The Strategic Counsel released by CTV and the Globe and Mail. 36 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.
The Liberal party is second with 27 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19 per cent, and the Bloc Quebecois and the Green party with nine per cent each.
On the surface, the NDP would appear the big winners in this latest poll, up 5 points. However, I think the interesting fact is that Conservative support remains static since the election, despite incredibly favorable conditions. The Liberal Party is leaderless, largely directionless, saddled with a dubious past, and yet Harper remains flat. The Liberals have sagged, which was predictable in the short-term, yet voters have not moved to the Conservatives, instead preferring the NDP as an alternative. So while Liberals may well worry about there own erosion, the fact that Conservatives aren't the beneficiaries should give some comfort. The NDP boost implies soft movement among the center-left, which can be countered once the leadership race heats up and a direction is crafted. Harper should be doing much better, given the circumstances and his shiny new government.