Thursday, February 04, 2010

Stephen Harper as Bob Geldof Not Yet Resonating: EKOS

The new EKOS poll doesn't show much change week to week, although it provides another slight uptick for the Liberals, particularly in Ontario. National numbers, with last week in brackets:
Libs 31.9% (31.6)
Cons 31% (31.1)
NDP 15.4% (14.6)
Greens 10.9% (11)

The Liberals continue to inch up. In Ontario, we see a sizeable lead:
Libs 40.6%
Cons 32.4%
NDP 14%
Greens 10.5%

First time EKOS has put the Liberals above 40% in quite some time. The Conservatives are close to core support numbers. Continued strong Green numbers in Ontario. There has been a big move in the Ontario numbers over recent weeks, the one caution, this support is very soft.

EKOS has the Liberals out front in Atlantic Canada, a strong second in British Columbia, a decent second place in Quebec. The whole picture congeals into a narrow Liberal minority, which is amazing when you think back to just a few months ago.

The bad news for the Conservatives, this new norm of "statistical tie" seems to be holding, across most of the polling firms. The Conservative lead- which actually maintained for the longest period since 2006- shows no signs of returning, they're back to square one. I would argue the government is actually worse than square one, because they must tackle further evidence of all the negatives that have haunted Harper throughout his tenure. Easy to say the Conservatives can turn it around AGAIN, but at some point lasting damage is incurred.

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