Thursday, November 16, 2006

The Next Election

Could it be, the next election, with the central theme a debate on the environment? Recent polls have shown the environment as the number two issue, closely behind health care. The latest Decima offering confirms the surge, and goes further:
The survey conducted by Decima Research found that 26 per cent of respondents said the environment will be a key factor in their vote in the next election. Another 23 per cent said the economy will be their key issue, 18 per cent picked taxes and 13 per cent were concerned about the war in Afghanistan.

In past elections the environment gets lip service, but generally falls off the map as other "issues" consume the dialogue. This reality might explain why the new government made a serious tactical error in not making the issue a priority.

What do these numbers tell us? I was going to make a prediction anyways, but these findings give the idea real weight. I think that this government will fall on the environmental file, as the Clean Air Act fails and calls for Ambrose's resignation force a confidence vote. Harper is already on record saying that he would view a formal attack on Ambrose as a vote of confidence (when the polls looked kind and bullying was king). I can't think of a better scenario for the opposition than to force an election on the back of the environmental file. Opportunity will present itself prior to the next budget, so why wait and let Harper campaign on his strengths? We are clearly in the stage where this minority parliament is losing steam, it is now a question of timing:
Bruce Anderson, CEO of Decima, said the numbers suggest the political parties have to shape the election to best advantage.

"What they really speak to is the importance for parties, as they approach the next election, of trying to set the framework for the election that suits them best, in effect trying to define the ballot question," he said.

It's time for the great debate on the issue of the century. The public is in the mood, the media attentive and the political motivations aligned. Public sentiment should embolden the opposition to pull the trigger and make the next election a referendum on what Canadians actually want for the environment. The abstract issue hits Main Street, sounds good to me.

7 comments:

Saskboy said...

As a Green, I welcome a forced election as the environment as the issue of choice for the other parties. Then when they block May from debating, they'll look like the hypocrites on the environment file they are.

Steve V said...

saskboy

Check out the link because it has some good news for the Greens. I was going to mention May in my post, if the debate centers on the environment she can function as objective bullshit detector.

Saskboy said...

Wrote a post about it already, and it goes live tomorrow about noon.

Anonymous said...

Sheeesh - now Britain has come out with their Green Plan - their target is 60% GHG emissions reductions below 1990 levels by 2050.

Iggy, Dion, Harper, now Tony Blair - all into this 2050 target!!!
That's only about 10% per decade. And we went UP 30% in the last decade.
Since Canada is less than 2% of manmade GHG emissions we're all going to DIE if we don't shut down this country right away to save the world.

That's environmental rhetoric and, guess what, people actually FALL for this!!!!

Gahhhhhh.

Steve V said...

"Since Canada is less than 2% of manmade GHG emissions"

What an asinine way to look at it. One small point, which of the people mentioned moves the starting point to fudge the numbers. 1990?

DazzlinDino said...

There is a reason that the environment is such a hot topic in Canada, and that's because the politicians MADE IT ONE. I find it laughable that the opposition ties into the Conservatives after eight months of reign on this, and equally as laughable that the Conservatives preached for eight months about the "Made in Canada" plan, and came out with the policy they came out with. At my site, we had a better policy in about two weeks than what they had after months...

Steve V said...

"There is a reason that the environment is such a hot topic in Canada, and that's because the politicians MADE IT ONE."

Dazz

I would just add to that the media finally picked it up and put it on the frontpage, as opposed to the occasional mention as afterthought. The environment is sexy now, which may be a case of the media mirroring society.