Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Gun Registry Poll

The latest gun registry poll represents a fascinating change in public sentiment, but not necessarily that bad a result from the Conservative perspective.

I've watched these registry polls for some time. Up until the debate reached crescendo, little movement, but once we had vested interests picking side, the pro registry side numbers moved noticeably. This Ipsos Reid poll only confirms the end game opinion.

When you drill down into the numbers, while it's true that we Liberals could benefit, it's also true that the Conservatives don't really suffer, possibly gain. Just as the national polls have shown, the NDP are the ones with the chief problem moving forward. Whether the gun registry remains a key issue during the next campaign remains to be seen, but I would expect the Conservatives to push it- that fact in and of itself supports the notion that the numbers still can work for their side.

If you look at who supports the registry, you find a healthy majority in this poll. However, when you look at who will vote, and who is most passionate, it becomes a bit less cut and dry. Young people don't vote, relative to the other subsets, so when we look at the real key demographics, the Conservatives find some comfort. 47% of people over 55 don't support the registry, a finding that is heightened by expected election turnout. You can't simply look at the overall numbers, because the Conservatives once again benefit from the 3 against 1 scenario, the anti registry vote is theirs, and theirs alone. This simple fact almost makes majority, no majority talk irrelevant, because per usual the Conservative benefit from divided opposition.

A key finding:

Of New Democrats, 14% said it makes them want to vote for a party that advocates killing the registry, while nine% indicate they still want to support a party that supports it.

The Conservative base is largely not in play, but we see that a full 1/3 of NDP support is against the registry. The above highlights why this issue could be problematic. The question then becomes who stands to benefit from this divide. It is fair to say, most of this dissent is rural, and the Conservatives are the main competition. It is for this reason, that when you take these overwhelming support numbers on balance, it isn't necessarily the bad news finding that first blush suggests.

However, it is also true that this poll provides plenty of upside for the Liberals. The Liberals have a large pool of voters who do support their position on the registry. The fact the Liberals took the lead role in advocating for the registry, while the NDP comes off with a confusing stance, could help in a campaign. There are a few Liberal seats that could be affected by this issue, but that is balanced by the overall distribution of support.

This poll strikes me as one that we shouldn't see an "either/or" in terms of advantage. In fact, while I think the numbers are probably best for the Liberals, one can just as easily see some upside for the Conservatives. All that said, there is little question, that these numbers, like recent horserace ones, leave the NDP wanting and vulnerable to some degree.

62 comments:

Prairie Kid said...

I can guarantee you that 90% of the people who were polled have no idea what the gun registry is or does.

Do yourself a favor as I have done. Ask 5 police officers on the street if they think the registry is actually helpful to them? I know what the majority would say.

THEY NEVER USE IT.

RuralSandi said...

Prairie Kid - BS! I've have friends that are cops, one is an OPP officer, the others local - they want the registry to stay

Steve V said...

I think that's funny. People have a pretty good idea what this issue is about. Sheesh, we've been consumed with it. But, but, only little gun boy here really understands. I guarantee YOU need to get MORE.

Gayle said...

What a shock. A conservative who does not support the gun registry makes a bald, unsubstantiated statement and then uses a "scientific" poll of three people to back it up.

ha ha ha

Tof KW said...

PK - good friend of mine is a local cop here, also as true-blue a Conservative as you'll find ...he's strongly pro-LGR. He really wishes the party will drop this as an election issue, he sees it as a killer to winning a majority. I agree. This poll confirms it.

Harper needs to reach out to urban voters, women and Quebec if he has any hope of a majority government; all groups that overwhelmingly support the LGR. Pushing this issue will only make him stronger with those ridings that are already voting Conservative, you maybe can pick off 4-5 more rural ridings. However you stand to loose 10-15 in Quebec and Ontario if this is pushed in an election (instead of focusing on the economy, health care, environment, crime & security, etc).

Now I disagree somewhat with Steve in that this is more bad news for the CPofC if they push the registry, in that given these poll numbers it would hurt Harper's drive to win a majority if he keeps pressing the issue ...so I really hope he does.

Steve V said...

KW

Not if they push registry in a targeted fashion. Not a national thrust, but localized, could work for the Cons. At least, I don't necessarily believe this is bad news, when you look at the demographics and who really cares about this issue. Is this a hot button urban issue in the next election? I don't think so, but it could be in rural ridings.

Ted Betts said...

I really can't see any good news for Conservatives in this poll.

A strong majority of Canadians favour the long-gun registry. A majority in every single province, except Alberta, support the long-gun registry. That completely blows away one of their primary arguments: that this is urban Toronto elites dictating policy to the rest of the country. Support is national and not limited to urban areas. Worse for them, it flips that argument around: clearly it is the Conservatives minority that is trying to dictate policy to the rest of the country. In fact, to claim it is just Toronto elites highlights how extremely arrogant and disconnected they are.

What the poll also shows is that the anti-registry folk are most concentrated where the Conservatives are already winning by huge margins. So if the gun registry makes those ridings even more Conservatives, who cares?

This may put a few ridings into play, but (a) I think this poll may actually be better on this front than prior polls (i.e. I seem to recall polls that showed even more NDP supporters would shift their vote than this indicates), (b) the poll plays the "split the percentage game" - a percentage of a percentage may seem like it is something but when you translate 14% (would leave for the Cons because of this) vs 9% (won't) of the 16% of Canadians who support the NDP, you are really not talking about a lot of real votes moving and this is now, right after the heated debate, and (c) you have to consider the vulnerability of Cons in urban ridings, especially in Quebec and Ontario, which I think will make up for any minor gains in a few disparate rural ridings.

And because of the vulnerability of (c) and only a modest possible uptik in (b) and the size of the support now across the country, I suspect we won't be hearing much about the gun registry in the election.

I suppose it will help in fundraising. But that's about it.

Steve V said...

"I really can't see any good news for Conservatives in this poll."

Ted, if you drill down, especially WHO votes, I can't see how people dismiss entirely. I'm not suggesting great news, on balance I'd pick the Liberals on this issue. That said, the Cons don't need anywhere near majorities to win the day. This is the same scenario that keeps them in power, so we need to forget the shiny "majority says" headlines, because it's really irrelevant electorally. On this issue, those that favour are no where near as motivated, passionate, as thouse that want to kill. People should never forget that, not many will pull the lever because you favour, but I guarantee more will that want it killed.

ridenrain said...

The only poll I'm going to trust is an election. Since this is such good news for the coalition, they should bring the government down as soon as possible.

Ted Betts said...

Oh, I don't forget that at all. I just don't see this poll showing anything that different than in 2006 and 2008, at least as far as being in favour for the Cons. As I said, I even seem to recall numbers from other polls that used to show a greater number of NDP voters would leave the NDP for the Cons over the gun registry.

I suspect that those who decide who they will vote for because of the gun registry is extremely small and not enough to move any seats. And the Cons will only move any votes if they make it a campaign issue and keep that anger "hot"; however, to do so requires them to campaign on the issue and that is where they run the risk of losing far more in much more vulnerable ridings than they could possibly gain.

If only 14% of 16% are saying right now they would move in a poll with no election context (i.e. discussion of other core NDP policies vs Cons) and right after the gun registry vote, right after a massive targetted advertising campaign, then I think the Conservatives have got to be disappointed with that number. Even maybe concerned. I would think that that is pretty close to the peak and the number of people who will vote FOR Stephen Harper on this issue (especially knowing it is likely to stay anyway) will only continue to erode.

Tof KW said...

Steve, I understand your points and I agree they have some merit. If the CPC could target that scrap the registry message in just a few swing rural ridings (well there are only a handful) they can possible win them over.

However that assumes the rest of the county won't notice that strategy. I get the feeling after this LGR vote the media and the Grits will not let that happen in the next election campaign. And if this becomes a national debate again during an election it causes more harm for Harper than good, if for no other reason than it would lower the NDP's numbers.

Paul said...

I find it sad when so many people support something they no nothing about. "Thousands of times per day" for the last ten years and not one example of HOW it works. Lots of misinformation flying around from both sides (but mostly from the pro registry folks).
I have asked many cops what they think of the registry. Some support it, most don't use it.
Funny thing about the cops who support it, they always associate the registry with address checks....FAIL.
There are no addresses in the registry....only serial numbers and id information about said gun.
They are actually using the licensing part of our gun laws and don't know the difference.

"I think that's funny. People have a pretty good idea what this issue is about. Sheesh, we've been consumed with it."

Really? Here is a question then.
Why did the old FAC program (before bill C-68) disallow more people from legally owning firearms then our present system?

Anyone?

Ted Betts said...

I find it sad when so many people oppose something they no nothing about and arrogantly think only they know how something works and how the majority of Canadians, including cops, are just idiots or liars or both.

Tof KW said...

"I find it sad when so many people support something they no nothing about. "Thousands of times per day" for the last ten years and not one example of HOW it works."

Oh Paul, you are hopelessly lost here. Those ways the LGR works have been detailed by the RCMP and various police agencies several times now, you're just ignoring their reports.

Hell, les Surete du Quebec just caught David Abitbol using the long gun registry. The kid threatened to shoot up his school on Facebook, the police found his name in the LGR and found he has registered weapons, the SWAT team came calling at 3AM and voila, an arrest.

Now was this kid just guilty of a harmless prank and never meant to go through with this threat? Who knows. Were lives saved with the LGR? Again who knows. But this instance does reinforce for me that the LGR is a useful tool for police to protect the public.

Now Paul, I know you know better than the police ...but even so I can see why the Liberals side with the cops on the LGR debate and not with your expert advice.

Paul said...

"Hell, les Surete du Quebec just caught David Abitbol using the long gun registry. The kid threatened to shoot up his school on Facebook, the police found his name in the LGR and found he has registered weapons, the SWAT team came calling at 3AM and voila, an arrest."

They didn't need the registry to do this. They could and did do this using the licensing part of our gun laws. The registry only gives information about a particular firearm. Those firearms don't even have to be stored at his address, that is why there is no address to guns in the registry.
Even wonder why the registry didn't stop Dawson C. from happening.
Expect more stories like this as police try and justify the use of the registry but fail to tell the public that it is the licensing part that they are actually using.
After all that looks like he's up on child porn charges and not gun charges....

Sheep, wolves, and sheep dogs my friend.

Steve V said...

"Expect more stories like this as police try and justify the use of the registry"

LOL. Did it every dawn on you narrow minded zealots WHY the police might be trying to JUSTIFY??? Like, in all seriousness, they aren't politicians, closet Liberals, their just cops, so WHY oh WHY would they want to keep it? I'll say this, the numbers turned because people with the most BASIC of common sense know that if the cops are fighting this hard to keep it, there must be a reason.

Tof KW said...

Right Paul, the police could have used his FAC to know he could 'potentially' own guns. But with the LGR they knew the makes and serial numbers. As for not knowing the address via the LGR, I'm pretty sure the police figured out this young man's address well before any LGR inquiry was ever made.

I still don't see how you think this is helping your case.

Paul said...

Steve V.

"Like, in all seriousness, they aren't politicians, closet Liberals, their just cops, so WHY oh WHY would they want to keep it?"

The main one being money...(CAPC)
The second one being control for the sake of control...
The third is ignorance (you actually think police are experts on our gun laws) Most lawyers have not even figured them out yet. Is why you don't see "gun registry" infractions making there way through the court of law.

I am all for firearm control....that works. The registry does nothing that the police can't do from Licensing. I would rather take the money and strengthen the licensing part (because that is where the real power of our gun laws are)
and put more cops on the street to to help with all forms of crime.

Our handgun registry has been in place since 1934, and what has that done for public safety? Police admit the requirement for handgun registration has done nothing to prevent criminal misuse.
So what is the point with long guns?


@TOF KW....do you have any idea what you are talking about?

Steve V said...

Weak.

Tof KW said...

"@TOF KW....do you have any idea what you are talking about?"

With your sparkling 3 reason reply for why the police are fighting to keep the LGR, I could ask you the same question.

Money, power and they don't know the law? Are you sure you want to stick with those?

Paul said...

Steve V said...
Weak.


Ever take a peek at your side...
"Police say its good so lets keep it.."
With no evidence to back that statement.
Public safety should not be about Liberal or Conserative, it should be about what is in the best interest of the public and how do we make laws that make Canada's citizens safer from the misuse of everything. Granted the Liberals screwed up in a big way bring this set of gun laws into being (mostly by listening to the wrong people) and even though Harper is more right on this issue (usefulness of the registry) his presentation on the topic to the public has be equally bone headed. The report by the CAPC was also very misleading in two key ways. The cost to run per year and the usefullness of the registry.

The money that has been spent, and money that will be spent on the gun registry is a complete waste of tax dollars and does nothing for public safety except trick people into thinking they are somehow safer.
But I guess that what politics are all about....

Paul said...

"With your sparkling 3 reason reply for why the police are fighting to keep the LGR, I could ask you the same question.

Money, power and they don't know the law?"

Thanks for answering my last question.....

Steve V said...

"Ever take a peek at your side..."

I don't have a "side" actually. Unlike you, I let the experts dictate how I lean. Cops want it, so I say keep it. Prior to that, I wanted to kill it.

ridenrain said...

My favorite example of registry support is the fact that they used it to enter and inspect the Pickton pig farm. Yeah team.

This is after almost 50 women were killed though… After a naked, stabbed woman ran from him and his property though.. After years and years of the Hells Angels using that property for open parties with illegal booze & drugs..

Paul is right. The registry does nothing that the FAC/PAL system didn’t already do and most non-gun owners have no idea.

Steve V said...

Wow, what a completely useless point hidenbrain. Thanks for being consistently underwhelming. It's a gift you have...

Paul said...

"I let the experts dictate how I lean. Cops want it, so I say keep it. Prior to that, I wanted to kill it."

Since when are cops experts on gun law?

Why do some cops say its good and others say it is not?

Here is a neat quote from one of your experts "We have an ongoing gun crisis including firearms-related homicides lately in Toronto, and a law registering firearms has neither deterred these crimes nor helped us solve any of them."

Former Ontario Provincial Police Commissioner Julian Fantino

Since knives kill just as many people every year why aren't the "experts" screaming for a knife registry?

Why did the "experts" come out and say that the taser is perfectly safe, when it was not?

I think you and I have different definitions of the term "expert".

Steve V said...

What are your experts, hunters? You haven't explained why chiefs unanimously supported keeping the registry?

Look, I'm no big fan of the registry. That said, if the cops want it, the cost is manageable now, so let them have it. You zealots have tunnel vision. Is it really such a big deal to register your gun, is it really the biggest issue going in your life? Sheesh, so tiring you ideologues... I've lived and live in rural environments, on boths sides of the country. The anti crowd is just irrational, way, way to emotional- always have been, always will. Actually, that's my point here with this poll, your side is more motivated, the pro side less invested.

Ted Betts said...

"Is why you don't see "gun registry" infractions making there way through the court of law."

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the anti-registry brain trust, straight from the folks who claim 66% of Canadians are ignorant and cops are dumb and lie for a living and want to control us.

Gun registry infractions are not being prosecuted because cops and lawyers are too dumb.

Even our lying government doesn't try to serve that one up.

Instead, our lying government grants amnesty for all gun registry infractions. Hmmm. Wonder if that has anything to do with no infractions making there way through the court of law.

But it could explain a lot. Cops and lawyers being too dumb would explain why there are so very very few infractions under the census laws making there way through the court of law and why there are so very very few jaywalking infractions making there way through the court of law.

Thank god for the Conservatives, our intellectual superiors, who will make all the decisions for us. When so many people - the majority of Canadians in fact - are too stupid to make up their own minds, we'll always have the Conservatives there to tell us right from wrong.

And if they want our opinion, they'll give it to us, right!?!

(And to think some of them don't understand why only about 20% of Canadians support them.)

Tof KW said...

Not all that long ago really (like our host here) I was of the opinion that the LGR was next to useless and needed to go. If anyone cares to go back to my comments from even just a year ago I was still starting posts with "I don't care if it's scrapped" along with lines like "the Liberals only have themselves to blame for its demise".

Likewise for me, it was after listening to how the police, courts and probation boards use the LGR that I began to see the merits of the registry. That and I'll give Stephen Harper credit for handing over the registry to the RCMP, that move made the annual costs of the registry quite acceptable.

So if the police say they need it, and the costs are nothing like they were under the Liberal-era; I now feel it should stay.

Now there still need to be some serious changes made to the LGR, most significantly the decriminalization of non-registery of a long-gun (it should be a simple fine, nothing more) but the Liberals say they are willing to make that change.

I now am looking for compromise from all sides on this issue from all sides. So far I am only seeing that from the Libs and the Dippers. Harper, as usual, can't act like a PM by attempting to heal the divisions this is causing.

By the way Paul, I am asking how you consider yourself to have a greater knowledge of our gun laws that the various police agencies do? For that matter you say the lawyers are not experts either. Who the heck is the expert in your mind, the NRA?

ottlib said...

After the vote on the registry I stated in my blog that the Conservatives want to change the channel. They know that this issue is not a winner for them with the voters they need to win government let alone their much coveted majority. I am certain this poll would only reinforce that idea for them.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives there is a small but vocal group within the Party that may not want to change the channel and they may demand they make the elimination of the registry an election issue.

If that group is big enough and vocal enough it slould be interestion to see how Stephen Harper handles them.

Ted Betts said...

TofKW:

You touched on one point that I think would seal the deal for the Liberals and even the NDP on this should the Cons make it an election issue.

We know cops support this. We know 66% of Canadians from every region support this. We know the Conservatives themselves are pretty evenly split on this.

If Harper makes eliminating it an election issue, we pull the compromise card out. We are not being ideological and not trying to slam our views on everyone, but looking for ways to work through people's issues and concerns.

Reasonableness and a willingness to compromise or consider compromise on contentious issues plays extremely well with Canadians. It also fits extremely well into developing perceptions of both Ignatieff and the "big tent" willing to listen to Canadians vs Harper and the narrow-minded ideologue who won't take unscripted questions from ordinary Canadians.

Win win.

Paul said...

"What are your experts, hunters?"

Mostly no, some yes. If you are talking a block of individuals then I'll go with the guys shooting handguns at the clubs. Most know all gun laws inside out because the have to. There are alot of experts with our country's police forces that I would consider experts.
None within or influenced by the CACP.
The CACP has show it's cards and has to many other interests to be deemed creditable. (they get to much money from sources that are conflicts of interest such as CGI (gun registry computers) and taser international.)

Even the RCMP report that came out last month used studies that where funded by the Canadian centre to back up their point...pretty big azzed conflict.
If the registry did what they say it does it should be a joke to explain how it works to make the public safer.

Boils down to money, (doesn't everything) if the registry goes so does some funding to the CACP)

Ever try and reduce funding for a bureaucrat?


"You zealots have tunnel vision. Is it really such a big deal to register your gun, is it really the biggest issue going in your life?"

This is what you don't get!! Sport shooter and hunters have zero problem registering their guns...it takes no time and is no big deal. The big deal is the WHY the requirement to register. For public safety....LOL.
Since when anywhere in the world has gun registration reduced gun crime? Hunters and sport shooter believe (and rightly so) that the registry is the first step to confiscation. Now you may laugh and tell me to tighten the tin hat....but it has already started. The RCMP have already at the stroke of a pen started to reclassify guns as a legalized way to get them out of the hands of citizens. You have the Toronto police checking the licensing part to see whose has expired and then showing up at the door and taking the guns....for what, late paperwork?
These guns are not the problem. Allen Rock's statement about the only people who should have guns are police and military....Paul Martin talking about banning handguns etc etc.

All these things do not address the real issue. The crinimal misuse of firearms.
And you wonder why hunters and sport shooters are pissed?
I can drink and drive, kill someone and still get less jail time than if I get my paperwork wrong with my firearms. And you wonder why gun owners are pissed?
If gun owners had a guarantee that registration would never lead to confisication and the registry laws decriminalized(as written into law) then your gun debate would be over, everybody would still think the registry is usless but the "noise" would be done. If the Liberals actually brought this forward they would be welcomed by gun owners and hated by the Coalition for Gun Control. The Coalition for Gun Control is what got the Liberals into trouble in the first place....
You see, the Coalition will say that without criminalization the registry will have no teeth....that is code for we can't take their guns.

"The anti crowd is just irrational, way, way to emotional- always have been, always will. Actually, that's my point here with this poll, your side is more motivated,"

That is because they have the most to lose....its called a way of life.

Steve V said...

Ottlib

"After the vote on the registry I stated in my blog that the Conservatives want to change the channel."

Let me go on record now betting any taker that the Conservatives will volunteer this issue at every turn, in many ridings across the country.



Paul

"Hunters and sport shooter believe (and rightly so) that the registry is the first step to confiscation. Now you may laugh and tell me to tighten the tin hat"

And, this explains why you are an irrational ideologue, who fails to look at merit, and instead resides in a paranoid, fantasy world, where sensible debate is a perceived threat. Yes I laugh, and it just shows how gullible, frankly used, many in the gun community have become. Just keep writing those cheques to stop something that has never been contemplated by anybody!

Please spare me the way of life stuff, as though you are some intimate expert. I've lived amongst, I know it all very well and I've never disputed the realities. It seems you are the one that comes from a very narrow, sheltered perspective.

I'm done :)

Paul said...

I'm done :)...
easier that way for you isn't it.

Steve V said...

Yes it's easier to stop wasting my time with paranoid ideologues. I'm funny that way. Yawn.

Paul said...

"the decriminalization of non-registery of a long-gun (it should be a simple fine, nothing more) but the Liberals say they are willing to make that change."

...we agree on this.


By the way Paul, I am asking how you consider yourself to have a greater knowledge of our gun laws that the various police agencies do? For that matter you say the lawyers are not experts either. Who the heck is the expert in your mind, the NRA?

GEEz...I ask a simple queston earlier and am still waiting for an answer....
Anyway, I already explained about the police agency who I don't trust.
Some lawyers are experts...most aren't. Even the expert lawyers have a hard time getting registry offences through thet courts....there are to many errors in the information they are trying to use. Don't confuse licensing offences with registry offenses.

I hate the NRA....



Take this for what it is worth...
I have spent 22 years in various part of our firearms industry. From hunter, sport shooter, firearms verifier, forestry Canada, Department of Nattural Resources and have work with police on some firearm and ballistics projects.

I do know the difference between a 9mm and a .308....I also know the difference as to who is killing who on our streets and by what method. The registy does nothing.

Paul said...

"Yes it's easier to stop wasting my time with paranoid ideologues."

Did I say something that is not true....or do you need me to source the info for you?

Paul said...

BTW... here is the answer to the question...

Old FAC had a better rate of firearm license refusals than our new 2 billion dollar (and counting) firearm laws.

Refusal rate under the old FAC was
.76%

Refusal rate now under current law is .27%

So we are now leaving even more guns in the hands of people who should not have them....

Funny the "experts" maybe forgot to tell the public this....

Oh well...lets go smoke a joint, toddle off, and leave the gun stuff to the "experts".

CfSR said...

I don't see very many upsides in this poll for the Tories.

Forced to think about the long gun registry, Canadians are generally supportive.

But the Tories knew that, that's why their message was that they weren't scrapping gun control but only the registry.

Almost half of Tory supporters don't buy that argument. 47% of Tories support the retention of the long gun registry.

It's hard to agressively use the gun registry as a wedge when Harper needs the younger, female Tory voters who tend to support it.

And I do wonder how gun owners are suddenly experts on homicde and suicide.

Ted Betts said...

In case anyone might be wondering what Stephen Harper thought about the long gun registry before he needed to desperately cling to it in order to raise funds and hold onto his base:

"...the cost of licensing must be borne primarily by firearms users themselves. Those who are not gun owners should not be forced or even asked to subsidized those who do exercise this freedom."

"There must be higher priority on the right of Canadians to public safety than on the right to own and use firearms."

Ted Betts said...

Hey Paul, with respect to that bogeyman of fearmongering on confiscation, either you really are wearing your tinfoil hat or the geniuses who have that plan are moving so very very slowly with the plan to use the registry to confiscate guns that no one has noticed.

We've had a gun registry for nearly 80 years and no confiscation campaign. Try again.

Steve V said...

"I don't see very many upsides in this poll for the Tories."

I'm not of upside necessarily, but I'm less certain this is the slam dunk result some on our side see.

Paul said...

"We've had a gun registry for nearly 80 years and no confiscation campaign. Try again."

...so where did all the .32 and .25 calibre guns go back in the mid 90's?

What about this....


ctvtoronto.ca

The latest crime prevention project by Toronto police took aim at registered gun owners who opted to give up their firearms.

Police have seized about 400 guns since March after knocking on the doors of registered firearm owners.


Sounds alot like confiscation to me...

Lot easier to take guns from law abiding people than actually address the gun crime and gangs in toronto.

I'm sure this won't do as an answer though...nothing ever will.

Gayle said...

"The CACP has show it's cards and has to many other interests to be deemed creditable. (they get to much money from sources that are conflicts of interest such as CGI (gun registry computers) and taser international.}"

CGI, the company that designs the software used to operate the gun registry, once donated a bunch of Celine Dion tickets to the CACP at one of their conferences. In total it amounted to somwhere around 200+ dollars/active member. Because of this donation, people like Paul believe the police chiefs now support the registry.

That's right. People like Paul believe over 400 police chiefs in this country sold out their integrity for a chance to see Celine Dion.

marie said...

Bull sh*t Prarie kid. Now that you have guareenteed that 90% of the people have no idea , prove that statement before you flab your jaws on spin handed to you by the Reforatories Alliance CRAP party.

Man are you guys out to lunch and I would say desperate while the ship is sinking big time for your beloved Con party and your dictator leader.

I would be ashamed to call myself a supporter of this half baked party and a member of Harpers party. It will soon prove to be very embarassing to his supporters.

Ted Betts said...

Good news Paul. You are right. Your answer doesn't do as an answer.

"Confiscation": Seizure and expropriation of private property by a government or its agency as a punishment for breach of a law. In confiscation, a property is expropriated (see expropriation) without the consent of its owner and (unlike in condemnation) usually without any compensation."

If asking people to give up their guns and then those people voluntarily choose to do so, it isn't confiscation.

Steve V said...

"I'm sure this won't do as an answer though...nothing ever will."

No it doesn't do, because NOBODY has ever mentioned seizing firearms, that's a paranoid delusion that you keep interjecting to justify your position. It's total and complete nonsense, you have no real evidence, no quotes, no intent, no movement, no legislation, no grassroots movement to support, NO NOTHING, just this weird American militia-like mentality that fears gov't for it's own sake, rather than an substantive evidence.


Kooky.

Paul said...

AS I said Ted....nothing will to you.

Tof KW said...

Debating corporate tax cuts when our current rate is much lower than the US, EU or any other G8 nation:

- 6 comments

Harper’s controlling nature and resulting secretive nature of his government (breaking his 2006 promise of greater transparency):

- 13 comments

Discussion of the strategy of using the long-gun registry as an election issue:

- 46 comments, and counting

Economy on life-support, massive deficit, runaway spending from a supposedly conservative government. Is this really the most pressing issue to the average Canadian right now?

It speaks volumes that the Harperbots can’t shut up about the LGR. Anything to distract the public from the real issues.

Paul said...

No it doesn't do, because NOBODY has ever mentioned seizing firearms, that's a paranoid delusion that you keep interjecting to justify your position.
So answer my question then!!

Where did all the .25 and .32's go?

Or do you even know what I am talking about.

The police in Toronto are giving gun owners a choice....give up your guns or face charges for paper crimes, so the owners "opted" to give up their guns....did they want to, of course not!

Let me know how this stops the real problem. (gangs/handguns/drugs)

"Kooky."

...and putting a piece of paper beside a longgun somehow stops handgun crime committed by gang members, is a great thing and will reduce gun crime in our city's.

Or are you going to say that the registry was never ment for that?

Kooky is a great word....

Paul said...

"It speaks volumes that the Harperbots can’t shut up about the LGR. Anything to distract the public from the real issues."

LOL...enter the drone.
Are you even capable of not putting a political spin on everything?

Steve V said...

If you think the registry is a precursor to seizing your long guns, you sir are an absolute delusional idiot. That's my answer :) Seriously.

Paul said...

Great idea...

Why don't we register all the beer cans in canada cause when people drink and drive we can use the beer can registry to help stop that.

Ted Betts said...

Paul:

It's not confiscation or seizure if there is in fact no confiscation or seizure.

It's not an ideological or partisan point. It's a vocabulary point.

In the 80 years of the gun registry, no one is stopping you from getting a gun - long gun or handgun. There is no campaign to confiscate guns. Period. It is a conspiracy theory as laughable as 911 Truthers. Aside from appropriate criminal checks, it is still just as easy to buy, own and operate a gun as it is a car. Conservatives think guns and gun safety concerns should be treated less seriously cars and car safety concerns.

Steve V said...

I always marvel at people and their fiction "causes", that they devote themselves to. What's worse, the way they form a delusional circle jerk, and reinforce the delusion because they find other like-minded cranks. This is becoming more a psychology study than a debate about long guns IMHO

Paul said...

If you think the registry is a precursor to seizing your long guns, you sir are an absolute delusional idiot. That's my answer :) Seriously.

Registry is always a precursor to guns being taken from the public.

Do alittle reading...maybe start with Britian and Germany and get back to me what happen there.

(This won't happen of course cause you have an "idealogy" which is not based on facts)
You go with "the poliice said" so it must be good, and ignore every other source of information.

Paul said...

"Aside from appropriate criminal checks, it is still just as easy to buy, own and operate a gun as it is a car."

WOW.....

You do live in Canada right?

Guess I won't bother anymore, you don't have any idea what you are talking about...

Steve V said...

"Guess I won't bother anymore, you don't have any idea what you are talking about..."

Please stop wasting your time with people who live in the blue sky world Paul, you can't help us. Thanks for trying, and say hi to the unicorns in your fortress that you've created.

Ted Betts said...

This from the guy who thinks a voluntary release is seizure, that two thirds of Canadians are idiots, that our men and women in uniform are both idiots and liars, that despite over 80 years of the gun registry the cops are just waiting, anxiously waiting for that moment when they can seize all guns from innocent law abiding citizens because somewhere at sometime in some other country someone sort of did something similar (the evilness there was the registry which caused the police state, not the other way around of course).

But we agree on one thing. You are wasting your time. No one here will put on your tin foil hat. Goodbye.

Gayle said...

"You go with "the poliice said" so it must be good, and ignore every other source of information."

Someone who claims the only reason the Chiefs support the registry is because of monetary interests should not be complaining about how other people support their arguments.

By the way, the police will seize your automobile if it is not registered and insured.

Paul said...

At least this guy "gets it"

Credit Facebook


The Gazette October 8, 2010

Re: "Gun registry proves its worth" (Letters, Oct. 7). With all due respect,

the credit for the arrest of David Abitbol should go to Facebook, not the gun registry.

As a matter of fact, the social network has saved more lives and prevented more tragedy in the last few years than the gun registry did in the last 15 years! And it doesn't cost taxpayers anything to operate.

Michel Trahan Verdun

Dylan said...

Manitoba is holding it's third Gun Amnesty Month this October. Last time the amnesty campaign ran, back in 07, over 300 unused long-guns were brought in and countless rounds of ammunition.

The registry acts as a responsibility mechanism for owners. When a gun is stolen and used in a crime, part of the blame falls on a negligent owner. When Hennessey and Cheeseman provided Roszko with firearms, the registry was used to link them to the murders of 4 RCMP officers at Mayerthorpe. Had the guns not been registered, perhaps Hennessey and Cheeseman could be walking around today, lurking around Alberta with armed maniacs like Roszko.

True, the LGR did not stop the crime from happening, but that is not it's intention. Anyone mistaking the LGR for some sort of pre-crime institution is either a.) kidding themselves, or b.) being willfully ignorant for the sake of spreading ideology over facts.

"Is this a hot button urban issue in the next election? I don't think so, but it could be in rural ridings."

I wouldn't be too sure. I'm positive the LPC will use this in KW and Kitchener-Centre to energize those Liberal voters who stayed home in 08 to push out CPC incumbents. This issue is just another feather in the cap of former urban LPC ridings that were lost to Conservatives in the last election, and (hopefully) prevents urban vote-splitting with the NDP as they come out clear on this issue.