Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Positive Findings For Rae

Environics Poll gives Rae the edge:
If one of the following candidates were to become Liberal party leader, would you be more likely to vote Liberal, less likely to vote Liberal, or would it make no difference?

St├ęphane Dion

More Likely 10
Less Likely 20
Make no difference 62
Don't Know/No Answer 8


Michael Ignatieff

More Likely 12
Less Likely 20
Make no difference 60
Don't Know/No Answer 8


Gerard Kennedy

More Likely 7
Less Likely 16
Make no difference 67
Don't Know/No Answer 10


Bob Rae

More Likely 17
Less Likely 20
Make no difference 57
Don't Know/No Answer

Kennedy has the lowest negatives, which shouldn't be discounted, considering all the talk about a "fresh start". However, Rae's numbers suggest that he can bleed support from the NDP, without losing much from the mainstream. With electability emerging as the key consideration, this poll is pure gold for Rae.

Important to note, none of the top contenders has a higher "more likely" compared to "less likely", so I don't see a ringing endorsement of anyone.

5 comments:

Gavin Neil said...

First, don't you find it strange that no matter which of the frontrunners are selected, people are less likely to vote liberal?

Also, I have no doubt that no matter who it is (even a gaffe-prone amateur) the Liberal party will rally around them and promote them to the rest of Canada in advance of the election. I think anyone who avoids Kennedy because he is not yet well-known outside his political base is ignoring this. No one could pronounce 'Ignatieff' a year ago, and look at him now. Do you think Leader of the Liberal Party Gerard Kennedy will be any different? I don't.

Steve V said...

gavin

Yes, it is hardly encouraging that nobody has a net plus on likely or not likely. Kennedy's numbers are further proof that he isn't known generally, but looking around the field, this might be a plus in the longterm. The big thing, Rae finds more evidence to support the thesis that he can expand the base.

robedger said...

So I think it has become clear: we should permanently not have a leader.

Steve V said...

You might be on to something.

Miles Lunn said...

I think the fact all them say less likely while not good is not devastating. I suspect the next election will be more about voting for who people dislike less than who they like regretably. As long as Harper's negatives outweigh the Liberal leader we should be fine.