Thursday, May 11, 2006

Poll: What Surge?

According to the most accurate Canadian polling outfit, we have no substantive honeymoon:
The SES poll put the Conservatives at 38 percent voter support, up from the 36 percent they won in the January 23 federal election. The Liberals, who lost power that day after 12 years in office, slipped to 28 percent from 30 percent.

The left-leaning New Democrats rose to 19 percent from 17.5 percent.

Statistically unchanged since the election, this poll is good news for the opposition. Under the circumstances, a combination of the natural positivity that accompanies a new government and a temporarily hobbled Liberal Party, these numbers suggest Harper has done little to increase his stature.

Important to remember that Harper presently enjoys conditions which surely won't last. As long as the Liberals can stay in the game througout the summer, they are destined to rebound as the leadership race gains steam and the favorable media coverage follows. The Conservatives are without real blemish at this point, another circumstance which historically wanes over time. A new government, after 13 years of other party rule, is guaranteed a certain level of initial support. Somewhat surprising that the Tories didn't get a bigger bounce from their bells and whistles budget, a compilation of measures designed to win votes.

This is one poll, others show a bigger Tory lead. However, SES is the poll that seems most rooted in reality, so I take these numbers as entirely encouraging. Harper was bound to survive, and probably prosper in the near term, but the certain future allows for plenty of opportunity to knock him off his perch.


Anonymous said...

The polls will show a fall in numbers for Harper's New Tories. For the first 100 days Harper managed to succeed in his policy of treating with all matters in compartments: concentrating on the five priorities; dealing with the Premiers separately; controlling questions in question period by answering most himself ...

But in the past 2 weeks the wheels have started coming off. First, some of his rightwing fringe MPs have started speaking out (How about them judges, eh?), and bloggers and the MSM have started poking into his sleight of hand deals (That softwood deal was a helluva deal, eh?).

Harper is losing control of the agenda. The voters are more aware of what he is and is not saying. Voters have seen through the sham budget, and the sham softwood deal, and the sham fiscal imbalance talk, and are starting to check out the reality of the New Tories.

And they are not liking what they see.

Reality has dealt Bush a swift kick in the butt; it is about to do the same to Harper.

Expect a free fall of Tory polling numbers once this starts...

Steve V said...

"in the past 2 weeks the wheels have started coming off. First, some of his rightwing fringe MPs have started speaking out"

Canadians have to be asking themselves why we are discussing abortion all of a sudden.