V said...

They did just squander a double digit lead, ALL on their own.