Friday, March 31, 2006

Liberal Leadership Poll

New Decima Poll out that concludes the top four Ignatieff, Brison, Rae and Stronach(who decided the frontrunners?) have relatively equal chances to connect with voters. Most of this poll is essentially useless, except for this tidbit:
The survey did find some small differences among the four top contenders. For instance, Mr. Rae was the least popular among diehard Liberal voters, with only 77 per cent saying they'd stick with the party under his leadership.

That compares to 84 per cent under either Mr. Ignatieff or Mr. Brison and 80 per cent under Ms. Stronach's leadership.

But the poll found Mr. Rae could lure away the most NDP voters (40 per cent) while Mr. Brison and Mr. Ignatieff could lure away the most Conservative voters (31 per cent each). At 25 per cent, Ms. Stronach was the least popular among those planning to vote Tory.

One argument I have heard to prop up Stronach's leadership bid is that she would shave off some Tory supporters. Stronach lags behind with Liberal faithful, but more importantly she has a noticeable gap with Conservatives. I think these discrepancies are a function of the fact that Stronach is a relatively "known" quantity, with the accompanying high negatives.

Rae appealing to NDP voters supports the argument that the party can afford to move to the left and still remain relevant. Rae's appeal also confronts the conventional wisdom that NDP supporters will never forgive him. Too early to say much about polls, especially one that omits Kennedy and Dryden.

5 comments:

kevvyd said...

I don't know much about Kennedy, but I find it strange that they would not include Dryden in the poll. He's got name recognition, respect, and an interest in the job.

It is interesting that Brison and Stronach are viewed so differently by the Conservatives. Perhaps David Emerson should be taking note of this?

Steve V said...

kevvyd

You could argue that Kennedy is still relatively unknown for polling purposes, but Dryden's omission is strange. You could say the same for Dion, who is also high profile.

Dryden Supporter said...

Steve,
I thought you and your readers might be interested to see this:

Please check out this link about Team Dryden's first small MeetUp: http://lpc.meetup.com/6/about/

We’re volunteering for Ken Dryden in Ontario and wonder if you might spread the word to anyone you think might be interested in Toronto. Of course, if you or others want to start a similar thing elsewhere, we’re all ears.

Regards,
Jean-Michel Picher

PS Just to stress, the point of this is not that Ken will be there (that's not the plan), but that people who care about the Party (and think he’d be a good leader), progressive ideas and politics in general will be there to listen to the thoughts and concerns of people like you and me and your readers (like kevvyd for example). Then, we’ll pass those thoughts on to Ken as he considers his possible campaign.

Hopefully we can find a way to get people more engaged in the process -- in addition to the politcal junkies we so love and admire in the blogging universe.

Steve V said...

dryden supporter

Thanks for the info. Is that The Madison Avenue Pub meetup? I was under the impression that Dryden would be there.

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