Thursday, July 02, 2009

More Of The Same

The new EKOS poll, with a large sample size, shows the Liberals regaining a very slight edge, primarily as result of the Conservatives falling support in Ontario. In what is becoming a noteworthy dynamic, the Conservatives seem to gain temporary support whenever the threat of an election or crisis looms, only to fade under normal conditions. Nationally:
32.2% LPC
31.0% CPC
16.2% NDP
11.5% Green
9.0% BQ

The Liberal vote is virtually unchanged, but the Conservatives dropped 4%. With nothing really newsworthy since the last poll, I think you can chalk this up to the election threat. I seem to recall similar upticks in the past year, of varying degrees, whenever any sort of parliamentary crisis arose. The uptick also seems to be largely an Ontario consideration, which then wanes when the threat passes. In this instance, the last EKOS poll had the Conservatives up to a statistical tie with the Liberals in Ontario. The latest offering returns to a more common theme in recent months, Liberals steady and back out front:
Libs 38% (38)
Cons 32% (38%)
NDP 16.5% (14%)
Greens 13% (19%)

In terms of the volatility in Ontario, more evidence that the vaciliation is between Liberal lead and deadheat, which translates to a pretty solid starting position for the Liberals in a campaign.

Elsewhere, not much real change. Liberals doing well in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, Conservatives in the west.

In a testament to national numbers being somewhat deceiving, Eric at ThreeHundredEight gives the Liberals 125 seats, Conservatives 106, NDP 26, despite the "dead heat" appearance.


Gayle said...

My family discussed politics over our Canada Day BBQ. We are a mix - every party is represented.

The general consensus was that the LPC are now strong enough to go into an election, but that rather than do so Ignatieff should be trying to get concessions out of Harper. If these poll numbers hold through the summer Harper is not going to want an election, and therefore should be more willing to negotiate.

Everyone in the family, including the CPC supporters,gave Harper bad reviews for the way he and his party have conducted themselves.

Steve V said...

I love the anecedotal stuff.

JimmE said...

Say I just noticed your link to Scott Tribe ain't there no more, did he try & sell you tickets to see John Howard?

Anonymous said...

Those seat projections are pretty much the same as when Martin stepped down...only Cons/Libs reversed.

Harper usually polls a lot better when parliament is out - so actually his numbers don't look that good.

We had a bunch over on July 1st, also of different political stripes. The NDP supporters (3) and the Green supporter (1) said they want Harper out so bad they'd hold their noses and vote Liberal.

Gayle said...

Are you being sarcastic?

Anonymous said...

Gayle - I'm not being sarcastic, but I see what you mean by the "holding their noses" - they said that because they really want to support their own party of choice, but to get rid of Harper they'll have to change their vote in the next election.

(Anon 5:10)

√Čric said...

The Conservatives seem to be confident that they can win an election campaign no matter what the numbers are going-in, so I don't think the Liberals would have an easy time getting concessions. They can try it, but they shouldn't be bluffing next time.

Gayle said...

Eric - I totally agree, but they have to find an issue worth defeating the government for.

On the other hand, Harper probably will not be making everything a confidence vote so it will be easier to defeat his legislation.

Anonymous said...

I think the Conservatives will be emboldened by Iggy's recent faux pas. It doesn't look like Iggy's a natural politician. My sense is the Conservatives will rather go early against the Liberals than wait for that reason. They won't want to give Iggy a chance to learn the ropes.