The Conservatives gain another percent this week, Liberal number unmoved, NDP down. The poll obviously takes all the days into totality, but because of the holiday gap, EKOS did a huge sample this past Tuesday (881 people, MOE 3.3%). Because of the size, the results are worth a look:
Less than a 11% lead on this last day. I'm curious if this is the first indication of some return to more normal margins, because we've seen this dynamic before when the Conservatives pull way ahead. With the Liberals problems settling down, in terms of exposure, MAYBE the worst has past. A strong number for the Greens, who actually outpolled the NDP on Oct 9.
In terms of the regionals, another strong number for the Conservatives in Quebec, tied with the Liberals at a rounded off 23%, Bloc at 36%, Greens 10%, NDP 8%. Despite the Liberal retreat, the Bloc hasn't really gained support, those voters seem to be returning to the Conservatives.
In Ontario, another impressive number for the Conservatives at 44%, the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 14%. What is particularly relevant here, and we see it elsewhere, despite the Liberal collapse, the NDP haven't gained anything, even down in some cases. This dynamic is a bit troubling, because it suggests that the NDP isn't part of the consideration, it's all about the jockeying back and forth between the two principles. These Ontario numbers are quite soft and volatile, but a lagging NDP has been a constant. In other regions, we see little evidence of the NDP gaining at the Liberals expense.
Eric provides a seat breakdown, based on these numbers, which shows a Con majority. Interestingly, the Liberal seat total remains in tact, whatever losses are countered by seat pickups over the NDP:
Moving forward, let's see if these numbers hold, because my bias aside, I see a reasonable scenario where the percentages narrow somewhat. If the Conservatives can sustain this level of support, it will mean an entirely new circumstance, a real shift, rather than temporary blips. It remains to be seen if these type of gaps have "staying power", that's really the thing to watch for a month or two out.