Friday, October 26, 2007

What If?

Having resigned myself to the fact Al Gore will not run for President, I still found this poll very intriguing:

DEMOCRATIC CHOICE FOR THE NOMINATION
(Among Democratic primary voters)

....Now... 9/07... 8/07

Clinton 51%.. 44%.. 45%

Obama 23.. 26.. 25

Edwards 13.. 17.. 14

All of the national polls show Clinton pulling away to a commanding position. What is different, the early primary states are now also showing the same Clinton trend. What is beginning to emerge, a feeling of inevitability, that may be hard to counter.

However, what if Gore was added to the equation?:
DEMOCRATIC CHOICE FOR THE NOMINATION
(Among Democratic primary voters)

Clinton 37%

Gore 32

Obama 16

Edwards 7

A pretty amazing response, Gore very, very competitive. What is also interesting, while Clinton has very high negatives, Gore's have dropped considerably:
OPINION OF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
(Among registered voters)

Clinton:

All Voters..... Democratic Primary Voters


Favorable 43%.... 72%

Not favorable 41.... 15

Undecided/DK 16.... 12


Gore:

(Among registered voters)

Now.... 6/2007.... 1/2007.... 10/2000

Favorable 46%... 34%... 31%... 46%
Not favorable 29... 40... 49... 35...
Undecided/DK 24... 25... 20... 17

Gore is now far less divisive than Clinton, which will be a determining factor as the reality of her nomination sets in. Again, it will never happen now, but Gore's entrance would be a seismic shift, in a race that increasingly looks like a coronation.

9 comments:

Joseph said...

The moment Gore threw his hat in the ring, his negatives would rise. Don't get me wrong, Americans do respect him - even those who would not vote for him in a million years for the most part give him credit (now).

But a sizable portion of that (enough to make those low negatives disappear) would vanish the moment he became a candidate. Because a portion of those positve feelings is because he isn't a candidate - they respect him stepping outside the traditional political role and rallying for a cause.

That would change instantly if he were a candidate, refocusing all the debate on himself.

RuralSandi said...

Remember Thompson did well before declaring his run - now it's a different picture.

By the way - is it John Edwards or his wife who's running - it's hard to tell. Is it John or Elizabeth who has the ambition? Hard to tell. We hear more from her than her hubby - it makes him look weak to me. She's becoming obnixious.

Steve V said...

joseph

I don't disagree about Gore's negatives, the neocon's would go ballistic if he ran and the smear would begin.

Steve V said...

"Remember Thompson did well before declaring his run - now it's a different picture."

Thompson is a poor campaigner, a subpar debater, so I'm not sure the analogy fits exactly.

daniel said...

Does anyone else get the sense that, the more inevitable a Clinton nomination becomes, the more inevitable it is that the next president will be another Republican?

Steve V said...

daniel

I think you just articulated the last roadblock to Clinton getting the nomination. I suspect that will be Obama's rallying cry in the dying days.

Dame said...

If Gore enters it HE WOULD BE the divisive Force .. among democrats.. I think he won't enter exactly for this reason..and it shows he is very wise .

marta

Niles said...

Can a Vice President be picked from non-candidates? he's been there once already and what if the job is re-written to give him some real power, especially as czar on the environment? It's not like Cheney hasn't knocked it all out of shape from where Gore had it before.

There is also the possibility of him coming into Cabinet isn't there? There are many ways he can get a voice in a Democratic mandate

Steve V said...

"Can a Vice President be picked from non-candidates?"

Certainly, actually Obama has already mused about Gore being a VP, although he said it would probably be a step down from his current perch. Obama did indicate that Gore could be part of his cabinet.