Tuesday, February 15, 2011

It's A Trend

Harris Decima out with a poll, which tends to confirm the recent move found in the EKOS and Ipsos offerings. The only caveat, the headline reads "widen lead", but really HD is static month to month, in January they had a 8% lead, so a bit of a misleading headline given MOE:
A new poll suggests the Harper Conservatives are gaining strength across the country and hold a solid lead over the Liberals.

The Canadian Press/Harris Decima survey suggests the Tories have 37 per cent support, with 27 per cent opting for the Liberals, 14 per cent going NDP and 10 per cent each for the Bloc and the Greens.

The survey suggests the Conservatives are gaining strength in Ontario, including the horseshoe of ridings around Toronto.

In Quebec, the Tories and Liberals are tied, with the Bloc holding a strong plurality.

HD notes renewed Conservative strength in Ontario, given their last offering had them touching 40%, one assumes they are in that range for this poll. This means three polls in quick succession showing the Conservatives over 40% in Ontario, a trend we've seen before, but not for quite a while. I've argued forever, Ontario is quite volatile, it changes on a whim, so the question is what is the motivator this time? Will the numbers hold, or while they narrow again, as they have previously? With all the discussion about polls in recent days, worth pointing out, especially with Ontario, definitive conclusions are the realm of fools and/or the "pounce" crowd.

HD has shown Liberal weakness in Quebec, as have the other polls the last bit, so it is fair to wonder why what happened to the gap between themselves and the Conservatives. MOE is reasonable, particularly for a two week, 3000 sample, so nothing to dismiss.

From the Liberal perspective, people should digest without overstating. Important to also remember, these same polls also show some real promise on the issues, which might be the more important findings coming election time. Whatever, this "snapshot in time" does tend to support a move in the polls that we haven't seen for awhile. Attack ads, election threat, people think Shelley Glover is a rockstar in her new portfolio, who knows? But, they have moved for now, let's see if it holds....


Here are the regionals:

•The BQ remains well in front in Quebec. Here, the Bloc stands at 40%, to 19% for the Liberals, 19% for the Conservatives, 11% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens.

•The Conservatives now hold a 9-point lead in Ontario. The Conservatives hold 43% support, to 34% for the Liberals, 12% for the NDP, and 10% for the Greens.

•The Conservatives are now in front in British Columbia. Here, they stand at 35%, to 29% for the Liberals, 19% for the NDP and 16% for the Green Party.

•The Conservatives remain the dominant party on the Prairies. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan the Conservatives are at 48%, to 22% for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP, and 9% for the Greens. In Alberta, the Conservatives stand at 56%, to 21% for the Liberals, 12% for the NDP and 10% for the Greens.

•The Conservatives now hold a ten point lead in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives are at 39%, to 29% for the Liberals, 24% for the NDP and 6% for the Greens.

So, we do see a 4% move up to put the Conservatives at a very high 43% in Ontario. We also see the Liberals tied with the Conservatives in Quebec, again now below 20% in the province.


redgranite said...

We can overcome this!

Steve V said...

I agree, just keeping up to date, not panicking in the least!

Steve V said...

Maybe the best part about these two new polls, all those colossal Conservative supporter morons online, look just that! All this stuff about EKOS setting up the Conservatives, my goodness, what a gang.

Shiner said...

Maybe the best part about these two new polls, all those colossal Conservative supporter morons online, look just that! All this stuff about EKOS setting up the Conservatives, my goodness, what a gang.

Not just online. The article in the Free Press about polls was essentially a Con job.

Steve V said...

I am actually amazed at the paranoia. There are a lot of real cranks online, people were like "I knew that poll smelled funny", just freaking craziness, and THEY BELIEVE IT! Nice base on ya Harper!

Möbius said...

Politics 101, and has been since polls were invented: downplay favourable polls. I'm surprised y'all didn't get the memo.

I simply do not believe voting intentions are that volatile, week to week. People are messing with the pollsters.

Steve V said...

It's really not that volatile, only 10-15% moving around in Ontario. There is a portion of the population that can and does move on a dime, polls are just capturing mood swings. Not everyone thinks about politics like we do, there is little investment, these aren't partisans or engaged moving IMHO.

Anonymous said...

This is depressing. Hate to sound like a "senior liberal insider" but we need a radical change in leadership. Something to differentiate the party from the party of last 6-7 yrs. I think it's about time Liberals nominate a female candidate it would be a good political move since it would make it hard for Conservatives to launch all out attacks as they could against a male candidate. Unfortunately the party just doesn't have enough female bench-strength other than Martha Hall Findley.Ruby Dhalla would have been good and would have helped lockup the immigrant heavy Toronto suburbs but with her recent scandal she is not a viable candidate anymore.

I don't know how Jack Layton sleeps at night knowing that it is thanks to him bringing down the Liberal govt in 2005 we have Harper and with little chance of getting rid of him anytime soon. I want to throw up everytime I see his bald mug on tv

The Conservative Party is gonna get impatient if Harper fails to win a majority now, and he probably will have to resign if the Liberals are able to hold him to a minority. Hopefully the conservatives will nominate a joker like Maxime Bernier and let the Liberals win again.

Anonymous said...

I guess a silverlining in this poll is that BC is looking pretty good for the Liberals. NDP seems to have taken a huge hit there (maybe due to the woes the provincial NDP?). But assuming Liberal numbers rise back to the more natural ~30% nationwide, BC would look absolutely peachy.

Tof KW said...

heracles443, Harper was down by 10 points to Paul Martin in 2005, regardless of the sponsorship scandal. Media were after Harper saying the new CPC chose poorly for their first leader. Everyone was predicting a Liberal minority government at the beginning of the 2006 election.

Remember any of this?

Things change really quick once the writ is dropped.