Friday, November 20, 2009

Angus Reid

The latest AR poll shows a huge gap between the two principles, Liberal support eroding. The first pollster to peg Liberal support below 30% in Ontario, teens in Quebec. I'd wait to see if these results are replicated by anyone else before inferring anything substantive.

What is interesting about this particular poll, Harper does seem to be enjoying a rebound, in terms of perceptions. This uptick is accompanied by a large downturn in opinion regarding Ignatieff:
Approval Rating: Harper 34%, Layton
24%, Ignatieff 12%,

Momentum: Harper -9, Layton -10,
Ignatieff -41

Ignatieff is now a drag on the Liberal brand. I will say this again however, Ignatieff isn't a "known quantity", at least not to any concrete degree, so the numbers aren't fatal. I'm sure Cons would disagree, but that type of conclusion is just silly, given historical precedent, as well as the length of exposure.

That said, Harper may have benefited from his "tickling the ivories" routine. It's the kind of humanizing event that tends to resonate on a superficial level. Particularly when you're seen as wooden and bland, anything that adds color and commonality works to advantage. It seems strange to say, given all the substantive issues available, this performance is at the root of the rebound. In addition, the failings of Ignatieff have made Harper more attractive relatively.

On the question of the economy, good numbers for the government. 53% are satisfied with their performance, only 40% are not. Given the current economic position, these numbers are surprisingly positive. Part a sense that we've turned the corner, part a lack of alternatives, the Conservatives are in solid shape. In terms of how they view Harper personally, it's an even split, 46%-46% trust his judgement on the economy. By contrast, Ignatieff scores 22%, versus 64% who think he would do the right thing on the economy.

If Liberals are looking for a strategy to turn it around, McKenna offers "great advice".

16 comments:

RuralSandi said...

This before or after the detainee issue?

Donolo's just moved into his office this week....so, I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Steve V said...

Before.

Frunger said...

Your 'rock bottom' wishful thinking may end up being just that. This pollster tends to show favourable results for Tories, so it's still too soon to tell.

On the positive side for your team it looks like WK will be stepping back. If it was on Donolo's strong suggestion then good for him. I commented that I didn't think he had the stones to do it.

However it went down, the Liberals can only do better without his classless antics.

Steve V said...

"Your 'rock bottom' wishful thinking may end up being just that."

You're the one engaged in wishful thinking :)

kirbycairo said...

The worse that Harper gets the more popular he becomes. I imagine that if he admitted to knowing that detainees were being tortured and that he supported it because there were, after all, only Muslims, his support would top 50 percent. Where will this nightmare end??

marie said...

When the Liberals counter the Conspiratory Cons with their own attack ads we all know that they have a lot of ammunition to fire with.

I personaly can't wait for that to happen. Would be a great time now while Harper the Jetsetter is out of the country AGAIN. Sure hope he stays away forever.

Kirbycario, The worse that Harper gets the more popular he becomes.

Because his supporters are pea brained, brian washed and the uglier the Harper reign, the more supportive they become. They are still sitting at their CP's playing their knock them dead video games and probably all of 13 years young.At least the ones I read on most blogs. Adults do not talk like zombies while looking stupid.

Dame said...

This is the weirdest year I ever saw in my long Life .. Nothing stays , nothing holds. nobody knows what is next ... and people are just tired of everything political not believing anything.... feeling we are in a lifeboat let's not move ... We are not over the storms yet .. next year could be worst yet.
It has nothing To do with Harper.s "attractiveness' it is the works of the new media.

Robert McClelland said...

Today's Ipsos Reid poll has the Conservatives at 37%, the Liberals at 24% and the New Democrats at 19%.

Steve V said...

Dippers now championing Ipsos Reid, how delicious. Just remember that Robert ;)

Steve V said...

This seems a little fishy in Ontario:

"the NDP 21%, up eight points; and the Greens eight per cent, down six points."

That's a big jump, what with the source, I'd wait for more.

DL said...

It actually all makes sense. In the last two elections the NDP has had 19% and 18% in Ontario and now with Liberal support in freefall - it stands to reason that some portion of ex-Liberals would have the NDP as their second choice and so the NDP is 21%. I wish it was higher, 21% is only getting back to the support levels the NDP often had in Ontario in the 70s and 80s. The next step is to get up to the mid-20s and start to really harvest seats.

Dame said...

NDP and Greens Road to nowhere or
Harpers Kingdom. /he must laugh his head off now.../

Steve V said...

"It actually all makes sense"

Of course it does. Did it "make sense" when Ipsos had you guys at 12-14% many, many times? Oh no, then it was biased against, right? You're funny.

Gayle said...

I am certainly no expert, but for what it is worth:

I think there is nothing to be worried about with these numbers right now. Ignatieff is practically invisible at the moment. Other LPC MP's are going after Harper and the media has finally started concentrating on the government rather than the liberals.

Frankly, if the last few weeks are anything to go by, it looks like if the liberal leader goes dark, the media have nothing left to do but look at the government.

Let them.

Eventually the LPC are going to have to say what they stand for, but there is not going to be an election for months now, so what is the point? They need to time this as a ramp up to the election. For now, let the CPC take all the limelight. They deserve it.

Dame said...

Gayle is right !!!

Omar said...

This before or after the detainee issue?

I love this headline from today's G&M - 'Many detainees were just farmers, Afghan official says'.

Yep, way to go Canada. There is nothing quite like allowing "rank-and-file soldiers who weren't very good at identifying bad guys when rounding up suspects" to herd local peasants into hands that subjected them to torture. This endures you to the indigenous population how exactly?. If these fellows weren't radicalized beforehand the chances they are now is more than likely. Is it any wonder the situation there is getting worse?