Election-shy Liberals are suddenly threatening to bring down Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government as early as next month over legislation to implement the latest federal budget.
The about-face Tuesday followed several weeks of humiliation for Liberals, who've been finding novel ways to avoid defeating the government on crucial confidence votes – including a series of votes on the very budget that they're now warning could prompt a spring election...
Actually, others are suggesting the same:
Some Liberals in high places now believe there's a window of fresh opportunity opening that could make what seemed like a mission-impossible takedown a theoretical possibility.
But Liberal hawks with influence dissected the latest Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Canwest News Service and from the raw numbers, mysteriously deciphered 123 Liberal seats versus 114 for the Conservatives. Unless the Libs suffer a St. Paddy's Day massacre on Monday and lose more than one of the four by-election contests, they predict spring election fever will continue to rise.
The most comforting line I've read recently, that people might just get it:
Privately, a good number of Liberal MPs, including deputy leader Michael Ignatieff, have been urging Dion to pull the plug. They fear that propping up the government has made the party appear spineless and unprincipled, a perception that will only get worse the longer Liberals refuse to take a stand.
Worse indeed, in fact we are almost at the point of no return. This is as good as it gets.
14 comments:
Well, if Ipsos-Reid is being dissected as a +9 plurality with a several point deficit overall in percentages (and I get that Alberta skews the results), then the Nanos dead heat poll surely would give an evern bigger plurality.
But then, you're preaching to the choir to me about an election, Steve
BTW.. did you see my tagging of you at my site on the Quirks meme? I expect to see something here ;)
Scott, the regionals for the Liberals were very encouraging, I actually saw minority potential. When Ipsos has the Liberals up big in Ontario, that tends to make the eyes wider.
Steve,
You know my view on this.
The LPC should have pulled this lever long ago.
If they hope to win they have to scare Ontario voters witless. That was also true last year.
Let's see if they do it.
Tomm
"If they hope to win they have to scare Ontario voters witless."
They don't have to scare anyone, Flaherty, Harper and Van Loan are doing that all by themselves.
It's time. Get the by elections done then let's go.
Steve, Steve, Steve, Steve,
With the help of the MSM and Dalton, Flaherty's rather true and mundane statements seem to take on the look of the evil overlord.
But let's ignore this.
Ontarians(?) (certainly shows my ignorance doesn't it!) need to see Harper as a vindictive, petty, tyrant that has at his core, an interest in dismantling the Ontario legacy of managing Canada and will stop at, and stoop to nothing on his path to do it.
That is what the LPC needs to do.
If they can succeed in doing that, they can frighten enough people into voting elsewhere or staying home so that the Tory fortunes in Ontario don't rise.
I don't think they can actually increase their number of seats.
The LPC also has to fend off the Greens and the NDP from nibbling their left flank.
Good luck with that, considering the "Loyal Abstention" history of the last 6 months.
I, of course, are hoping for a Harper majority that will begin a renewal of Canada that will set a course for the next 20 years.
But that's just me.
Tomm
knb,
Then why not before the by-elections? A waste of taxpayer's money in my opinion. Win on March 17 and then pull the plug immediately after the Easter break.
Note the speaker. It is John McCallum who is unfairly taking heat for the Grits' joke tactics during the budget. One who may have to cede the Shadow Finance post to Martha once she gets in.
The time frame for the election will be sometime in June with both sides mutually agreeing to let the House fall in May. Harper needs another throne speech for September and it is generally assume he will have to go to the polls before it can be presented in the House.
BTW Steve, I also tagged you a year ago. Still waiting ;)
I hope to god the Liberals have the good sense not to go. This is party that is utter disarray; they have no platform to speak of, have dismal fund raising numbers, have nothing in the bank at the riding level, have a leader who still struggles mightily with English, they have not moved up in the polls in 2 years and they punted away the only wedge issue, viz., Afghanistan, that might have worked for them. Barring an absolute collapse in the Ontario, there is no way the Conservative will loose the next election. It is open secret among party operatives in BC that the Liberals are dire straights here. Sure they may hold onto Quadra, but there is a genuine fear that they will loose up to 5 seats to the Conservatives. North Vancouver, Richmond, Newton North Delta are all on the razors edge. Keith Martin will be in for a fight in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca and West Vancouver is as good as gone. Blair Wilson’s status is still very much in the air, his name has been dragged through the mud and he is being sued by his father in Law. On the flip side of things, the Liberals stand to pick up only one seat from the Conservatives and that is a seat they won last time, viz., David Emerson’s. Alberta, Sask, Manitoba outside of Winnipeg, Quebec outside of Montreal are a complete gong show. That leaves the Maritimes, where the Conservatives, outside of NFLD anyway, are polling higher than they have in years.
If the Liberals had half a brain, and very much doubt the they do, they would under go a period of policy renewal, a la what the Conservatives did in the Summer of 2005, hope that Obama wins the Democratic nomination and plan an election to coincide with the US election.
Steve... according to one of your great Liberal leaders of the Blogosphere, people like you are the problem... check this out
http://jasoncherniak.blogspot.com/2008/03/what-are-you-doing-to-help.html
Sounds like a certain blogger is lining up at the buffet to eat his own.
You won't know the Liberal policies until the election campaign, if and when it comes.
They wouldn't be so stupid as to let Harper have a chance to copy and rename policies.
Remember - Harper didn't bring out his policies in the last election until the campaign and he announced one per day.
I'm being bombarded with flyers from my local Cons MP - mostly trash, bash and questionnaires (polling of taxpayer monies again). Why can't they just put all their questions on one piece of paper - why "4" flyers?
The Rae folks are in charge.
The Rae folks did not want an election prior to the byelection.
The Rae folks have their leader on the front bench (o.k., in a week), so they are now ready to force an election.
The Rae folks will insure that December's biennial convention is a leadership convention.
>>>>> You won't know the Liberal policies until the election campaign, if and when it comes.
They wouldn't be so stupid as to let Harper have a chance to copy and rename policies.
Remember - Harper didn't bring out his policies in the last election until the campaign and he announced one per day.
Martin’s mad as hell tour was still going strong in the fall of 2005. He was for example busy firing Dingwall for no good reason. The Conservatives had every reason to let the good times role. Why announce policy when your opponent is busy blasting holes in foot?
Liberals are in an entirely different situation. The Conservatives are not a bunch of Martinite masochists and unlike the Conservatives the Liberal fund raising numbers are terrible. It is pie in sky nonsense to believe that if only the brass where able to stumble across some new and wonderful way of asking people for money that the Liberal confers would suddenly be full. The only way the Liberal fund raising numbers are going to increase is if they introduce some bold new policy. Forget, all this fluff about a fairer greener Canada.
By the way, the Liberal's plan to introduce policy only in January 2006 sure worked out well for them. As for the Conservatives, one of the reasons why their platform got a good airing was because the Liberals sat on their laurels all through December. What are the chances of the Conservatives making the same mistake? Zero.
Steve,
Maybe blogs such as yours and the comments generated by it are getting thru to the "elites" of the party. Maybe...
There's always hope.
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