Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Stagnant, Lethargic, Stuck

The latest Decima Poll has some curious results, not the least of which, the Tories lead is actually shrinking:
That poll pegs the Conservatives at 33 per cent, the Liberals at 29, the NDP at 17 per cent, and the Green party at 10.

It suggests the Bloc Quebecois has increased its lead in Quebec to seven percentage points while the Tories have dipped slightly.

The Quebec numbers place the Bloc at 36 per cent, the Tories at 21 per cent, the Liberals at 19, and the NDP at 13.

Decima's poll from October 9th, had the following:
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put support for Prime Minister Stephen Harper's governing Tories at 35 per cent - still well short of majority government territory and below what the Conservatives earned on election day in 2006.

The Liberals, meanwhile slumped to 28 per cent nationally in the wake of three dispiriting byelection losses in Quebec last month.

And it is in Quebec where the Liberal sky is truly falling.

The poll of just more than 1,000 Canadians last Thursday through Sunday put national support for the NDP at 17 per cent, the Green party at 10 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent.

But in Quebec, the Liberals were mired among the NDP and Green also-rans.

Some 35 per cent of Quebecers backed the Bloc, followed by the Conservatives at 26 per cent. The Liberals trailed with 14 per cent, the Greens were at 12 and the New Democrats at 11.

Decima hasn't published the Quebec margin of error, but usually it is a respectable 5-6%, so the Liberal rebound and Conservative fall is noteworthy.

A 7% Conservative lead is now 4%, which is strange, given the circumstances the last few weeks. What is even more staggering, a companion Decima poll(online) which shows Canadians overwhelmingly positive, which should be translating to the government:
Those stagnant numbers fly in the face of a separate Harris/Decima survey that suggests the state of satisfaction with the economy has reached historic levels.

An overwhelming majority of respondents - 82 per cent - characterized the economy as excellent or good while only 17 per cent described it as fair or poor.

Pollster Bruce Anderson says he's been polling since 1980 and has never seen such optimism about the economy.

"We can't recall seeing a situation like this," the Harris/Decima president said in an interview.

General satisfaction with the country's overall direction was also extremely high - 61 per cent of respondents said they were pleased with where Canada was headed, compared with just 38 per cent who weren't.

Anderson says the lethargic poll numbers could be cause for some concern for Tories hoping to capitalize from the country's good economic fortunes.

I first heard a report of this poll on CTV, with Bob Fife responding "I believe the Tory numbers are better". Translation- I'm a closet Conservative who can't except reality and will cling to the Ipsos-Reid result, not the other five polls that mirror this one. Anyways, how frustrating for the Conservatives to see the Liberals in such a state, the economy in overdrive and still NOTHING in terms of growth. I suspect if you were to reverse the roles, under similar circumstances, the Liberals would be in the mid to high 40's. Canada isn't Bush country, it just isn't.

22 comments:

Fred Bracken said...

I guess you will just have to wait and see.

Harper will win a majority and you can't trust those polls because they are run by left wing loons.

Anonymous said...

People can say what they want about the Libs and some of it may be true. However, how can you possibly warm up to the likes of Harper, Mackay, Baird and Van Loan. I would love to wipe that goddam smirk off that prick Van Loan`s face. Why in Hell would you make this guy basically your govt spokesman. Furthermore, this govt simply has no direction except to try and buy votes with useless GST cuts. In addition, it has been pointed out that whenever the Harper`s have to face parliament and the day to day grind that their numbers start to go down. I think Dion is slowly getting his footing and if the party can just stand behind their leader for once, maybe the numbers will start to improve. Also, the Libs need to just take their lumps right now, try and avoid the Cons election traps and hang on until the spring and then take their chances. The nervous nellies need to go have a nice brandy and shut up! Let things play out, support your party and hope for the best. Trying to stick a knife in your leader`s back is not going to solve anything.

nacho libre said...

Fred, Nick Nanos is a "left-wing loon"? By "left-wing" do you mean progressive? If you go by the last election numbers than 64% of Canadians are "left-wing loons", since they didnt vote for Bush-lite.

Fred Bracken said...

NACHO LIBRE, are you serious?

64 percent of Canadians are left wing loons.

That's why they either voted for the Liberals who are convicted thieves, or the NDP who will never become a government.

Clearly, you support a party who stole from you.

The Liberals have no policies and the policies they do have are lousy.

Other than flip flopping on gay marriage and Afghanistan, what the hell have they done for the country.

Harper has done more in 21 months than the leftists pinheads did in 13 years.

NOSTR LIBRE, what did the Fiberals do on the environment file over their 13 years in power?

The Liberals are a goofball party who relies on homosexuals, anti Americans and anti-Israelies to push their homosexual agenda.

They should have kept their agenda 'hidden'.

nacho libre said...

Fred, you are a homophobic moron!

Steve V said...

fred

I noticed in your profile you mentioned "doing your time". What are you in for, stupidity?

ottlib said...

Fred is just following the pattern.

Whenever the Conservatives appear to have a little momentum Conservative supporters flock to the liberal part of the blogsphere to crow about it and say a Harper majority is in the bag.

Then reality sets in, they get upset and they flock to the liberal part of the blogsphere to hurl insults at Liberals.

Although Fred has gone even further and leveled his insults at the majority of Canadians. Nice.

It must really frost your ball, eh Fred, that Canadians are not falling for the Bushian techniques being practiced by the Conservatives.

Robert Fife must be thinking the same thing as well considering both the content and the tone of his spin on this poll.

The frustration amongst Conservatives is almost palpable.

With regard to the poll, it might be one reason why they brought the economic update forward. The only time the Conservatives have been near 40% was after the last budget and after the Throne Speech. Maybe they were hoping that the two events together might help them stay near that magic mark for more than a week.

Of course, if they do stay there the Opposition will not bring them down so they will just expend all of their ammunition and watch their support drift downward again.

Liberals are regretting Mr. Chretien's changes to the election financing laws but I bet Mr. Harper is regretting passing the law that fixes election dates.

ottlib said...

steve:

I just re-read your post and clicked the first link.

The Conservatives are at 21% in Quebec? Just two points ahead of the Liberals? The Liberals went up 5 points while the Conservatives went down 5, so they are heading in opposite directions?

How could this be? The Liberals are supposed to be in free-fall in Quebec.

It just goes to show that you can never trust the pundits. Then again the changes in both are within the regional MOE so it is not as impressive as it looks.

Nationally, the changes in each of the numbers is within the MOE so in fact nothing has changed.

The title of your post is very appropriate and it describes what the situation has been for almost a year.

Steve V said...

ottlib

The Quebec numbers are surprising, but Gregg alluded to this change last week, on one of the political shows. Gregg said something about Afghanistan bleeding support.

Raphael Alexander said...

I'm a closet Conservative who can't except reality

Is that a bit of an unintentional double entendre? :)

Anonymous said...

The frontpage coverage this week in Quebec newspapers of more torture allegations in Afghanistan won't help the Conservatives either.

wilson said...

I am pleasantly surprised that the Cons numbers are 'stuck'. When the discussion went from end of combat mission in Feb 2009, to a panel discussion with a to-be-determined mission with a new end date of 2011, I thought the drop would be bigger.

I also thought the Libs numbers would get over 29% with weeks of endless talk of a 'Harper majority a sure thing'.

Neither happened.

Economists can bark, and Libs can echo that bark all they want, Canadians hate the GST.
Canadians love tax cuts and paying down the debt (except Jack's bunch).
All parties want to tackle child poverty. My guess is the budget will target this, and other common interests making the budget very hard to defeat.

Steve V said...

"I am pleasantly surprised that the Cons numbers are 'stuck'. When the discussion went from end of combat mission in Feb 2009, to a panel discussion with a to-be-determined mission with a new end date of 2011, I thought the drop would be bigger."

Sure you are.

Fred Bracken said...

If you really believe the polls put forward by left wing loons, then why don't you tell your hero DION to pull the plug and call an election.

Are you surprised that a conservative like myslef would visit liblogs.ca?

Of course you are, because you only want people who think like yourselves to give their opinion.

However, I love to debate pinhead loons like followers of the FIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA.

The Liberals are thieves who condone the immoral behaviour of homosexuality.

Not just that but the far left loons like to coddle terrorists like Omar Khadr.

A perfect example is how the Liberal organ called CTV put Omar's mom on primetime.

Then Paula Todd had the nerve to put all left wing loons on the panel.

Out of 8 people on the panel, 7 were pinheads.

CTV should be ashamed of themselves for giving a family of terrorists another 15 minutes of shame.

Have a great night and enjoy Halloween.

rockfish said...

Hey Fred, Wilma wants me to remind you to not forget those bronto burgers...
As to Fibs, how about Income Trusts, accountability, open and accessible government, stringent campaign reform (well, unless it means allowing CONs to kite cheques to riding associations, or to shuffle money and ad buys between local and national), creating daycare spaces, commitment to the environment, permitting parliament to govern, giving MPs a stronger role to play (like bathing my kitties, washing my car, vacuuming out the timbit crumbs from my lazyboy) etc ad infinitum.
Oh, and lets not forget their effort to bribe a mayoralty candidate to withdraw so that their chosen dude can come in and cancel a rapid transit project. Yeah, we're committed to the environment -- environment of helping our own HAHHAHAHAHA!
You CON windbags are a hoot!
I think your bowling shoes are too tight.

nacho libre said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
nacho libre said...

Fred, you embody the whole reason why your party will never win a majority, because the majority of Canadians know deep down what your party really stands for. You are not hurting Liberals when you make those kinds of comments, only yourself and your party. Seek professional help.

Steve V said...

"Fred, you embody the whole reason why your party will never win a majority"

Fred is also part of the reason bell curves exist.

Anonymous said...

Gentlemen, you're probably not aware of the grand right-wing conspiracy going on.
On orders from Harper, we're all telling the polsters we prefer the Liberals, to help Stephan get over his electile disfunction.

Anonymous said...

Fred Bracken just let out of the "institution" if you know what I mean? Obviously not a thinker.

Well, this country has done pretty well under the so-called left-wing loons since 1867. Fred Bracken should quit whining and thank the left-wing loons for his quality of life in Canada - what an ingrate.

bigcitylib said...

Its polls like this that make me think Dion is doing the right thing with his whole "discretion is the better part of valor" strategy. The only thing that bugs me is that the "new normal" puts the Libs below 30 per cent. I'd like to know what is the cause (is it all in Quebec?)

Steve V said...

"Its polls like this that make me think Dion is doing the right thing with his whole "discretion is the better part of valor" strategy."

We agree to disagree :)