Conservative Fading In Ontario

I finally saw the internals for the latest Ipsos poll, which helps explain why the two parties are statistically tied. I've heard a couple of lame commentaries, trying to argue how Harper's attack Ontario strategy may pay dividends. Yesterday, I characterized Harper's olive branch to McGuinty as an admission of failure. Conservative supporters have a hard time admitting political missteps, it's always part of some greater plan, that only the mystical can comprehend. Well, back on planet earth, you just need an extensive scan of Ontario papers, national ones for that matter, to see that the Flaherty assault was landing with a thunderous thud. And, you need some basic math:

Ontario:

Liberals 43%
Conservatives 33%
NDP 15%

This result from Ipsos, the Conservative holdout, the only operation that consistently showed the Cons out front in Ontario.

It was only two months ago, that the Conservatives had legitimate claims to argue momentum in Ontario, many outfits showed a close fight, some even supported Ipsos numbers. If anyone doubts the impact, the complete and utter disaster, that is attack Ontario, just look at the numbers a mere seven weeks ago:

the Tories enjoy the lead with 39-per-cent support while the Liberals trail at 33 per cent.

That's right, a full 16 point swing in voter support from then to now, a seismic shift by an objective measure, and anyone with a hint of common sense knows why. To add context, let's not forget that this erosion has occured at a time when the Liberals were abstaining, a flurry of negativity.

Yes, the strategic genius, has effectively killed any momentum the Conservatives were starting to enjoy in Ontario, and set them back to levels which could take them out of power. Brilliant I say, we play checkers while the master plays chess. Back to the drawing board.