Wednesday, December 13, 2006

New Poll Results

More post-convention polling, showing a Liberal bounce:
The Decima Research survey, made available exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggested that nationally, the Liberals had the support of 35 per cent of decided and leaning voters. That compared with 32 per cent support for the Tories, 12 per cent for the NDP, 11 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and seven per cent for the Green party.

In Quebec, though, the poll suggested the Liberals had more than double the support of the Conservatives, a sharp reversal from the election last January.
The new survey showed the Bloc with 45 per cent of voters, the Liberals with 27 per cent and the Tories with 12 per cent. The NDP had six per cent and the Green seven per cent.

"The big question coming out of the Liberal convention was would Stephane Dion work as an idea for the Liberals in the province of Quebec," said Bruce Anderson, Decima's CEO. "So far, I think the evidence is more yes than no. He's been established as a leader in the minds of Quebecers and the Liberal party has a 15-point lead over the Conservatives in that province.

"Obviously they're still behind the BQ, but those are pretty good results".

You can discount these polls as a temporary bounce, but at the very least they reveal an openness to Dion, particularly in Quebec. My biggest hesitation with Dion was the perception in Quebec. It would appear that Dion has plenty of room to rehabilitate his reputation in his home province, which is a great sign moving forward.

9 comments:

Scott Tribe said...

Steve:

Your link to Macleans isnt working. This one appears to.

Steve V said...

Thanks Scott, I fixed it.

WestmountLiberal said...

What's also interesting is that certain Quebec Liberals have been quick to cede 15%-18% federalist support to the Conservatives thus a vote splitting issue.
This poll shows otherwise.

Miles Lunn said...

I don't think it is just a post-convention bounce although I wonder what their numbers are in Ontario since by my calculations the Tories would be 5-10 points behind meaning they would probably only lose about 5 seats in Ontario. That is off course assuming the Liberals haven't lost ground in Western Canada or Atlantic Canada, although I cannot see them losing ground in Atlantic Canada and outside of BC where Dion's policies probably go over well, there is not much to lose in the West.

Still it is generally good news for us and I believe with Harper's naturally tendencies to be an ideologue, I am guessing we will have around a 10 point lead by the next budget. The only question is when Harper snaps back to being a moderate for election period, will he trick people again or will people this time see through him. I tend to believe in the latter, but you never want to underestimate your opponent

Dana said...

The Cons have been steadily losing support in BC.

The most accurate of the polls just before the January election had them at 38% and the Libs at 29%.

They're statistically tied again as of early Nov. at Cons 33 and Libs 30 Of course the wild card out here is always that the NDP are never very far behind, same poll has them now at 27% and Greens at 9%.

Orchard said...

Steve,

Glad to see you're coming along.

Scott,

Welcome to the Dionistas.

Steve V said...

westmount

That's a good point on the Tory numbers, and this might not even be bottom.

miles

"I believe with Harper's naturally tendencies to be an ideologue"

I think it is really good strategy for Dion to make the ideological distinction. Hard right and neo-con are hardly attractive characterizations for most Canadians.

dana

It was interesting to hear Campbell today panning Harper's Senate proposals.

jeremy

Coming along? It was never personal, only my own mental math. Believe or not I actually toyed with Dion as my first choice during the summer :)

sheilabee said...

Well we all know what the election platform for the Cons will be "tax cuts, tax cuts" and maybe even more law and order. And of course this newest gimmick Senate reform which is not really reform..he is not brave enough to open the constitution on this one in order to get real senate reform.

Steve V said...

sheila

"Promise made, promise kept" and "13 years". Be prepared to be nauseated at how many times we hear the words in the campaign.