Monday, November 06, 2006

Dion Had Better Be Second Choice

Two things about polls, you can't always trust them and the devil is in the details. The EKOS poll has been lauded as pure sunshine for the Dion campaign. While you can't dispute the fact that Dion is the clear second choice in the sample, this finding masks other serious problems for Dion:

Delegate Count:

Ignatieff 1309
Rae 881
Kennedy 751
Dion 694

Delegate Count Based on Probable Attendance(% of respondents likely to attend):

Ignatieff 1217
Rae 810
Kennedy 705
Dion 596

Delegate Count Based On Delegate Retention After First Ballot:

Ignatieff 1083
Rae 712
Kennedy 655
Dion 488

Dion scores lowest regarding his delegates actually showing up to the convention. Dion also scores lowest regarding his delegates remaining with him after the first ballot. Therefore, while Dion may be the preferred second choice, any delegates he could pickup may be countered by bad attendance and lost second ballot support. Interesting to remember, Dion is not likely to pickup considerable second choice support until the third ballot, by which time he may appear so far back that this strategy doesn't pan out.

Momentum will be a powerful force, and the above numbers may well hurt Dion's viability. People will not move en masse to a distant fourth, and in fact it may lead to further internal erosion. While this poll has some good news for Dion, I wouldn't recommend cartwheels, because a close inspection reveals glaring problems beyond the headlines.

12 comments:

anybody but iggy said...

By what formula do you calculate "delegate retention"?

Steve V said...

I took the likely to attend delegate numbers and used the retention numbers in the Ekos poll.

Anonymous said...

The first ballot numbers will tell the tale. If Iggy falls below 30% he can't win. If Dion holds his own he's the favourite to become the lead challenger, though not necessarily the winner.

Anonymous said...

but if a delegate isn't going to come, then you can backfill them with someone who will.

Anonymous said...

also, Dion will do well in ex-officios.

Anonymous said...

if you seriously think kennedy will be 150 up on dion after the first ballot then you are....misinformed.

Steve V said...

"also, Dion will do well in ex-officios"

True, but as it stands now Dion is well behind Iggy (although this might be changing) and minimally ahead of Rae and Kennedy, so I see that as mostly a wash at this point.

Steve V said...

"if you seriously think kennedy will be 150 up on dion after the first ballot then you are....misinformed."

I'm just using the same numbers that others are using to say Dion will win. Shall we disregard the whole thing??

Jeremy Kirouac said...

You're funny Steve V.

Anonymous said...

I'm a Dion supporter and I'm doing cart wheels.
I think you will find that unlike GK and Rae supporters, most of us do not have a preestablished 2nd choice.

Anonymous said...

On the 2nd ballot, if Dion is still in 4th (a perfectly reasonable place for him to be, since that is where he is now) then he's out. Game over, thanks for playing. As far as I can tell, the Dion people are all engaged in this fantasy world that has him picking up more then his share of support from the bottom 4, and I just don't see it happening. I'm quite certain that the 2nd ballot results will be consistent with the first; that is: Iggy, Rae, Kennedy, Dion. Time to face reality, my friends. You should be looking around for a 2nd choice.

Steve V said...

anon

It's hard to envision a scenario where delegates, and candidates, move to the fourth place finisher in droves.

jeremy

Just the facts please.