Turning our gaze to Quebec, we see another pathetic 18.9% score for the Liberals, a number which is now commonplace. I would submit, that most of this merger, Liberals in free fall conversation, would be muted if the party was simply doing better in Quebec. The Liberals were in the 30's for more than a few months, then drifted back to the high 20's and its been downward since. Even if the party had MODEST numbers in Quebec, you can add a couple points nationally, and SUDDENLY you've got a close horse race and most of these "story lines" run basically as background noise.
Fast forward today, and we are starting to see those "modest" Quebec numbers, nothing spectacular, nothing to get excited about, but just enough that the Liberals suddenly look viable:
Nationally, the Tories were at 33 per cent, to the Liberals' 30, the NDP's 16 and the Greens' 10.
In Quebec, the Bloc stood at 37 per cent with the Liberals in a solid second at 28 per cent. The Tories were at 15 per cent, the Greens at 10 and the NDP at nine.
Returning to when the Liberals were polling in the high teens in Quebec, you can shave 2-3% off the national numbers, and I guarantee the negative narratives find more oxygen. If you look at the regional numbers- comparing the June bloodbath with the latest batch of polling- you find the Liberals haven't really moved in Ontario, haven't really move anywhere. And yet, suddenly we have "narrowing leads", "Liberals off the mat", "race tightening", all because the Liberals have merely returned to a half decent showing in Quebec, nothing more, nothing less.