Last week's EKOS started to show the Liberals finally getting some traction. The trend continues this week. In Ontario, the Liberals are effectively back, hovering around 39%, while the Conservatves are at 32%, NDP 15%, Greens 12%. I still maintain a very volatile electorate, but the momentum has swung heavily to the Liberals over the past month. EKOS also gives the Liberals a relatively strong result in Quebec and British Columbia. These three provinces are critical for Liberal fortunes, so good signs all around.
Of note, EKOS releases their polling for each individual day. One must remain cautious inferring anything, but the Liberal vote rose each successive day, culminating with a 33.4% Tuesday. As I said yesterday, the last two weeks have been quite good for the Liberals, better than any recent time I can remember. This week in particular, solid policy proposals, a general air of government in waiting, with this terrific strategy of showing up for work. The improving fortunes might speak to a true "second look" at Ignatieff and the Liberal brand.
In terms of right direction/wrong direction, the Conservatives are in the RED, which is another worrying sign from their perspective. British Columbia and Quebec are decidedly pessimistic, followed by Ontario, again highlighting the potential problem for the Conservatives.
I honestly think the Liberals are starting to benefit and look like a credible alternative. With a renewed focus on policy development, culminating with the Montreal Conference, there is plenty of opportunity. What might be more important, the new negative media narrative towards Harper finds more fuel, while Ignatieff enjoys this supposed "new bounce in his step". In other words, the channel has been changed, from one of constant bombardment directed towards the Liberals to a redigestion of all that's wrong with Harper.