Thursday, June 15, 2006

Interesting Poll

Just a poll, by an outfit with less than a stellar track record, but interesting none the less:
The Strategic Counsel released by CTV and the Globe and Mail. 36 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.

The Liberal party is second with 27 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19 per cent, and the Bloc Quebecois and the Green party with nine per cent each.

On the surface, the NDP would appear the big winners in this latest poll, up 5 points. However, I think the interesting fact is that Conservative support remains static since the election, despite incredibly favorable conditions. The Liberal Party is leaderless, largely directionless, saddled with a dubious past, and yet Harper remains flat. The Liberals have sagged, which was predictable in the short-term, yet voters have not moved to the Conservatives, instead preferring the NDP as an alternative. So while Liberals may well worry about there own erosion, the fact that Conservatives aren't the beneficiaries should give some comfort. The NDP boost implies soft movement among the center-left, which can be countered once the leadership race heats up and a direction is crafted. Harper should be doing much better, given the circumstances and his shiny new government.

4 comments:

Saskboy said...

The graphing on pollingreport.ca suggests that the Green Party are significant winners in the latest poll. They've almost doubled their election day polling numbers, in just 5 months.

Steve V said...

saskboy

You still have to wonder if the Green support is firm, in that will it hold up during the crunch of an election. Past elections would suggest otherwise.

CuriosityKilledTheCat said...

Methinks many are parking their votes in the NDP and Greens, waiting for a leader to emerge for the Liberal Party.

Sorry, Jack Layton, parking is not the same as lending .... those parked votes will move out and rejoin the Liberals once the convention is over.

Unless, of course, Ignatieff wins.

Steve V said...

Especially if the Liberals craft a coherent environmental image.