I can't really blame all the spin from Dion supporters that effectively proclaims Kennedy dead, while Dion sits pretty. The actual numbers suggest both men in relatively the same position- bridesmaids. There are a million possible scenarios, or perfect storm outcomes as I see it, but realistically both men share the same fate.
Dion has "growth" potential. All the polls I have seen show Rae with ample potential as well, so that argument is largely a wash- especially when the Quebec candidates remain in for the long haul. Assume Dion finishes third or fourth on the first ballot, that fact makes an en masse delegate move all the less probable. This hope defies simple psychology in my mind, and lacks practicality. Ignatieff will have his 35% to start with and is bound to pick up some support on subsequent ballots. Does Rae simply die on the vine after the first ballot? I think it reasonable to see Ignatieff around 40% or higher after two ballots, which makes the big move to Dion beyond risky- back a loser and lose out on the spoils? People would have to be pretty certain that everyone would move the same way, which seems counter-intuitive, given the many variables at play, not to mention historical precedent. The only chance to overtake Ignatieff lies with the second place finisher, and even that scenario has pitfalls. No one has gone to Dion to date, why would we expect everyone to walk to his perch.
A candidate can't deliver all his delegates, and the desire to back the winner will have some bearing. If you want to dismiss Kennedy, then it would seem Dion suffers the same fate. Afterall, delegates are delegates and positioning is everything. Two peas in a pod. Delegates and candidates aren't cattle, which makes all the Dion arguments more about passion than reason IMHO. Feel free to disagree.