I'm not a big fan of Chantal Hebert, but I think she has a good sense of the mood in Quebec. With that in mind, I find these comments telling:
Of the four, Kennedy is probably the best placed to hang on to the Ontario base of the party. His strong showing in the delegate selection process speaks to that advantage. He also stands to do well in the parts of Western Canada where the NDP is the main opposition to the Liberals.
Despite his shortcomings in French, Kennedy, like Dion, would likely hang on to the Quebec seats the party has. If the Liberals did not lose those ridings last January, the party probably will keep them under any leadership scenario.
For different reasons, Rae and Ignatieff both have potential to increase the party's support in Quebec. At a minimum, either could realistically hope to recoup the federalist seats the party lost in the January election.
Please explain the benefits of electing a francophone leader, who is destined to do nothing in his home province, then contrast that reality with the potential downfalls in other areas of the country. The only way Dion makes sense is if he significantly bolsters the Liberal fortunes in Quebec. Is it realistic to think Dion will sweep Ontario and make any gains in the West? Relative to other choices, I think the answer an obvious NO.
The entire knock against Kennedy, the unknown of Quebec. Hebert posits the absurd, the native son would score the same as the language challenged nobody from Ontario. If Hebert is right, and we do have evidence to support the Dion ceiling in Quebec, then I think Liberals mad to flock to Dion. If Quebec is your thesis, then Rae and Ignatieff look your best bet, if you look overall Dion comes up short everytime.
Remember the EKOS poll that was lauded by the Dion camp? One nugget that has gone largley unnoticed, despite the affection for Dion, even diehard Liberals don't see him as someone that can beat Harper:
Which of the candidates for the Liberal leadership would you say has the best chance of winning the next election?:
Michael Ignatieff 36%
Bob Rae 24%
Gerard Kennedy 12%
Stephane Dion 12%
Alienate parts of the country by selecting another francophone, despite the fact you won't make any gains in Quebec. If that isn't a loser strategy for victory, I don't know what is. I like Dion the man, Dion the leader not so much :)
UPDATE
The counter argument.
10 comments:
"If Hebert is right, and we do have evidence to support the Dion ceiling in Quebec, then I think Liberals mad to flock to Dion. If Quebec is your thesis, then Rae and Ignatieff look your best bet, if you look overall Dion comes up short everytime."
Hebert is wrong. Checkout the 2000 Federal election results in Quebec post Dion's handling of the unity file.
Dion is the only candidate to take on the nationalist vote we seem so desperate to attract.
Re: another francophone, remember Paul Martin was an anglophone. He represented a Montreal riding, but moved there when he went into business after growing-up in Windsor.
But anyway, the contention Dion won't grow our vote in Quebec is just flat wrong. I'll grant you he's not popular with a certain wing of Quebec Liberals. Neither was Jean Chretien. These are the Lapierre Liberals that ran a failing Quebec strategy in 04 and 06.
The question is, how do Quebecers, and particularly federalists/likely Liberal voters, feel about Dion. Here's a Gandalf poll that offers some insight there.
In the poll, likely Quebec voters were asked how likely they were to vote for an LPC lead by each of the candidates.
Dion's negatives (certain not to vote for him) were 38 per cent, Kennedy's were 39, Rae's 37 and Iggy's 33.
On certain or likely to vote with them as leader, it was Dion 31, Kennedy 8, Rae 26, Iggy 19. It's worth noting that at this time the LPC was polling at 20 per cent in Quebec, meaning that, in addition to being the most popular candidate among Quebec voters, he was polling 11 per cent better than the party.
Hebert is letting her political leanings influence how she feels about Dion's winnability. I think that you are as well.
What else are we to deduce when neither of you present any evidence, and your conclusions seem to contradict all available evidence?
"What else are we to deduce when neither of you present any evidence, and your conclusions seem to contradict all available evidence?"
What is Stephane's nickname in Quebec? The EVIDENCE suggests that Quebecers hate Chretien Liberals.
I might add, I have had email conversations with Hebert about her apparent grudge against Kennedy. She has been kind to Dion at the past, and this article represents the FIRST TIME she has every said anything relatively positive about Kennedy, so I think the "politicial leanings" angle is mostly bad spin.
I did write a post awhile ago, outlining how Dion had done a good job of "re-inventing" himself in Quebec. The Quebec press was mostly gracious in the summer, but it doesn't take much for the rat to get his whiskers back. I approach Dion with electability in mind, and my gut tells me, and apparently Liberals agree, that he will at most a good opposition leader.
Jeff
I read your post on Hebert, good job as always :)
Your analysis isn't based in reality since Dion outpolls all of the candidates in Quebec. Its a separatist myth that if you're a strong federalist in Quebec you can't do well there.
Sorry, I'm not putting ANY stock in a poll that shows Dryden as the preferred choice of voters. That finding pretty much shows the poll meaningless in my mind.
Dion is very stubborn. Do you think the Bloc won't pounce on his inability to show any pragmatism on Quebec issues. Dion's stance in Montreal may be popular with old federalists, but it is painfully out of touch with the overwhelming majority of Quebecers. This weakness will be exploited, Dion will fight hard and ultimately the Chretien henchman of old will re-emerge.
On the poll theme, a new Decima one out that concludes the following:
Quebec "Among Quebec respondents, there was no statistical difference between the drawing power of Mr. Dion, Mr. Ignatieff or Mr. Rae. Twenty-eight per cent said they would or would consider voting Liberal under Mr. Dion, 26 per cent under Mr. Ignatieff and 25 per cent under Rae."
Ontario "Among Ontario respondents, 46 per cent said they would or would consider voting Liberal with Mr. Rae as leader, compared to 45 per cent for Mr. Kennedy, 40 per cent for Mr. Dion and 38 per cent for Mr. Ignatieff."
Now look at this excellent synopsis, nevermind the other regions, and draw you own conclusions.
Ken Dryden consistently scores pretty well amongst the electorate at large because of name recognition, it's also a plus for Rae, it wasn't just the one poll. It's something that would come out in the wash in a campaign, as the others become more known.
On the separtists getting the better of Dion, I think he's proven himself more than equal to the task there. In fact, after the clarity act the Liberals increased their vote in Quebec in the 2000 election.
Anyway, the Decima figures would also seem to prove the Quebec is a liability for Dion theory to be false.
"Anyway, the Decima figures would also seem to prove the Quebec is a liability for Dion theory to be false."
Jeff, to be fair, I don't think I am arguing that Dion is a liability in Quebec, only that his selection doesn't give us the edge a francophone really should.
You know, it's time to STOP listening to the polls, the biased pundits and look at gut feelings about electibility and policy, etc.
Take a read of "Calgary Grit's" blog about the polls, pundits etc. since January, 2006.
It speaks volumes.
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