The ruling Conservatives have the support of 35% of decided voters, while the Liberals remain in second place with 31% support. The NDP have the support of 15% of Canadians, while the Green Party would be the choice of 9%
Tories down one, Liberals up one, not much change from a poll two weeks ago. However, when you look at the Ontario numbers, you see a noteworthy shift, the largest I can remember for an Ipsos poll. Ipsos had the Conservatives at 37%, the Liberals 34%, the NDP 14%, Greens 13% just two weeks ago. Today's poll presents a far different picture:
In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals at 40% support lead the Conservatives (31%), while the NDP (16%) and Green Party (12%) lag behind.
A seismic shift, particularly for an outfit who's Ontario numbers are generally for favorable for the Conservatives. As a sidenote, Ipsos Cadman poll also found that Harper scored lowest on believability and suing the Liberals in Ontario. Couple that with the federal government's jihad against McGuinty (yes I said it) and the numbers start to make sense. A full 12 point swing and a situation which makes the national numbers somewhat misleading.
If not for Conservative support increasing to ridiculous proportions in Alberta (74% from 61% two weeks ago), on the heels of the provincial election, the national numbers would have tightened further. Last time I checked, the Conservatives held all the Alberta seats, which makes their massive showing pretty much irrelevant to the bigger picture. As a matter of fact, when you factor in the regional disparities and focus on seats, this poll presents a scenario where the Liberals would be favored to form a minority.