Thursday, July 19, 2007

Good News For Liberals

I’ve been pretty quick to point out Liberal weakness in Quebec. To be fair, the latest Strategic Council poll shows some encouraging signs for Dion and the Liberals, in his home province:
In Quebec, the Tories continue to lag behind both the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals. The Bloc leads the pack with 40 per cent, while the Liberals are second with 25 per cent. The Conservatives are third with 16 per cent and the NDP fourth with 10 per cent, a jump of four points.

The Tory figure is a drop of nine percentage points from the 2006 election.
Mr. Donolo said the numbers appear to demonstrate the Liberals under Stéphane Dion are installing themselves as the second choice of Quebec voters
.
Among francophones, the Liberals lead the Tories by 21 per cent to 17 per cent.

…both parties enjoy the backing of 31 per cent of the electorate, a drop of three points for the Tories from last month, but not a change for the Liberals. The NDP is supported by 17 per cent and the Greens by 10 per cent.

The surprising part, the Liberals lead the Tories with francophones, which we haven’t seen for quite some time. There is also a significant gap between Liberal and Conservative support, which does support the “second choice” notion. One slight caution, the NDP is up considerably in the province, which might be an indication of some bypassing of the Liberals as people grow unhappy with the Conservatives. Havings said that, these numbers do reveal some room for optimism, which is a nice contrast to other findings.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

OK - now we'll be getting more announcements that would benefit Quebec I'll bet.

bigcitylib said...

Don't doubt the legtimacy of the numbers, but I do find it surprising that the Tories are on the decline during the easy-going days of summer.I would have thought the numbers would go up.

Mushroom said...

BCL,

Poll was taken at the end of the Parliamentary session and the Cons were bruised and relatively battered.

Quebec numbers showed that francophones have parked their votes with the Bloc. Pequiste numbers have held with Marois' acclaimation as leader. Cons' support there are now in Charest proportions as both are treading water.

Liberals need to target the Bloc in order to gain. However, with no national unity crisis in the forseeable future, a new theme is definitely needed.

Steve V said...

mushroom

Poll was taken last weekend, ending on Monday.

"With the sitting over, some party members had expected the Conservatives' support would rebound, but cross-Canada touring by the Prime Minister has not done the trick."

A BCer in Toronto said...

Something else of interest (and that's good for the Libs) that the poll also noted was that the sponsorship issue has faded completely off the radar, even in Quebec. Only 2 per cent of Quebecers rated the issue as their most important. That's how the CPC made their gains there, and how the BQ came back from the brink. The most important issue for Quebecers, at 29 per cent, is the environment. Our issue.

KC said...

My god! Wasn't there a poll just a few days ago that said CPC 37 LPC 28?

Im so annoyed with the excitement or disappointment that the release of a single poll causes!

The only "conclusions" I think we can draw from these polls is that the CPC isnt in majority territory and the glory days for the Liberals havent returned yet. Almost any other conclusions are misguided. Yeesh.

Steve V said...

Good point Jeff.

Steve V said...

kc

If it's any consolation, most of the polls are in line with this one, whereas the one with a large gap looks to be an outlier.

In_The_Centre said...

Bottom line, the CPC is stuck with their base, the LPC is stuck with their base and there are whole bunch of undecided's that don’t give a shit and don’t want to see any election before 2009.

This stalemate will continue for a very long time, barring any major development (from a major scandal on par with Sponsorship to a terrorist attack in this country).

Frankly, I am bored and uninspired by all the national leaders at this point, although I must give credit to Elizabeth May and the Green Party’s environmental plan. This is the first time I have felt this way in about a decade and a half.

Only in Canada can we have both national parties being led by awkward individuals completely lacking in charisma and who have no chance in hell in obtaining majorities.

Chrétien was the same, but he had the advantage of riding an anti-Tory so strong, combined with a divided right, that not winning a majority would have been an embarrassment. Dion will not have the same fluke advantages.

Perhaps this will be the new, untested political reality for some time to come.

I’ve never seen so many active Liberals lower their own personal standards of excellence to such a point that they become giddy when polls show we are tied with the Conservatives. This “Yes! the Conservatives are falling and will not get their majority” mentality has to stop.

-ITC

Anonymous said...

Look for these trend to continue once unfortunately casualities from the Quebec contingent in Afghanistan occurs.
With the Lib/Bloc/NPD against the war Harper suffer the consequences.
The challenge is for PLCQ to gain that support instead of the Bloc.

Mushroom said...

"With the sitting over, some party members had expected the Conservatives' support would rebound, but cross-Canada touring by the Prime Minister has not done the trick."

I read the Globe article. That would be wishful thinking on the CPC part, especially with the Van Doos being deployed.

Hope you agree with my assessment with regards to the Quebec numbers.

Steve V said...

mushroom

I do :)

Anonymous said...

Well, well, well - I thought so. An announcement to benefit Quebec -re-opening a military school.

Why am I not surprised.

Oh, and totally partisan speech by Fortier on this announcement. Why am I not surprised.

I hope to hell Fortier loses in whatever riding he plans to run if and when.

knb said...

ITC: Bottom line, the CPC is stuck with their base, the LPC is stuck with their base

Huge difference there. If a government hasn't grown it's base after all this time, there is a problem. Apparently, the Lib's are doing that in Quebec and that is significant. I won't bet my house on whether this will hold or not, but it is a nice development to see.

Steve I think you're right to point out the NDP. I'm sure they will have a platform that will appeal. I think the Lib's should point to what is similar in their platform, while stressing that the NDP will never be the government.

Jeff, agreed. If the con's try to beat that dead issue, I suspect they'll be greeted with yawns.

Anon @5:38, does anyone really know who Fortier is? Obviously, that will/should be a plank in opposition platforms.

burlivespipe said...

But look at the rustling tea leaves... Harpor's bagman announces the reopening of the military school in Quebec, talk that the CONs want to press on Anti-Terrorism legislation in hopes to divide the opposition. Harpor holds the keys on more than half a dozen by-elections, plus bags of loot (legal and ill-gotten). He's waffled his position on Afghanistan directly to give himself breathing room in Quebec (although likely to no avail) and is trying to position himself as Capt Canada... All that 'Canada is Back' and 'Canada is United Again' balderdash.
And don't forget that he planted those time bombs -- the Pequiste who's to dig into Sponsorship mud, along with the new director of the RCMP -- you don't think he's going to ask them to look into the grewal tapes, do you? These two little items could be to create nicely-timed dirt along the lines of his negative advertising crap.
He is a crafty one, but he's working against the clock. The inner circle is facing some intense scrutiny by the CON magic men...