Sunday, January 29, 2012

New Nanos Poll

The election is YEARS away. The NDP are without a leader. The Liberals just had a Convention, which generally brings about temporary bounces. The public isn't paying attention to federal politics. Don't get ahead of yourself. Polls are bullshit. Did I miss anything? Can we talk now?

The latest Nanos is actually quite interesting, for a number of reasons. Nanos confirms the NDP erosion in Quebec, as well as a bit of a startling decline in Ontario. Nanos also gives the Liberals a support level above the 2008 election result, actually within 8% of the Conservatives, quite amazing given RECENT events. That the Official Opposition is also in third place an unusual occurrence:
Support for the federal New Democrats continues to erode in Quebec and Ontario with the Liberals showing some gains, a new poll has found.

The Conservatives still lead nationally by eight percentage points, but the NDP and Liberals are now statistically tied among decided voters, the Nanos Research poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail shows.

The Tories have 35.7 per cent support, down slightly from December, followed by the Liberals at 27.6 per cent and the Opposition NDP at 25.2 per cent.

Did I mention it can all change suddenly, and we are over three years from an election? Okay good.

Another polls shows the NDP under 30% in Quebec, as well as some evidence that the Liberals are actually picking up some support at their expense. One wonders how the now cementing narrative of real softness in Quebec translates to the leadership race, does Muclair move some fence sitters who see shoring up Quebec as imperative? If the NDP Quebec numbers were stable, the viability of other candidates might not be such an immediate concern, but given worrying numbers, this emerging reality will seep into the leadership discussion, in a more pronounced way.

Isn't it sad that the once great "natural governing party" is now reduced to crowing about a poll that pegs them at Dion era levels? Check, alrighty then.

In recent weeks, I've heard more than one Liberal speak about Rae's future leadership prospects within a commentary that basically says "well, let's see how it goes". I would argue this mentality does exist within the Liberal ranks, which is why polling has practical relevance. Should Liberals continue to show signs of life, a sense of some rebound, it will strengthen the case for Rae as permanent leader, of that I have no doubt. There is also a dynamic of the polls feeding on themselves, a spate of good news, leading to more puff pieces, providing additional propellant.

At the very least, Peter C. Newman's phone isn't ringing off the hook for "insight"...

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