Monday, March 10, 2008

Ipsos Poll

On the face of it, the new Ipsos poll looks pretty much the same as their last poll, with a slight narrowing between the Conservatives and Liberals. However, there is a fairly significant shift in the regional numbers that should give Conservatives pause. The national numbers:

The ruling Conservatives have the support of 35% of decided voters, while the Liberals remain in second place with 31% support. The NDP have the support of 15% of Canadians, while the Green Party would be the choice of 9%

Tories down one, Liberals up one, not much change from a poll two weeks ago. However, when you look at the Ontario numbers, you see a noteworthy shift, the largest I can remember for an Ipsos poll. Ipsos had the Conservatives at 37%, the Liberals 34%, the NDP 14%, Greens 13% just two weeks ago. Today's poll presents a far different picture:
In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals at 40% support lead the Conservatives (31%), while the NDP (16%) and Green Party (12%) lag behind.

A seismic shift, particularly for an outfit who's Ontario numbers are generally for favorable for the Conservatives. As a sidenote, Ipsos Cadman poll also found that Harper scored lowest on believability and suing the Liberals in Ontario. Couple that with the federal government's jihad against McGuinty (yes I said it) and the numbers start to make sense. A full 12 point swing and a situation which makes the national numbers somewhat misleading.

If not for Conservative support increasing to ridiculous proportions in Alberta (74% from 61% two weeks ago), on the heels of the provincial election, the national numbers would have tightened further. Last time I checked, the Conservatives held all the Alberta seats, which makes their massive showing pretty much irrelevant to the bigger picture. As a matter of fact, when you factor in the regional disparities and focus on seats, this poll presents a scenario where the Liberals would be favored to form a minority.

8 comments:

WesternGrit said...

Good analysis. I can't wait until the newer numbers from Quebec - after the media starts propagating the "buying votes" scheme the Cons are playing out in that province. This new scandal amounts to pure vote buying in a lot of people's opinions, and if Quebecers were angry about the way they though Liberals were trying to secure their "no" vote, well, I just think this skewed spending in Conservative ridings is much worse. Particularly since it most definitely is a party "action plan", and not just low level party operatives being "overzealous".

Steve V said...

This poll has the Libs second in Quebec, at 26%, which is the highest number I've seen in the last year. Interesting, watching QP today, the Bloc keeps hammering away at Cadman, Duceppe turned a brillant red today.

Anonymous said...

March 10. 2008: I live in Quebec and they are a shrewd lot of voters. Bribing a candidate on his death bed doesn't appeal to them. They were upset with the Liberal scandal but this makes them really feel ill. I believe they will turn back to the Liberals as they realize that "les rouges" brought them lots of recognition and they really don't trust Harper and his band of phonies!

Miles Lunn said...

Not surprised. I don't know what was going through Harper and Flaherty's mind when they thought bashing Ontario would gain them votes. The West, asides from BC is already predominately Conservative and BC has far fewer seats than Ontario. Bashing Atlantic Canada may not cost a party a lot in terms of seats, but Ontario will. Still the numbers are all over the place and who knows what the big issue will be when we go to an election. Still the Tories being the low 30s in Ontario is pretty much their floor and cannot be good news for them.

Steve V said...

miles

It seems like common sense that picking fights with the Premier of Ontario is a non-starter politically. Whether people like McGuinty or not, there is a tendency to rally around someone who is defending the interests of his province. Flaherty has an axe to grind with the provincial Liberals, and Harper just reinforces the growing belief that this government isn't Ontario friendly.

There was a poll a couple weeks ago that showed Ontarians sided with McGuinty 2/1. That very night Flaherty was on the east coast bashing McGuinty, followed by Harper a few days later. These guys are tone deaf on this issue, all they do is arm McGuinty, give the federal Liberals talking points, basically alienate. Nobody buys it as productive, friendly advice, the pattern shows a lack or respect, "small man" cracks, just a nasty edge, that is a decided turnoff. I've said it a million times, the Liberals biggest asset is the self-inflicted wound routine of the Conservatives.

knb said...

Steve, the Ontario bashing is really odd, but I think it goes to a wider view.

Flaherty tonight used the term Liberal deficit frequently. It was aimed at McTeague and his bill, but this has been a theme for them.

It's this Alice in Wonderland stuff...they believe if they say it enough the public will buy that the Lib's are fiscally irresponsible.

It's bizarre. It's one thing to suggest a bill may cause that but quite another to suggest that the Lib's are the Party of deficit.

Beyond bizarre really.

Facts apparently mean nothing to these guys.

Steve V said...

knb

I heard Flaherty raising the deficit alarm (he does know deficits). The sad part, Flaherty has cut things so close, and this should really concern people, that any extra expenditure, unseen event, and we are back in the red. His argument speaks to real uncertainty moving forward, I've already heard a couple economists saying his forecasts might be "rosy".

BTW, is it just me, or does he come across as perpetually bitter and angry? Maybe it isn't the message, but the messengers here.

burlivespipe said...

Flaherty spent so many years with his 'dunce cap' on too tight that it's permanently sucked the oxygen out of his brain.
As to the poll, it's just amazing considering what a lame job our team has been doing (outside of raising the Cadman issue and getting under Harper's skin)... If we had a real good Rat Pack at our disposal and half-assed leadership, we could just be courting a little momentum. But...