The question is fluid, but at this exact moment Stephane Dion looks well positioned. Hard to tell the extent of the stop Iggy movement, but also fair to say the sentiment exists, seems to have momentum and is bound to be a factor moving forward. Rae is clearly a force, but as the moment of truth arrives one has to wonder if people truly believe he can win. Despite what the polls say, I still see Kennedy as relevant, although his campaign seems plagued by perceptions. Dion isn't without his failings, but at the same time people would be remiss not to admit he has run a strong campaign, while alienating almost no one.
From day one, the argument was put forth that the eventual winner of this race would be the person least objectionable to the majority. For a myriad of reasons, Dion looks to be that candidate. The hurdle for Dion, can he enter the convention with enough initial support to emerge as the consensus Liberal. There is no question that the Strategic Counsel poll places Dion in the center of the discussion, both substantatively and maybe more importantly appearance wise. Heading into delegate selection, the notion of the "three man race" puts Dion right where he wants to be. Dion doesn't need to come out on top, only get enough support to warrant future "growth". If Kennedy falters, Dion becomes the only real option for those with reservations about Ignatieff or Rae (Dryden maybe, but the odds are too long for real consideration).
The last couple weeks of this race have sharpened the debate, as people slowly come to grips with the fallout of this decision. This weight will only intensify on the convention floor, where I could see people move to Dion for the relative safety of his selection. The least objectionable scenario seems to be playing out right on cue. I actually like Dion's chances, today anyways :)