The Nanos Research survey, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggests the Liberals have moved into a virtual tie with the governing Tories.
Liberal support stood at 34 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives and up eight points from the Liberals' dismal showing in the Oct. 14 election under the leadership of Stephane Dion.
The results in Quebec, are particularly relevant:
The poll suggests the Liberal resurgence was particularly pronounced in Quebec, where the party vaulted into the lead with 39 per cent support to 29 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois, 17 per cent for the Tories and 14 per cent for the NDP.
Those are amazing numbers in Quebec, and even if slightly skewed, it's still impressive stuff.
Nanos also asked some leadership questions, with tend to mirror the Ipsos results, Ignatieff well up over his predecessor, but Harper maintains a lead. As I've stated earlier, there is no historical precedent for an opposition leader besting a sitting PM, so these numbers are quite encouraging, you just want to be in the neighborhood:
A voter honeymoon with Ignatieff, who was hastily installed as leader last month, appeared to be the driving force behind the Liberal bounce.
Thirty-four per cent of respondents said they had a more favourable impression of the party since the change in leadership.
Moreover, 23 per cent said Ignatieff would make the best prime minister - double the score previously won by Dion, although still 12 points behind Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Nanos hasn't posted the full results yet, but his last poll in November had it 32% Cons, 30% Libs, NDP 20%. That means the Conservatives have stablilized, and the Liberal gain is mostly because of Quebec, up a full 13% in the province since the last offering. It would appear, the "bounce" is entirely a Quebec calculation, Liberal support really the same in the rest of the country. Given that I see Quebec as our best chance to regain power, and part of the attraction to Ignatieff was his potential appeal in the province, I'm good with that development :)
I may have erred, in assuming that all of the bounce was in Quebec, it appears that the Liberals are also up in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, but this is offset by Conservative gains in the "west":
According to the survey, Liberals expanded their lead in Atlantic Canada (44 per cent to the Tories' 28) and regained a narrow lead in Ontario (39 per cent to the Tories' 35 and the NDP's 16).
The Conservatives continued to dominate western Canada, with 44 per cent to the Liberals' 24 per cent and the NDP's 23 per cent.
Nanos last had a 36-36% tie in Ontario, NDP at 19%, so not much movement, although the small gain seems to come at the expense of the NDP. A big difference in Atlantic Canada (high margin of error), what was a 3% lead is now 16%. In the "west", an 11% Conservative lead is now 20%. Taking all the regionals in totality, this poll gives the Liberals a minority.