Among decided Canadian voters, 33 percent say they would support the Conservative Party in an election, compared to 29 percent who would support the Liberal Party, 19 percent who would support the NDP and 11 percent who would support the Green Party. This marks a four-point decline in Conservative support since the previous Environics survey in June. The Conservatives’ losses have been matched by marginal gains by all three of the parliamentary opposition parties.
The lowest Con total since the election, the Liberals consistent and competitive.
Some interesting regionals:
British Columbia (MOE 6.6):
Atlantic Canada (MOE 6.2)
The usual leadership numbers:
As the preferred choice of 37 percent of Canadians (up 1 point since June), Stephen Harper remains the most popular choice for prime minister. NDP leader Jack Layton (19%, down 1 point) is now firmly in second place. The proportion of Canadians who name Liberal leader Stéphane Dion as their choice for prime minister continues to decline (12%, down 4 points). Four percent (down 1 point) choose Green Party leader Elizabeth May.
In Quebec, support for Stephen Harper is holding at 30 percent (up 1 point). He is followed by Jack Layton at 18 percent (unchanged). Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe now sits at 15 percent (down 2 points) and just nine percent of Quebecers choose Stéphane Dion (down 1 point).
This is a big poll, over 2000 responses, and enough of sample to have some faith in regionals, outside of Ontario and Quebec. What is striking, the Liberals and Greens in British Columbia and the NDP in Quebec, not to mention the lowest Conservative total since the election for this polling firm.
If anyone listened to Elizabeth May's comments last night, concerning the throne speech, it was pretty evident that there is some co-ordination with the Liberal Party. The government agenda isn't something May "can live with" at face value, but I read her analysis as complimentary to the Liberal position. This angle is something which is flying under the radar, but one that could be the sleeper in an election campaign.
Call me "hawkish", but apart from the Ipsos poll, which is generally Tory friendly, the landscape shapes up to be quite interesting, which is why I don't subscribe to the "hand Harper a majority" sentiment. Quebec is a concern no question, but that is clearly balanced out elsewhere. Furthermore, the Liberals have an ace up their sleeve, which every poll shows to be a real force, the Green Party. The prospects of Elizabeth May pushing Dion, which yesterday's "convergence" only validates, could be pure gold when push comes to shove, in the dying days of a campaign. I'm not suggesting the Green vote isn't real, in fact I believe it is, but if itwere to move, it is hard to see it not drift to the Liberal column. Take a look at the numbers in British Columbia and Ontario, a few points could translate into many seats.
I still subscribe to the idea that the environment is "the" issue for the forseeable future. When you read these polls, and think of the alliance, think of one of the most well versed environmental speakers like May championing Dion as Prime Minister, it addresses the leadership question, it speaks to the environmental voter, it sounds the alarm on a Harper mandate, it resonates beyond partisanship and asks the voter to subscribe to higher purpose than party. The little deal that everyone forgets might just turn out to be seismic once we head to the polls. There is nothing to fear in these numbers, in fact there is room for potential.