Thursday, January 21, 2010

Liberals Get Some Traction

A bit late to the digestion game, but a pretty intriuging result from EKOS. For the first time since September, the Liberals are above the 30% threshold. For the first time since last spring, we see a seat breakdown that would theoretically put the Liberals in power. For the first time in months, we see the Liberals actually gaining some traction with voters.

This is the second week in a row that EKOS has showed a noticeable Liberal uptick, there is a healthy gradient to their curve. The Conservatives are actually up slightly, which reinforces the belief that they've reached "bottom". Despite this levelling out, breaking a 12 week downward trend, the Liberals still narrow the gap, with increased support:
Conservatives: 31.5 (+0.6)
Liberals: 30.9 (+1.6)
NDP: 14.9 (-0.4)
Green: 11.5 (-0.4)
Other: 2.1 (-0.2)

I posited a few days ago, that we look to be entering the "second look" phase for Ignatieff. They tear you down to the point of oblivion, but inevitably the piling on gets old, people search for new storylines- everyone loves an underdog, especially when it's their partial creation! It's fair to say, that Ignatieff's relatively favorable press coverage have helped the Liberal fortunes. In order to fully capitalize on Conservative missteps, the Liberals must look the credible alternative. If not an overwhelming sense, at least Ignatieff's tour and high profile have allowed a few more people to drift into the Liberal column.

In Ontario, the gap between the two principals. has actually narrowed about 3%, Liberals holding a small 4% lead. What is noteworthy, and this speaks to my "putting items in the window" perspective, the Greens are now tied with the NDP for third at 13.3% (that Strategic Counsel 22% for the NDP looks every bit the outlier that tends to plague that outlet from time to time). That translates to almost 27% of the electorate parked with the lesser parties, a massive total that demands attention. If recent polling is still accurate, the Liberals enjoy much "second choice" support amongst this subset, so exploiting that will be key, if the Liberals hope to get into serious governance terrority.

Solid results for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. I note that EKOS now has the Liberals tied with the Conservatives for the "male" vote.

This is a good news result for the Liberals, no question. It provides enough momentum to continue the new narratives, it provides further opportunity for Ignatieff to truly redefine himself, and in so doing rebrand the party. There is still a "drag" that exists, as evidenced by a consistent 3% uptick year to year for the Greens.

Advice aside, it is entirely pleasing to see the once daunting Conservative majority now reduced to an equation that relates to sitting in opposition.


Omar said...

I wonder when the Conservative Party of Canada is going to realize they cannot win a majority government with Harper as leader. Personally, I hope they stay in the dark on that score.

"Solid results for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.."

You're welcome.

Steve V said...

A few weeks ago, we had to endure Cons telling us how Harper has really worn well, Canadians are starting to identify and respond to his style and character. At that time, I said don't confuse a lack of faith in the alternative with an endorsement of the incumbent. Canadians have never had any real, substantive connection with stone cold Harper. If Conbots want to dilude themselves into thinking we all love him like they do, I say have it, because I've always seen him as an asset for the Liberals.

Jesse said...

1) The Green bump must be because of the prorogation. Copenhagen was too long ago, and the Greens tend to benefit from the sort of general "no one stands for me" stuff that's fuelling the Facebook group.

2) I think some of the Liberal climb is because of Haiti. "The government's doing OK on this one" isn't going to move people, but "gee, things happen outside our country that we care about" may.

3) I'm optimistic that NDP and Green voters are going to be movable by the platform if it has effective progressive (or better than Harper), and environmental, ideas.

Steve V said...

The Green vote has been strong for months, like I said, consistently about 2-3% higher than last year. It's part protest vote, people have no faith in the main parties, looking around, particularly young voters.

I think they're "movable", if we're armed accordingly.

RuralSandi said...

Harper must be worried - he told a blatant lie (again) in Nova Scotia.

It was about the sentencing of one of the 18 terrorists in Toronto who was allowed the time already in jail off his sentence.

Harper said that it was the Liberal senate's fault - LIAR!

Paul Russo, on Evan Solomon's show said the truth was that it is "Harper and his cabinet" that are holding up that legislation. Parliament took just over ONE MONTH to pass it and the senate took just over ONE MONTH to pass it.

There was also a segment about the cost of prorogation and that there were some layoffs and that some would lose pensions, etc.

Steve V said...

Hall made Harper look like a complete ass, when he reviewed the FACTS.

Gayle said...

Not to mention the fact that law could not apply to this case anyway, because you cannot back date punishment.

Harper should really read the Charter one of these days.

Tof KW said...

Ah Gayle, you know the facts never stop Harper from taking a cheap political shot at his opponents.

However, Kady's pointing out Harper's BS over at the CBC Politics site. It's so nice to see real journalists at work, you know actually researching stuff instead of just typing CPC talking points down and hitting send.

Oh, remember the other night about how I was predicting Harper will start up Senate Reform as a way to counter any democratic reform policies the Libs might roll out. His little diatribe today is the shape of things to come.

Jerry Prager said...

I suspect there will be a movement to the Liberals, although Iggy did himself no favours over the Prorogue issue at the Facebook site, only the Lib defenders in the group thought he did well. He's the lesser of two evils.

And the Group isn't going to go away, it will keep growing, having just passed 209,000, it is a voters movement, full of people from all parties who are very tired of party politics, party whips, party representatives and everything parties do to make power work for the vested interests who run the parties.

Unfortunately for the Liberals, they really have no democratic reform impulses. Iggy is no Trudeau, he needs the party too badly, and the money men who run the Liberal Party will never relinquish control of the party, without a palace coup. Iggy is not the man for that job.

This time, if there is a Lib government, as soon as the party tries exercising power for their own benefit, the voters will be there, in larger numbers than ever before.

And don't make the mistake of thinking the Facebook Group is just a bunch of young people; the age range is solid from 15 to 93. (maybe not that many 80 year olds.)

The political landscape of Canada has changed.

Steve V said...

That FB group is a terrific "sounding board", in a sense, representative of a more general mood. I thought the reaction to his nothing answers surrounding reform was quite telling. Here's the rub, it denotes that the Libs don't take it seriously either. I wasn't impressed at all, completely missed the opportunity. I applaud the interaction attempt, but there was no JAM.