Dion's camp has to be absolutely ecstatic about the first round results. While essentially tied with Kennedy, perception is everything and he makes the big move. Dion looks viable, which is all he needed heading into tomorrow. The speech wasn't great, but that should get lost in the buzz of the results.
These numbers are the worst-case scenario for the Ignatieff camp, especially when people were suggesting 32-35%. Ignatieff desperately needs Brison or Findlay to come to his camp, otherwise he might be dead. A glimmer of hope might come from Quebec delegates leaving Rae and Dion, but this might be a stretch, especialy now that Dion looks strong.
Rae went nowhere, and although he has Volpe's support it remains a big question how many people he can deliver. Dion and Kennedy are only 2.5% behind Rae, which means he has to watch his back as much as Ignatieff. I'm sure Rae's team are on the phone with Brison's people as we speak.
Kennedy is okay here, but the optics of fourth, no matter how slim, don't suggest momentum. Kennedy had a good speech, but the story tomorrow morning will be Dion and that is the last thing his campaign needs. Maybe Dion should have taken the deal?
Dryden says he is staying on the second ballot, and given his speech, I suspect whomever he ultimately supports might be the winner.
The uncommitted delegates must have moved to Dion, and I would be interested to see how many backfill delegates Dion had in place. Obviously, ex-officos helped Dion and the lack of institutional support hurt Kennedy.
So, Ignatieff in BIG TROUBLE, Rae okay but shaky, Dion the big mo and Kennedy a longshot. Tomorrow should be a political junkies wet dream :)