R.I.P. Piano Man

The latest EKOS, supports yesterday's polls, the Conservative vote in freefall. Graves accurately points to the detainee issue as the beginning of the erosion, with the prorogue question supporting a worrying negative narrative. It's so bad, the Conservatives have entirely squandered their once impressive lead, and are now in trouble in Ontario. Worse still, on the question of country direction, the Conservatives have now managed to post worse numbers than they did during the height of the recession. Well done master strategists!:

National federal vote intention:
30.9% CPC
29.3% LPC
15.3% NDP
11.9% Green
10.2% BQ
2.3% Other

Direction of government:

40% Right Direction
47% Wrong Direction
13% DK/NR

As pointed out elsewhere, Liberals need to temper their enthusiasm. It is worth remembering, that the last time the Conservatives were this low in the polls, the Liberals were in the mid 30's. Now, we see the Liberals around 5% lower, so the question becomes- how can we bring those voters back into the fold? The biggest reason for this disparity, the Liberals no longer enjoy strong support in Quebec. The Ontario numbers are actually quite strong, not much different from one's seen when the Liberals had a decided edge nationally.

This poll doesn't show much advantage for the NDP. Yesterday, SC gave the party an impressive 22% in Ontario, which explained their national uptick. EKOS brings a much different 15.3%, so it's fair to see SC as an outlier at this point, particularly because of past reliability.

The fact that Canadians are relatively optimistic about the economy moving forward, makes the "wrong direction" numbers that much more alarming for the Conservatives. An objectively dreadful score, the Conservatives are paying a huge price for their recent decisions.

Here's why these polls are really important, beyond the obvious. Ottawa is entirely poll driven, it shapes storylines. Now armed with real world evidence of a "stunning turnaround", I now look to see if the Liberals get a reprieve, as the "pile on" cycle is broken. I've seen it happen a million times, here and down south, they tear you apart to the point of oblivion, something changes, and all of sudden a "rebirth" is possible. Columns such as this one "First Signs of a Rebound for Bruised Ignatieff" aren't coincidence. Harper is now the hunted, Ignatieff has some room to take advantage, the narrative is now- what happened to the Conservatives, all the old negative impressions of Harper re-digested.

I had a very strong, intuitive feeling, immediately when I first contemplated this prorogue idea. It is starting to look like "pundit" prophecy ;):

"Mark my words,if true this will be worst political move of Harper's career." Dec 14th