Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Somewhat Super Tuesday

Tonight is make or break for Clinton, anything less than wins in Ohio and Texas, her campaign is effectively over. A quick breakdown of the polling averages:


Clinton 50.1%
Obama 43%

The late trends actually show an uptick for Clinton, a couple offering give her a double digit lead.


Clinton 47.4%
Obama 45.7%

A deadheat, but again some late movement for Clinton, a couple polls give her the edge, outside of the margin of error. Texas has a very strange system, with a primary and a caucus, so we could have a situation where Clinton manages to win the popular vote, but Obama actually wins more delegates. Should be interesting, to say the least.

In the other two contests, Clinton leads in Rhode Island, Obama up big in Vermont.

Some argue that Clinton needs massive wins, if she is too close the delegate gap. While that is true, two wins in these crucial states, no matter the gap, will provide Clinton with enough momentum to stay in the race. Should Obama win either contest, then there will be growing pressure on Clinton to dropout.

No comments: