Thursday, November 26, 2009

EKOS

The latest EKOS poll is a slight departure from the norm- these numbers are over a two week period, as opposed to the normal one week sample. We've seen an uptick in dissatisfaction with the government, which the pollster warns may manifest itself in vote intention, moving forward. Here are the two week national numbers:
Cons 36.9%
Libs 27.1%
NDP 15.3%
Greens 11.4%

I thought I would do the numbers for the last week of polling, which is the normal EKOS survey, normal sample size. Not much different, but more "timely":
Cons 35.9%
Libs 27.2%
NDP 15.7%

What is interesting about this poll, EKOS finds a noticeable uptick in those who think the Conservatives are headed in the "wrong direction". This change may reflect some negative opinion around the torture issue. With the issue dominating the news, Conservative believability clearly in question, there's a certain logic to it.

One other item, I noted that NDP supporters(and one "Liberal" I recall) were quick to rally behind the Ipsos Reid poll last week- despite the fact they previously criticized the consistent anti-NDP bias in their polling. It's a silly game, to cherry pick your polls, particularly from what you argued is a dubious source, just because it looks good. This poll reaffirms a wide gap between the Libs and NDP, a more sizeable margin. This isn't to say the Liberal number is particularly strong, but maybe talk of replacing the party as official opposition might just be a bit premature ;)

Looking ahead, with this torture story having more leg than Gwen Stefani, it's hard to see it working to the government's benefit. I'm not predicting a return to tied polling in the near term, but minor steady erosion is certainly a possibility. The looming embarrassment in Copenhagen, were criticism is a given, another rough patch on the horizon. We'll see if the gap holds...

9 comments:

Top Can Inc. said...

The number that really shocks me? 32.3% of Liberals believe the government is moving in the right direction. Talk about losing touch with the base.

Steve V said...

That number isn't out of line.

Steve V said...

NDP and Bloc at 26% on direction, so hardly noteworthy.

RuralSandi said...

I thought the youth vote was interesting. Libs on top. I thought it would be NDP or Green.

Here's the crowd to please and encourage to vote.

RuralSandi said...

Another interesting piece of news out of Beijing today:

BEIJING — China announced plans Thursday to cut its carbon emissions by up to 45 percent as measured against its economic output – a commitment from the world's largest polluter that builds momentum ahead of a widely anticipated climate conference in Copenhagen next month.

The announcement comes a day after President Barack Obama promised the U.S. would lay out plans to substantially cut its greenhouse gas emissions at the summit.

China announced earlier Thursday that Premier Wen Jiabao will take part in the Copenhagen meeting to show the country's commitment to the global effort to reduce greenhouse emissions.


...so what's Harper going to say now? And, how will this affect the next polls?

MississaugaPeter said...

Let's be realistic here. How many votes is Harper going to gain or lose by going or not going to Copenhagen?

He and his gang have determined that they solidify his base of deniers and Calgary oilmen by not attending.

The real story is: Copenhagen-going Obama's 17% reduction before 2020 makes not-Copenhagen-going Harper even a greater environmentalist. It's ironic that a Democratic president has neutralized the environment as an issue here in Canada.

BTW, the Chretienization of Ignatieff has begun (see liberal.ca):

QUEBEC CITY – A Liberal government would restore Canada’s climate change leadership with a firm commitment to keep global warming within two degrees Celsius and create the clean economy jobs of tomorrow through a historic investment in clean energy and energy efficiency, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff announced today.

MississaugaPeter said...

RuralSandi,

Reread the Chinese commitment.

It does not state that there will be an actual total reduction in carbon emission, just a 45% reduction in carbon emission per widget.

As someone who has visited the Red Dragon twice in the past month, whenever the middle-class is developed in China, the number of widgets will increase 25-50 fold and a 45% reduction in carbon emission per widget will still result in a 10X-25X increase in total carbon emissions by the world's second largest total carbon emission polluter.

Don't get me wrong, Mainland China is incredible. Just a 45% cut in carbon emission per widget is not enough.

MississaugaPeter said...

I stand corrected (only because Harper has changed his mind):

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/11/26/harper-copenhagen-summit026.html

Ever the opportunist (manipulating politician), North America's new Environmental leader (not you, Al Gore), Stephen Harper is going to Copenhagen.

The Conservatives 20% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 betters Obama's 17% reduction in carbon emmisions by 2020, so why not go to Copenhagen and gloat.

As I told a few MPs in the spring in the Parliamentary cafeteria, Election in March 2010 (after Canada's first gold medal on home soil and Canada winning more medals than any other nation). WK get back to Ottawa.

For us older folks, we could have never imagined that anyone could get away with what the Conservatives have. And to be allowed to do this in a minority government (where is the majority opposition?) is even more frightening. Can you imagine a what a majority Conservative government would do? And that is not a pathetic fearmongering Liberal ad question.

Steve V said...

Harris Decima poll, with striking similar results:

The poll found support for the Tories at 36 per cent, down 1.7 points from where they were on election day last October. The Liberals were at 27 per cent, the NDP at 15 and the Greens at 11.