Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Raining Polls!

One from Strategic Counsel shows a deadheat. Angus Reid has two polls, one shows a narrowing gap, the other very worrying trendlines for Harper, opinion hardening against his prorogue decsion. Phew(read the links, it's to much to digest in one post).

One common thread in both polls, the Conservatives are on the decline, but the Liberals have yet to full capitalize. Angus Reid:
Con. 34%, Lib. 28%, NDP
19%, BQ 9%, Grn. 8%.

Conservative suppport eroding in Ontario, a good result for the NDP. Liberal support static, although there are some encouraging signs on the leadership front.

Strategic Counsel:
The newest numbers show 31 per cent for the Conservatives, 30 per cent for the Liberals and 18 per cent for the NDP.

A deadheat, and a massive change from the majority heights the Conservatives scored in October.

To be fair, I tend to put slightly more stock in Angus Reid, so I'm still inclined to give the Conservatives a shrinking lead(although they see declining support "across the country"), but clearly in trouble on a host of fronts.

Angus Reid also gives some more prorogation feedback, which is objectively DISASTEROUS for the government. More Canadians are following the issue closely, another worrying sign for the Conservatives. Within that, Harper's numbers drop considerably, Ignatieff actually coming off the mat.

By over 3 to 1, Canadians now disagree with Harper's decision, the strongly disagree up another 8% from last week. 61% disagree, a pitful 19% agree, of those 44% strongly disagree, including a whopping 50% in Ontario.

The prorogue rejection is starting to hurt Harper's popularity:

In the aftermath of prorogation, a majority of Canadians (52%) believe Stephen Harper is secretive, 48 per cent deem him arrogant, 41 per cent say he is intelligent, 37 per cent believe he is out of touch, 34 per cent feel he is uncaring, and 34 per cent find him boring.

Since October, Harper's score has increased on several negative categories, including secretive (+6), arrogant (+4), dishonest (+5), and inefficient (+3).

Harper now has the biggest negative momentum score, a title Ignatieff had previously held for months. On that score, Ignatieff sees an uptick:
Since October, Ignatieff has shed several points on some of the negative character traits, including arrogant (-6), secretive (-6), out of touch (-5) and dishonest (-5).

The above suggests Ignatieff is in slightly better position to make the case against the government.

Looking at all the data, from these polls, a few things are clear:

-The Conservatives have completely lost the prorogue public relations battle.

-Prorogue has the potential to be a "game changer".

-The Liberals are not fully capitalizing on this issue, because of latent hesitation in their brand and leadership.

-Most pundits don't know shit about anything. Seriously. Esoteric circlejerk, for the most part.

21 comments:

penlan said...

We need policy. To take advantage of the change policy is key. People need to know what the laternative is to Harper.

Too bad the Haiti tragedy is all the news right now - understandably. But it gives Dear Leader a chance to look good. Hate to be so cynical during such a terrible event.

marie said...

Well the polls are showing that Harpers mask has come off and people in general have started to see the bullish control freak he has become. I wonder what kind of message his parrots will come out with very soon.

Oh Wee, interesting days ahead for politics and excuses by the Reform Con clan.

Liberal Justice said...

Ignatieff is leading us to victory! Hip-hip-hooray. Now all the naysayers need to fall in line and be more loyal, maybe then we could get a majority.

Greg said...

Keep watching the "arrogant" number. It is almost in the terminal range.

marie said...

Has anybody noticed that the Reforms Con posters are MI. They have no legs to stand on and too darn embarrassed to quote the polls at this time. So much for them and the papers making fun of the FB crowds and numbers growing every day.

Actually I kind of miss them now.

Tof KW said...

Actually I kind of miss them now.

marie, why do you hate our troops? You lefties disgust me.

...there, that should help for a bit

Chrystal Ocean said...

All within the margin of error, Steve. That said, NDP/Greens are up while Cons/Libs are down.

Muskoka Liblog said...

You libtards are all criminals and, uh... you all like to steal money.

There. I hope that makes you feel better. :)

Steve V said...

Chrystal

Umm, not really.

Big Winnie said...

Muskoka Liblog: LMAO!!

Seriously, I agree with Penlan that the Liberals need to come out with policy to differentiate us from the CONs.

Only then will we see an increase in the poll numbers.

Steve V said...

I actually think the Con numbers would be worse, if we had any draw potential whatsoever. As far as I'm concerned, this is the Liberals "moment". Timidity, and/or misreading the polls, would be a massive mistake.

Dylan said...

A fine analysis Steve, however, I can help but feel hesitant to be overjoyed with these numbers. Have we not seen this movie before? The Cons act like jackasses and Liberal numbers jump slightly.

I'm not going to get excited about the Strategic Counsel numbers and will remain cautiously optimistic about the AR trend. An election campaign with both the LPC and CPC at 31% is the best I think Iggy will get.

The Liberals keeping the pressure on the government is only one step on the road to 24 Sussex - they'll need to be attentive to the pulse of Canadians and not take this social movement for granted. The last thing this country needs is to equate Ignatieff's pressure on Harper to that of Harper's own dictatorial style.

Tomm said...

Hi Steve,

The numbers look grim for my man Harper. As the media swells to meet January 25th, and then ebbs as it leaves. As Harper makes his partisan Senate appointments, and then the media sweel will again occur as prorogation ends. The Conservatives will have so little wind in their sails they will have drifted into shark infested waters, and paddling with their hands.

That is when Michael Ignatieff will rise up out of the pumpkin patch and call for the defeat of the Throne Speech. He will ask Canadian's to throw off the shackles and rid themselves of this capricious idealogue.

Canadian's will feel a swell of pride like they haven't felt for many years and will unite on this singular quest.

As they say, new government's don't win power, old government's lose it.

Or maybe something else will happen. But dream your dreams. Enjoy these next two months. Lord knows you deserve this moment.

rob said...

In the aftermath of prorogation, a majority of Canadians (52%) believe Stephen Harper is secretive, 48 per cent deem him arrogant, 41 per cent say he is intelligent, 37 per cent believe he is out of touch, 34 per cent feel he is uncaring, and 34 per cent find him boring.

This is sort of a potentially misleading statement. When I read "41% say he is intelligent" my first thought is surprise that 59% would not agree with the statement "Stephen Harper is intelligent". That sort of surprised me. In fact though, the question just asks people to say the top 6 characteristics that describe Harper for them. So, if I don't like him, I might start listing off all of the negative traits that I believe he has. However, that doesn't mean that I wouldn't agree that he is intelligent.

Fittingly, my word verification word is "fishie".

marie said...

Tof Kw. Where on earth in my post did you read that I hate our troops. If that's what you interpret this, I think you had better quit visiting the blogs.I won't even try to defend myself with that stupid remark you made.No wonder I dislike Harper so much and yes, if there is anybody I hate it would be your cult leader that you seem to adore and not the troops who your PM has put in danger all by himself. I hate what he is doing to ordinary Canadians and your a good example of who I mean.Oh and BTW, you righteous rights disgust me too so go take a hike and your meds while your at it. Sounds like you need them right now. Does that make us even now. Tit for Tat parrot.
Oops I forgot, don't feed the trolls. There that should help for a while.

Gayle said...

marie - I think he was joking.

Tof KW said...

marie, I think you mistake me for trolls like Canadiansense. Please look up sarcasm in the dictionary :)

rockfish said...

I'd like to see Ignatieff step up and say something like this, "as all political parties in a minority, we're alway wanting your ideas, your energy, yes, even your money. But not now. If you've got $20 to donate today or next week, spare it for one of the causes which is needed in Haiti right now. We'll be here to ask again; give it to someone who really needs it. I just want to get back to work."

On the Harperholiday front, I feel what is needed to extend the heat is some humour -- that's what really turned a dumb Stockwell Day moment into a landslide (the change-a-name issue, and the barney-the-dinosaur stunt)... You'd be surprised how you can mark someone by mocking them. And Harper's due for a mocking...

Steve V said...

EKOS out this morning, Con lead gone.

Steve V said...

Marie, he was joking :)

Tof KW said...

Reflecting back on what I thought could only be taken as a joke, I have come to realise that if one simply posts the most asinine, simplistic, baseless, accusatory comment one could dream up, you become a convincing Reformatroll. Sad, really.