Friday, August 27, 2010

Quebec "Boosts Liberal Fortunes"

Remember when the Liberals were polling in the mid 20's, talk of mergers, leadership, complete disarray? That debate was all the way back in June. At the time, I posted that at the heart of the problem, where all the negativity originated, boiled down to Quebec:

Turning our gaze to Quebec, we see another pathetic 18.9% score for the Liberals, a number which is now commonplace. I would submit, that most of this merger, Liberals in free fall conversation, would be muted if the party was simply doing better in Quebec. The Liberals were in the 30's for more than a few months, then drifted back to the high 20's and its been downward since. Even if the party had MODEST numbers in Quebec, you can add a couple points nationally, and SUDDENLY you've got a close horse race and most of these "story lines" run basically as background noise.

Fast forward today, and we are starting to see those "modest" Quebec numbers, nothing spectacular, nothing to get excited about, but just enough that the Liberals suddenly look viable:
Nationally, the Tories were at 33 per cent, to the Liberals' 30, the NDP's 16 and the Greens' 10.

In Quebec, the Bloc stood at 37 per cent with the Liberals in a solid second at 28 per cent. The Tories were at 15 per cent, the Greens at 10 and the NDP at nine.

Returning to when the Liberals were polling in the high teens in Quebec, you can shave 2-3% off the national numbers, and I guarantee the negative narratives find more oxygen. If you look at the regional numbers- comparing the June bloodbath with the latest batch of polling- you find the Liberals haven't really moved in Ontario, haven't really move anywhere. And yet, suddenly we have "narrowing leads", "Liberals off the mat", "race tightening", all because the Liberals have merely returned to a half decent showing in Quebec, nothing more, nothing less.


bigcitylib said...

Yeah, but why?

Gun registry? (I would think)
Census? (Probably a little)

Steve V said...

Our numbers tanked at the same time Charest first got in trouble, same in inverse for Bloc.

These aren't amazing numbers, but maybe the tour has helped as well. A SMALL anecedote, but I was in QC during the Quebec leg, and he was getting some really nice coverage, and I was surprised how much. Couldn't have hurt.

Probably the things you mentioned, and maybe a natural rebound??

Steve V said...


On the gun registry score, it is noteworthy that the NDP falls to 9% in this poll (down 3%). This represents the first time the NDP has fallen to single digits for a HD poll in quite some time. Could be something??

CK said...

BCL, I would say long gun registry would have something to do with it in part. For Outremont anyway; Polytechnique is in that riding. If Jack doesn't whip, I would say that Mulcair's already challenging battle with Cauchon just got that much harder.

But, the Bloc is also whipping its' caucus to vote against c-391.

Quebec is a weird bird. But nothing, if not creatures of habit. If Charest's scandals weren't happening now, they would had to have been invented. 'perfect storms' are often created when it is deemed the LIberals have been governing for too long, as is the case here.

PQ isn't so pristine neither and Quebecers know this. Same type of scandals.

After 15 years, a referendum on sovereignty is once again due. That and the Bloc's continued stronghold on Quebec proves that the Question of Quebec's place within or without Canada is far from resolved and can't remain that way indefinitely.

Until that time, be happy when the Liberals make any kind of gains in Quebec, but don't expect much neither. No matter who is the leader of what federalist party, they won't remove the raison d'etre of the Bloc, at least until this problem is solved one way or the other.