Thursday, January 28, 2010

Your Morning Smile

Let's not get carried away, but the last time the Liberals had any lead in a poll, even statistically insignificant, was early last summer. The new EKOS shows more movement in favor of the Liberals:
Liberals 31.6%(30.9%)
Conservatives 31.1%(31.5%)
NDP 14.6%(14.9%)
Greens 11%(11.5%)

Last week's EKOS started to show the Liberals finally getting some traction. The trend continues this week. In Ontario, the Liberals are effectively back, hovering around 39%, while the Conservatves are at 32%, NDP 15%, Greens 12%. I still maintain a very volatile electorate, but the momentum has swung heavily to the Liberals over the past month. EKOS also gives the Liberals a relatively strong result in Quebec and British Columbia. These three provinces are critical for Liberal fortunes, so good signs all around.

Of note, EKOS releases their polling for each individual day. One must remain cautious inferring anything, but the Liberal vote rose each successive day, culminating with a 33.4% Tuesday. As I said yesterday, the last two weeks have been quite good for the Liberals, better than any recent time I can remember. This week in particular, solid policy proposals, a general air of government in waiting, with this terrific strategy of showing up for work. The improving fortunes might speak to a true "second look" at Ignatieff and the Liberal brand.

In terms of right direction/wrong direction, the Conservatives are in the RED, which is another worrying sign from their perspective. British Columbia and Quebec are decidedly pessimistic, followed by Ontario, again highlighting the potential problem for the Conservatives.

I honestly think the Liberals are starting to benefit and look like a credible alternative. With a renewed focus on policy development, culminating with the Montreal Conference, there is plenty of opportunity. What might be more important, the new negative media narrative towards Harper finds more fuel, while Ignatieff enjoys this supposed "new bounce in his step". In other words, the channel has been changed, from one of constant bombardment directed towards the Liberals to a redigestion of all that's wrong with Harper.

25 comments:

penlan said...

Steve,
This is good news. If the Libs continue to present alternatives, policies, to the public during this prorogation I think the Lib stats will continue to rise in the polls. Now is NOT the time for them to sit back & relax. So far so good.

Scott Tribe said...

Those polls really hurt, eh Bubba?

Malcolm Barry said...

When the Liberals show unity and positive leadership the polls indicate that. Ignatieff is a good Leader and there are always bumps along the way but he is an intelligent hreat thinker.

Steve V said...

Sorry Scott.

Bubba can whine in the other post if he chooses.

bubba said...

the polls dont bother me. If each M.P. that brings the most charater and best Ideas to the Table gets their spot in the house we will be fine. In P.A. I know who that is and I expect each riding will have to make that choice.If we are worried about democracy elections have a good way of cleaning that laundry.

Gene Rayburn said...

by the most character do you mean buys you lunch bubba?

bubba said...

He's never bought me lunch. and the liberals struggle to get quality candidates in Sask.Can you dispute that? When they can entice community leaders and business leaders to let their names stand. Not be appointed by an appointed leader. Then attack the sitting government on lack of democracy you might get my ear.

Tof KW said...

and the liberals struggle to get quality candidates in Sask.

David Orchard ring a bell? An unrepentant old-school Tory (right down to opposing free trade deals of any kind) in the best traditions of Sir John A himself. Shows the Liberals really are a big tent party.

The good citizens of Desneth√©—Missinippi—Churchill River should get this man in Parliament at the soonest opportunity.

bubba said...

This is a joke right T of KW David orchard does not speak for the grass roots in sask. If you think he does then you are so far out of touch with us you should not adress any sask. issues again for fear of embarrassing yourself and any group you are associated with. You think sask wants free trade ended? Is that a Liberal position? David Orchard has opinions yes but he will have a hard time getting elected in sask. under any party banner.

Gene Rayburn said...

shorter bubba: David Orchard didnt buy me lunch & doesn't take three month vacations. Not grassroots!

Tof KW said...

David Orchard is against free trade deals, opposes the gun registry (actually gun control of any kind), and is a social conservative (strongly believes in the traditional definition of marriage). Does any of this sound 'Liberal' to you?

Free trade deals and closer economic integration into the US are traditional Liberal platforms dating back to the birth of this nation. The Grits do support these things, however nowhere near as enthusiastically as the treasonous and populist CPoC has embraced neoliberal economic policies. Don’t get into a debate with me on what a Tory is, you have no idea of what traditional conservatism means.

bubba said...

Mr. Ignatieff should find David orchard a safe riding in Ontario to run in. As he will never represent a riding from Sask.. There must be a couple of safe ridings in Toronto. On the free trade issue alone Mr. Orchard has put himself in a tough position to win a riding in Sask.It has become so important to economic development here. Would you not agree?

penlan said...

Hmmm...looks like someone named Bubba has hijacked this thread, unfortunately. ;)

Tof KW said...

Bubba represents every reason why I will never vote for Harper or the new CPoC. At least the Grits allow dissention and debate within their party. The faux-conservatives follow US republican ideals like zombies into the economic abyss, while pissing on parliamentary tradition and the monarchy. Enjoy voting for a populist Alberta rump party that will NEVER form a majority Bubba. And your ‘grassroots’ smell more to me like the Astroturf coming out of Stephen Taylor’s arse.

RuralSandi said...

He calls himself Bubba - enough said

Steve V said...

I didn't post the Angus Reid poll, but it does show some evidence of Ignatieff rebounding.

Tof KW said...

Thanks for allowing me to shoot back at some trolls Steve, I'll stay on topic here. I was looking forward to this EKOS poll, and it didn't disappoint, I was assuming it would show Harper sinking further. Good news, but as you wrote the Grits should not rest their laurels yet. However Ignatieff is in a very enviable position now to reintroduce himself to the voters over the next 5 weeks.

I also noticed yesterday on CBC's P&P that all the commentary about Harper's new found policy to improve the health of women and children was met with a great deal of cynicism. While this is a noble goal, they pointed out how Harper has cut funds for CIDA and several NGOs now, and allowed the health of Canada's own women and children to slide over the past 4 years. Good to see the media won't let Harper change the channel so quickly anymore.

bubba said...

At least the Grits allow dissention and debate within their party. is this the debate held at Mr. Ignatief's tough leadership battle. The grass roots of the liberal party are disenfranchised. They may never vote cpoc thats o.k. but dont fool yourself into thinking your party is doing anything to motivate them. People can only be neglected for so long.
I hope the Liberals listen and respond.But as for right now I don't see an alternative to voting cpoc in rural sask.

Gene Rayburn said...

follow the lemmings... bubba... follow them to the CPOC cliff

Steve V said...

I actually see it as a sign of desperation that Harper is suddenly trying to reinvent himself. The credentials aren't theren nor is this champion of foreign compassion. It smacks of opportunism and it's laughable if the PMO thinks people will just accept the frame.

Tof KW said...

He calls himself Bubba - enough said

Makes you wonder why he doesn't just move to a nice trailerpark in Oklahoma, join the local chapter of the GOP, and then find a nice HMO (who will cut him off as soon as he becomes seriously ill because they consider gingivitis to be a pre-existing medical condition) and there he can find happiness with his new neighbours as they watch FOXNews together and 'piss off liberals' until the cows come home.

...it's laughable if the PMO thinks people will just accept the frame

The problem was the media was complicit in Harper's chameleon-like personality changes everytime he ran into trouble. For whatever reason, this time the media are finally casting a critical eye, and actually doing some fact-checking instead of just typing down the PMO's talking points and hitting send.

bubba said...

I dont think the Liberals will take the next step until the "gotcha politics ends" The problem is many time the coyotes eat innocent bystanders and are forced to appologise right steve. The new innitiative Iggy has brought forward have to continue or I think the ceiling will be low 30's. Also until cpoc moves beyond blaming Liberals and to more "big Picture stuff they will only be over 35 when the opposition is screwing up ie. coalition. Now is the time for visions to come forward and be debated. Or we can discuss what they all had for lunch and bob around going nowhere.

bubba said...

If its encouraged I will try to do some personal attacks on people I don't know or I would i be better off to debate and discuss ideas brought forward by the posters? My comments will be on the issue at hand or responses to commentors.I find T of KW quite amusing in his defence of allowing dissention and debate. quite rich. You almost have me convinced to switch lol

Steve V said...

Bubba, you know what's funny? The first person to play gotcha politics, relating to vacations was Stephen Harper ;)

One last point. Enjoy commenting today, because tomorrow you go into the CLICK gang. Who has the time?

Malcolm Barry said...

I suspect the polls will indicate Ignatieff will continue to rise in the polls. I have been suggesting for a couple of years that the reporters listen to Ignatieff when he is asked a question instead of trying to focus on a follow up question before he is finished answering. Today on CBC Ignatieff had a Press conference and on at least three occasions while answering questions he had to interject and say, LET ME FINISH AS YOU ASKED ME A QUESTION. Some of the reporters continue not to listen and are trying to make a name for themselves instead of getting the correct answers.