One common thread in both polls, the Conservatives are on the decline, but the Liberals have yet to full capitalize. Angus Reid:
Con. 34%, Lib. 28%, NDP
19%, BQ 9%, Grn. 8%.
Conservative suppport eroding in Ontario, a good result for the NDP. Liberal support static, although there are some encouraging signs on the leadership front.
The newest numbers show 31 per cent for the Conservatives, 30 per cent for the Liberals and 18 per cent for the NDP.
A deadheat, and a massive change from the majority heights the Conservatives scored in October.
To be fair, I tend to put slightly more stock in Angus Reid, so I'm still inclined to give the Conservatives a shrinking lead(although they see declining support "across the country"), but clearly in trouble on a host of fronts.
Angus Reid also gives some more prorogation feedback, which is objectively DISASTEROUS for the government. More Canadians are following the issue closely, another worrying sign for the Conservatives. Within that, Harper's numbers drop considerably, Ignatieff actually coming off the mat.
By over 3 to 1, Canadians now disagree with Harper's decision, the strongly disagree up another 8% from last week. 61% disagree, a pitful 19% agree, of those 44% strongly disagree, including a whopping 50% in Ontario.
The prorogue rejection is starting to hurt Harper's popularity:
In the aftermath of prorogation, a majority of Canadians (52%) believe Stephen Harper is secretive, 48 per cent deem him arrogant, 41 per cent say he is intelligent, 37 per cent believe he is out of touch, 34 per cent feel he is uncaring, and 34 per cent find him boring.
Since October, Harper's score has increased on several negative categories, including secretive (+6), arrogant (+4), dishonest (+5), and inefficient (+3).
Harper now has the biggest negative momentum score, a title Ignatieff had previously held for months. On that score, Ignatieff sees an uptick:
Since October, Ignatieff has shed several points on some of the negative character traits, including arrogant (-6), secretive (-6), out of touch (-5) and dishonest (-5).
The above suggests Ignatieff is in slightly better position to make the case against the government.
Looking at all the data, from these polls, a few things are clear:
-The Conservatives have completely lost the prorogue public relations battle.
-Prorogue has the potential to be a "game changer".
-The Liberals are not fully capitalizing on this issue, because of latent hesitation in their brand and leadership.
-Most pundits don't know shit about anything. Seriously. Esoteric circlejerk, for the most part.