Thursday, March 16, 2006

Decima Poll's Curious Omission

The newly released Decima Poll compares the results with those on election night. Conclusion: the Conservative's hold steady, while the Grits lose and the NDP has marginal improvement. It is hard to dispute these numbers, however it is curious that Decima fails to compare the results to a poll they did exactly one month ago. The data is presented as though this is the first post-election poll, which it clearly isn't. If you look at the February Decima Poll and use those results to compare today's release the conclusions are altered slightly.

The February poll showed the Conservatives at 35%, while the latest one is 37%. The Liberals are actually up three points to 28%, compared to the earlier 25%. The NDP falls from 24% to 19%, representing a marked drop. Conclusion: Tories have slight rebound, Liberals return from post-election hangover and the NDP are the big losers. Obviously the election results are a far more reliable backdrop for this poll, especially given Decima's record, but no reference to their own methodology is odd. Anyways, food for thought.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Decima is the most biased towards Conservative ideologies. Reporting on them only encourgages them to think someone is actually listening.