Among decided Canadian voters, 33 percent say they would support the Conservative Party in an election, compared to 29 percent who would support the Liberal Party, 19 percent who would support the NDP and 11 percent who would support the Green Party. This marks a four-point decline in Conservative support since the previous Environics survey in June. The Conservatives’ losses have been matched by marginal gains by all three of the parliamentary opposition parties.
The lowest Con total since the election, the Liberals consistent and competitive.
Some interesting regionals:
Ontario:
Libs 38(+3)
Cons 31(-6)
NDP 18(+1)
Greens 12(+2)
Quebec:
Bloc 32(+10
Cons 25(-3)
Libs 17(-)
NDP 17((+5)
Greens 10(-1)
British Columbia (MOE 6.6):
Libs 29(-1)
Cons 26(-8)
NDP 25(+1)
Greens 18(+6)
Atlantic Canada (MOE 6.2)
Libs 36(-4)
Cons 30(+3)
NDP 28(+4)
Greens 5(-4)
The usual leadership numbers:
As the preferred choice of 37 percent of Canadians (up 1 point since June), Stephen Harper remains the most popular choice for prime minister. NDP leader Jack Layton (19%, down 1 point) is now firmly in second place. The proportion of Canadians who name Liberal leader Stéphane Dion as their choice for prime minister continues to decline (12%, down 4 points). Four percent (down 1 point) choose Green Party leader Elizabeth May.
In Quebec, support for Stephen Harper is holding at 30 percent (up 1 point). He is followed by Jack Layton at 18 percent (unchanged). Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe now sits at 15 percent (down 2 points) and just nine percent of Quebecers choose Stéphane Dion (down 1 point).
This is a big poll, over 2000 responses, and enough of sample to have some faith in regionals, outside of Ontario and Quebec. What is striking, the Liberals and Greens in British Columbia and the NDP in Quebec, not to mention the lowest Conservative total since the election for this polling firm.
If anyone listened to Elizabeth May's comments last night, concerning the throne speech, it was pretty evident that there is some co-ordination with the Liberal Party. The government agenda isn't something May "can live with" at face value, but I read her analysis as complimentary to the Liberal position. This angle is something which is flying under the radar, but one that could be the sleeper in an election campaign.
Call me "hawkish", but apart from the Ipsos poll, which is generally Tory friendly, the landscape shapes up to be quite interesting, which is why I don't subscribe to the "hand Harper a majority" sentiment. Quebec is a concern no question, but that is clearly balanced out elsewhere. Furthermore, the Liberals have an ace up their sleeve, which every poll shows to be a real force, the Green Party. The prospects of Elizabeth May pushing Dion, which yesterday's "convergence" only validates, could be pure gold when push comes to shove, in the dying days of a campaign. I'm not suggesting the Green vote isn't real, in fact I believe it is, but if itwere to move, it is hard to see it not drift to the Liberal column. Take a look at the numbers in British Columbia and Ontario, a few points could translate into many seats.
I still subscribe to the idea that the environment is "the" issue for the forseeable future. When you read these polls, and think of the alliance, think of one of the most well versed environmental speakers like May championing Dion as Prime Minister, it addresses the leadership question, it speaks to the environmental voter, it sounds the alarm on a Harper mandate, it resonates beyond partisanship and asks the voter to subscribe to higher purpose than party. The little deal that everyone forgets might just turn out to be seismic once we head to the polls. There is nothing to fear in these numbers, in fact there is room for potential.
15 comments:
I have a weak spot for polls that show the NDP and the Greens both doing really well and both of the big parties losing ground, so this one has me laaaaaughing.
The B.C. numbers are pretty interesting too. Numbers like that make for some pretty exciting three-way races.
As for the Green vote potentially going to the Liberals--that may be your location talking. I can tell you that out west, a lot of people vote Green because they can't quite bring themselves to vote for the NDP but would never vote Liberal.
Given how volatile the electorate is, though, this is pretty meaningless unless we're heading into an election.
"As for the Green vote potentially going to the Liberals--that may be your location talking. I can tell you that out west, a lot of people vote Green because they can't quite bring themselves to vote for the NDP but would never vote Liberal."
IP, lived out west a couple times, appreciate the dynamic :) Having said that, May's opinion should carry some weight, wouldn't you think?
May's opinion should carry some weight, wouldn't you think?
I can't know for sure, because May wasn't around last time, but every political instinct I have says no. Besides, if they're going to value May's opinion that much, they're going to vote Green!
It's an unknown for sure, but the potential is there and I think it does favor the Libs, partisanship aside ;)
Three points: one, the Conservatives have shown more potential growth than the Liberals. The Conservatives numbers are up and down, while the Liberals have remained stuck at around 30. Two, outside of Alberta, the Conservative vote is much more efficient than the Liberal vote. Three, the Conservatives have more money and better ground presence.
As for BC, the Liberals are not in good shape. Their vote is very inefficient and in only one riding, Nina Grewal in Fleetwood-Port Kells, are they within striking distance (within 5,0000 votes) of a Conservative MP. They should however pick up David Emerson’s seat. By contrast, the Conservatives are well within striking distance of 5 Liberal MPs, Don Bell in North Vancouver, Blair Wilson, in West Vancouver, Raymond Chan in Richmond, Keith Martin in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca and Sukh Dhaliwal in Newton-North Delta.
I live in the Lower Mainland, and while I agree with IP on a few of his points, I think he may be overstating the 'anti-Liberal' vote potential among greeners. First of all, when you draw serious Green-cred candidates like Briony Penn and Dana Miller, others will follow. Secondly, unlike a solid portion of NdP voters, many in the Green party understand that time is crucial, and that it may take some compromise to accept that Harper is not the man for the job, and that Dion has the makings of someone who can tackle their biggest concern. That's an impression that the CONs and NdP have been trying to erode, with some success. Yet few that don't support Harper see him as someone with a passion and concern for the environment.
BC is a fickle place, but its also a province where our politics has often mean choosing the devil we know. I'm a provincial Dipper supporter, and my federal ties brings me in contact with many former Socreds and current provincial Liberals that i would generally be at loggerheads with.
It's strange but there is a path that could lead a percentage of votes to Dion under the right circumstances. I don't think it would take a "Lend me your votes" kind of appeal, either.
1993 28.1 6 seats of 32 seats
1997 28.8 6 seats of 34 seats
2000 27.7 5 seats of 34 seats
2004 28.6 8 seats of 36 seats
2006 27.6 9 seats of 36 seats
The Liberal numbers have been remarkably consistent for the province as a whole, but have gone up in some places in the lower mainland at the expense of some of other parts of the province. I do not see any prospect for any kind of Liberal surge.
well put, now even after the unrelenting attacks on dion, by the media, his weakness as a liberal leader, they are still within reach, no one wants the harp, its just dion thats the problem, he might be a good man, but to tainted by now, a strong leader and poof, the harp is gone overnight...
Anonymous;
Who might that new leader be?
Steve V:
I would tend to agree with you Steve V if the CPC were on its own/unallied, but they are not. The problem I see comes from the Layton NDP working in tandem against the Libs as their common enemy resulting in sufficient vote splitting to allow a majority (that is the only way I see Harper able to get one, but to discount that possibility is unwise given that these things have happened in other elections with unpredicted results) for Harper. If the NDP were acting like the way they used to prior to Layton and therefore were standing up first for their principles instead of looking first for seats off the Libs then I would not be so concerned about this, but that is not what we have right now, and the big variable we do not have an understanding of is how many of the loyal NDP voter base is so offended by Layton's dealing with Harper as he has for the past couple of years that they would not vote for him and instead shift to Libs to block Harper.
Personally I tend to think if an election happened now it would result in another Harper minority or at most a weak Lib minority with three very hostile opposition parties, which would not likely last long. Which would likely let Harper stay in the leader's position since another election could happen so easily and quickly in such a situation.
Remember Steve V in elections unlikely things can happen, like the NDP Ontario majority in 1990. Some things I am simply not willing to risk lightly, and a Harper stronger minority to majority is one of them, and right now I see too many elements that could enable it to be comfortable with it, especially given the TS was not specific enough in terms of being toxic to make the best campaign on.
Incidentally, while I agree with you that the environment issue is an important election issue beware of making it more than it truly is and forgetting other major issues like economic and social policy, and that with the right framing the environment can be neutralized enough in an election cycle to allow some other issue to be the actual election question. You are willing to risk your convictions here and that is admirable, but do not let those convictions blind you to unlikely things, because unlikely things can happen in elections, especially in an electorate as uncertain as the one we see in Canada these days.
koby:
The constant bouncing around of the Conservative vote is not a sign of their ability to grow. It is a sign of now soft there support is.
The Conservatives are at 60% in Alberta. Take that province out of the picture and the Liberals have a slim lead. That would seem to indicate that the Conservatives share of support is not as efficient as you would think.
As for money and ground presence the Liberals have enough money to fight a campaign and I would be very concerned about the Conservative ground presence in Ontario and the Maritimes. They just got killed in Ontario, which is very demoralizing, and recent polls are not ones that will re-energize them.
As for the Maritimes, Mr. Williams and Mr. Casey are probably going cause many Conservatives to think twice about working for the party in the next election.
Neither party is in any position to fight an election, which is why there was no poison pill in the Throne Speech and why Mr. Dion decided not to force an election over it.
The Greens should be more thoughtful about the vote issue. It was Dion that stood up for them saying they should be included in the debates. He's shown respect for them and they should do the same in return.
If they don't think - they will get what they don't want most - Harper and their "green" dreams will collapse.
"Three, the Conservatives have more money and better ground presence."
If you look at the one region where the Cons have made apparent inroads (although their totals are identical to the last election), namely Quebec, Con organizers freely admit that they have little ground organization, so your point has no application.
>>>>>"If you look at the one region where the Cons have made apparent inroads (although their totals are identical to the last election), namely Quebec, Con organizers freely admit that they have little ground organization, so your point has no application."
Two points: One, the Bloc vote is showing sides of being soft. Two, the Conservatives have a better relationship with the ADQ and indeed Charest than do the Liberals. In the ADQ supporters they have the makings of a ground team in Quebec.
>>>>"The Conservatives are at 60% in Alberta. Take that province out of the picture and the Liberals have a slim lead. That would seem to indicate that the Conservatives share of support is not as efficient as you would think."
There are 3.2 million in Alberta and Alberta has 28 seats. There are how many people in Metro Toronto? A huge amount of Liberal voters in this country are in Toronto and greater Toronto.
Look, there are good reasons why the Liberals backed down. If it was just as simple as national polls showing the two parties being only 3 or 4 points apart they would have voted against the throne speech.
"Look, there are good reasons why the Liberals backed down. If it was just as simple as national polls showing the two parties being only 3 or 4 points apart they would have voted against the throne speech."
Who said it was that simple? It's a factor to consider, amongst all the doom and gloom.
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