Thursday, October 14, 2010

Pollapalooza

Noticing a fair amount of hand wringing, in the wake of the new NANOS and EKOS polls out today. Why aren't the Conservatives paying, HOW can they still be in the lead, despite all these negative story lines, new Liberal initiatives, etc?

First off, yes we still see a Conservative lead, but it's hardly intimidating. I've sort to come to peace with these polls, we seem to vacillate between dead heats and a decent Conservative lead, back and forth, the same dynamic pretty much post-Iggy honeymoon. I actually thought last week that polls might start to swing back slightly again. My new working thesis- when we have a hot button issue we get "dead heat", but as soon as "normalcy" returns, voters drift back to the government. It is this dynamic that frustrates Liberals, because we believe each fresh gaffe or offence will be the one that finally move things in our favour, in a more permanent sense. Every time we see a widening, the more depressing it can become. However, I'm more an intangible observer these days, primarily because people simply aren't engaged in any meaningful capacity, a reality that will not change until a campaign. It is also for that reason that Liberals would be wise to not wait for the perfect poll storm; it's unlikely to materalize, barring some massive implosion or Ignatieff running into a burning house to save a toddler.

Ontario is beyond volatile, and will change on a dime. These swings are mostly an Ontario consideration, but I remain confident that Liberals have upwards of 42-45% potential support, should we run a good campaign. I also see potential to expand in Quebec, we have the inside track on the possible real alternative to the Bloc. My point, it's more the groundwork that's important now, developing contrasts and cementing the negative narratives surrounding this government.

In case anyone thinks this is just partisan spin, I would welcome a review of the multiple times I've taken "the sky is falling" position. I actually believed Liberals were wise to adopt a two election strategy, because the prospects so remote in the near term. I've altered that view now, and firmly believe we have a decent shot of taking Harper out. Ignatieff looks like he can pull off a campaign, the team looks focused, the strategies are starting to bear incremental fruit. I also think Harper is very close to the tipping point, likening it to a drip drip drip into a bucket that eventually overflows. My gut tells me the baggage is accumulating to the point that represents incumbent danger. In fact, I already believe some damage is evident, but the divided opposition, the inability to gel around a singular alternative breathes oxygen.

Here's the poll I am focusing on. These type of findings are opportunity, they tell me if the Liberals run a good campaign, offer an attractive alternative, provide a fresh brand, they can rally the support to turf these Conservatives. Of that, I have no doubt.

15 comments:

Kirk said...

I used to think it was the economy sustaining the Cons but the economy shrinks and their poll numbers go up.

Now, I`m not going to say what I think it was because that would be rude...

bubba said...

I think most left leaning canadians are waiting for the Liberal party to truly renew itself.Truly.They have been given an opportunity to do this without being wiped off the electoral map. Unlike the right side of the spectrum which was destroyed thus had to be rebuilt. There are too many familiar faces and familiar stories it just doesn't feel , new, yet. The people that recruited Iggy, The people in his office,the people organising in Quebec, I think they are the reasons people have not returned yet.

Tof KW said...

I have to say there is a some truth to Bubba's comments, though I wouldn't call the LPC a left-leaning party per say (left of Harper certainly, but then so is Attila the Hun). I have posted here before that the best thing for the Liberals would have been if the CPC won a majority in 2006 (not necessarily the best thing for Canada mind you) as it would allow 4 solid years to rebuild the party without the worry of snap elections. But while I'm on this hypothetical front, the best thing for the CPC would have been picking a better leader than Harper ...then they would have won that majority.

Steve V said...

I agree with bubba as well. I've said this before, that we need more new faces. When people see the same old, same old, it's hard to see it as vehicle for change or something new. It's a very valid point. I would surround Ignatieff with all the young talent, quit worrying about hierarchy and pecking orders, the presentation needs to look fresh and current. The only one's with affinity for the past are Liberals, I assure everyone the public has no such nostalgia or sentimentality.

Eugene Forsey Liberal said...

I saw your twitter description, "Remaining optimistic, in the face of the never ending vacillations", and I thought you were talking about something other than polls...

Steve V said...

What exactly?

Eugene Forsey Liberal said...

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2010/10/privilegewatchers-start-your-engines---liveblogging-the-siksay-motion-at-ethics.html

Omar said...

There are too many familiar faces and familiar stories..

I get so tired of listening to Ralph Goodale AND seeing him occupy a seat on the front bench. I hold nothing personal against him, but his mere presence is such a reminder of political days long past. Retire already, Ralph.

WesternGrit said...

Ralph is one of the "youngest at heart" politicians out there. He's not really that old either. Did you know that he was elected at the age of 24 for the first time federally, and at the time was the youngest MP to ever sit in Parliament? He is very progressive, and is one of the best debaters in our caucus. He also knows several ministries/portfolios in and out (since he's been their minister). He is an asset on the bench, and has held the second highest posts in past governments, as well as in Opposition.

Ralph routinely wins his seat by 10s of thousands of votes. Not bad for a former Tory riding, the most affluent riding in Sask., and a riding in a total sea of Conservative oblivion in AB and Sask.

Should he retire? Hell no. He has lots left to accomplish, and he IS our beach-head on the Prairies. He is one of the most respected politicians on Sask (if not THE most respected politician), and is a politico with a lot of weight in that region.

The Reformers have thrown all their garbage at Ralph since 1997 and can't unseat him. He is like the red flag waving in the face of the Alberta bull - and he pisses them off. That's reason enough to hope he stays on and perseveres... Trudeau had to wave a finger and NeoCons, Ralph just has to "be" to piss them off... I love it!

Omar said...

Oh all right. You've convinced me Ralph should stay, but can we consider giving Wayne Easter the heave-ho then?

Tof KW said...

I'm surprised Ralph was even brought up in that light. Whenever he retires the Grits can kiss Wascana goodbye, as Goodale's been winning that seat over the past few elections on his personal merit. As WG pointed out, ever since the Reform days the western populists have been throwing everything including the kitchen sink at him to 'purify' the prairies of Liberal red.

Oh I know I may start something with this, but I agree with our host's view that Volpe is someone who should consider stepping aside to make way for new blood.

Omar said...

Whenever he retires the Grits can kiss Wascana goodbye

As the feelings are pretty much mutual, I care not a whit about western seats and who occupies them. When that part of the country catches a fucking clue, perhaps I'll feel differently.

Steve V said...

WG

Appreciate the perspective. I'm not saying turf guys like Goodale, but having him as Ignatieff's right hand man does nothing for the party, absolutely nothing. Watch QP when Goodale leads, the howls are ridiculous, he wears the Liberal past, and that's the reality. Goodale should run again, he should have a role, but he should NOT be the main guy on television, in the halls, because when people see him they see an old brand. Nothing you can argue changes that, we need to be sober and objective, think how a non invested person sees the party. When people see a soundbite from QP, I would like to see Martha, Justin, Gerard, Siobhan, etc, something fresh, younger, vibrant, different. Again, the only people who are nostalgic about the Liberal past are Liberals. Part of the reason we don't fully exploit Harper's problems, people see as more of the same, tired, we don't attract the way we can.

bubba said...

Will the party heads allow that transition? Who in the party does Iggy serve? If people are waiting for renewal is Donello going to be the leader. Every step forward looks like 2 steps back from my side of the spectrum. The CPC is not much different but I like reaching to Nigel Wright as a start he has history with B.M but he brings so much from outside politics. Can he focus the Gov't, I don't know. There is not much he has attempted and not succeeded at.

Jerry Prager said...

It may a high probability that if McGuinty really is faltering in Ontario, than the likelihood of no Liberal government in Ontario, would lead to the province's federalist impulses to re-emerge. McGuinty is a provincial thinker, Ignatieff is not. Ontario lived through Mike Harris, Bob Rae is not worst for the comparison. Liberalism and Labour defeated the corporatist Conservative Party of Canada in 1935, when it last really mattered, It will do so again, and sooner than later now.