Liberals 36% (33%)
Conservatives 33% (35%)
NDP 12% (14%)
Greens 9% (8%)
Ontario volatility explains the change, and it's noteworthy that two polls ago, Ipsos had the exact same national spread as they do now. In the last Ipsos poll, the Conservatives appeared to rebound in Ontario, this latest one puts the Liberals back with a solid lead. When the last Ipsos poll showed a swing, I posited that the Dhalla controversy might have hurt the Liberals (something which EKOS seemed to confirm in their three week poll). The latest numbers revert back to the trend prior to that rough week, a return to real issues seems to help the Liberals:
Liberals 41% (37%)
Conservatives 34% (39%)
NDP 14% (12%)
Ipsos shows the Liberals with a healthy lead in Atlantic Canada, a positive trend in the Prairies. Ipsos gives the Conservatives a wide margin in British Columbia.
This is clearly a blip, but Ipsos pegs the Greens third in Quebec:
The Liberals numbers keep edging up in Quebec. Tonight, I read a pile on piece, with the Bloc, Cons and NDP all going after the Liberals in Quebec (first they ignore you, then they...). Two recent polls have put the Conservatives at 9%, but this is the first 8%. I would say "dead to Quebec" is probably around 12-14%.
The big question moving forward is whether Ontario really firms up for anyone. The Liberals are generally ahead, their top end numbers hit for periods suggests real big pickup possibilities, but that's a fluid argument.
Another poll out tomorrow apparently...