Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Future Looks Bright

The latest Globe and Mail poll that shows a dead heat is quite frankly a disaster for the Conservatives. Even if the poll is slightly off, and the Tories still enjoy a marginal gap, it really is bad news all around. Despite the transparent overtures, the lack of a credible opposition, the benefit of a robust economy and the “newness” factor, the Conservatives go nowhere. I guess policy really does matter.

The more Canadians get to know this government, the less attractive they become. The simple fact, the Conservative philosophy doesn’t resonate with the majority of Canadians. Canada isn’t Bush country. How disheartening for Harper, given his obsession with attaining a majority.

The really concerning aspect of the latest polling, for the first time since the election the calendar is no longer kind to Conservatives. As evidenced by the last few weeks, the Liberal leadership is garnering more press and greater interest. It is reasonable to assume that the Liberals will enjoy even greater exposure as the leadership race reaches crescendo. Barring some exceptional development, you can expect a Liberal bounce in the polls following the convention, simply as a function of historical precedent. The new leader will enjoy his own “honeymoon” period, that should provide soft coverage and many puff pieces- the press is unlikely to hammer a new leader.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the government looks to the spring budget as their next best opportunity to sell Canadians on their agenda and possibly force an election. Interesting to note, the Liberals may well see the spring as their best opportunity too. Liberal strategists should be ecstatic today, because the Party has made it through the bleak period relatively unscathed, with much promise for the future.

22 comments:

Skip said...

The poll also stated that Bob Rae was the public's favourite to lead the Liberals and to beat Stephen Harper.

Miles Lunn said...

Certainly not good news for the Tories. I don't think Canadians are naturally Conservative, at least not ideological ones. Had Harper run like an old Progressive Conservative he would probably be approaching majority territory, but instead he is showing his Reform roots which don't reasonate amongst Canadians. The only thing the Tories can be relieved by is their numbers haven't fallen in Ontario and in Quebec there are only 10 seats they could lose. Still this is good news for the Liberals and not the Tories. We just need to keep the momentum up.

Shannon said...

Yup - Liberals just keep doing what you are doing. Power at all costs. We taxpayers await your glorious return . After all, you are entitled arn't you? Your entitlements await as your lowly easily manipulated and bribed voters really really miss the abuse.YOu can take us for granted once again. Good tactic, don't let the Tories pass any bills. Hold up the Accountaiblity Act so we can't audit or follow the money that is so rightly yours.
Power baby. The socialist mantra.

Robert said...

I tend to be suspicious of SC polls, but I do think (hope) that this is a sign that Canadians are getting wise to the Neo-Con version of the Tories that they've elected.

I think the distinction between the CPC and the old PC party is a good one to make, and had Harper adopted a more progressive policy outlook, things would be going better for them.

Instead, as Ibbitson put it in the Globe today, Harper is pandering to his base, and that's a much narower group than most CPC supporters think.

wilson61 said...

Maybe it's just my Conservative self, but do you think Canada is ready for a Dipper Prime Minister? Will Jack allow such a thing?

Robert said...

Shannon, that old smear has worn out its usefullness.

Steve V said...

shannon (is that your name now?;))

Absolutely hilarious that reference power, when Harper's team openly talks about an agenda who's sole purpose is laying the foundation for majority. Harper's lust for power is UNPRECEDENTED and our government is nothing more than a marketing strategy. Enjoy the denial.

Anonymous said...

Not a Con,not a Lib & not a N,dip or Greenie.Aren't you guys forgetting about me in this poll.I still smell "Lib$ skunk" even though you have chosen to forgive me.I now have difficulty telling the difference between the Lib$ & N'dips.Way to early to make choices,but enjoy the illusion.

wilson61 said...

p.s.
For the Libs, it's all about beating Harper.
Go Libs go!! Please call a spring election, please...Canadians are sooooo scared PMSH will keep all of his promises.
No one wants repeat criminals and child molesters behind bars indefintely! That's just un-Canadian, way too American.
No one wants clean air, water and soil at the expense of Buzz Hargrove ,just those filthy rich Albertans.
To the Liberal dominated Senate...stall, stall, stall!! until the Liberals get back from this very inconvenient time out. (sometimes Canadians are so stupid, heh, voting out the rightful owners of the Canadian purse)

Anonymous said...

Yup - Liberals just keep doing what you are doing. Power at all costs. We taxpayers await your glorious return . After all, you are entitled arn't you? Your entitlements await as your lowly easily manipulated and bribed voters really really miss the abuse.YOu can take us for granted once again. Good tactic, don't let the Tories pass any bills. Hold up the Accountaiblity Act so we can't audit or follow the money that is so rightly yours.
Power baby. The socialist mantra.


Blah, blah, blah... The more inept Harper's govenment appears, the more strident and vacuous his supporters become.

How long do they think they can fool Canadians? And how long are progressive bloggers going to keep entertaining these buffoons?

knb said...

Here's some interesting news, re' your comment about progressive conservatives, vs reform.

Garth Turner, has just been suspended from caucus. The moderate voice has been silenced.

knb said...

Sorry, here's, the link.

Miles Lunn said...

Obviously as a Liberal I think Garth Turner's suspension will be great for our cause. This just goes to show how much of a control freak the prime-minister is and also the fact Vic Toews and Stockwell Day are prominent spokespersons for the Conservatives shows their true colours. I think the Liberals should approach Garth Turner about crossing the floor as well as they should try and approach other moderate Conservative members.

Steve V said...

Remember when Harper was spouting off about greater autonomy, more free votes, to try and paint himself as a grassroots democrat. Turner's ouster serves as proof that Harper is a fraud.

knb said...

Miles, he's a moderate, but still a strong Progressive Conservative with a long reputation as such. I doubt he'd be interested in floor crossing.

It looks as though they've had him take down his blog already, or I can't get to it anyway.

Miles Lunn said...

Knb - You are probably right he wouldn't be interested in crossing the floor, although at least as an independent, he might vote with us from time to time. Maybe we could even make him speaker if re-elected as an independent MP. He could potentially win as an independent MP much the way Chuck Cadman did. Although a more likely outcome is he would split the right wing vote thereby ensuring the Liberals win this riding.

burlivespipe said...

Yep, you Cons sure got us pegged... power at all costs. Not like your righteous stand of accountability -- of course not for Tories who want to be lobbiests, heck or lobbiests who want to be cabinet ministers! Or the democratic process, where you rightly appoint that proudly lazy non-democrat Michel Fortier into the senate to dig into/watch over public works file... Or the clean air idea, that thankfully we will be able to look forward to more years of people talkin' up the environment while cashing in their oil company dividends (oh lets look into Harpor's Alliance leadership backers, shall we?), or the gagging of ministers and even layabout backbenchers, yep, all canadian conservative-minded people love this stuff, right? I'm sure I've forgotten more of your 'accomplishments' like using dead soldiers' families as a shield to copy Bush-like camoflage of our fallen heroes... How about 'measured response' while a Canadian family laid dead in some Lebanese ruins? The whole ignoring AIDS conference thingy, then vindictively pulling funding announcement for helping those with said disease. Yep, that's the kind of heart Canadian's have. And then there's the whole Afghanistan debate, which our so wise PM gladly hijacked to create division on the political stage. Yep, he's been such an honourable leader.

Steve V said...

burl

When you think about it, that is quite the list in such short order. Just imagine what 13 years would look like.

Larry Gambone said...

Poll after poll show Canadians to be social liberals 2 to 1. The neoCons must be dreaming to believe that we would ever give them a sweeping majority.

Steve V said...

larry

My pet theory is that the last election was the high water mark for the Conservatives. It would appear that we are know starting to see the natural drift against the mean-spirited conservatism that isn't reflective of the vast majority.

Miles Lunn said...

Steve V - I think last election was the high mark for neo-conservatism, but not for Progressive Conservatism. If the Tories had a more moderate leader they would probably be in majority territory. On the other hand I think neo-conservatism has the support of only around 25% of Canadians and another 10% are willing to put up with it if the alternatives are lousy. Social Conservatism clearly isn't supported by most Canadians while economic conservatism is not supported by the majority, but a larger number.

Steve V said...

"I think last election was the high mark for neo-conservatism, but not for Progressive Conservatism."

I would defintely agree with that. In my mind, the only thing that prevented a massive majority was hesitation about the Harper agenda. Given the circumstances, with the outright disgust for the Liberals, we really should have seen a complete rout. The fact Harper was only able to squeeze a bare minority tells us Canadians will only go so far with "kick the bums out", given the alternative. A true PC option would have swept the country.