I remember that last time an incumbent government ran primarily on fear, little in the way of vision or positive undertones. Apparently, the Conservatives have forgotten how they rose to power and seem quite content to shift places, raising the possibility of similar outcomes. Watching Harper kick off his campaign yesterday with an almost surly disposition, he looked like a guy on the verge of losing it all, rather than one with poll wind at his back. Harper chose election eve "hair on fire" rhetoric for Day 1 of his campaign, and in so doing ended up stumbling out of the block. By contrast, calm, cool, confident, Ignatieff offered as tight a coalition rebuttal as possible, while Harper was left to defend his clear historical hypocrisy.
Reviewing the messaging, it does seem to appear the entire Conservative argument is predicated on fear. Parties conspiring to do untold harm, the economy in jeopardy, apparently waves of refugees on our shores, basically Canadians you risk it all unless you vote for the Conservatives. The problem, even the positive messaging seems to get lost in the overwhelming negative undercurrent. Now is not the time for change, so much is at stake if you dare flirt with the Liberals. Against an upstart, never tested party, possibly effective, but when fighting an opponent who's chief weakness just might be their all to known brand, the hysterics might get a bit hollow. Throw in an Ignatieff which is no lightweight, but any available "success in life" standards, the job of demonizing might not work, once people actually contrast the fear mongering with the flesh and blood. I note here, already indications from some quarters that Ignatieff will easily outpace low expectations.
A bit of a tired cliche, but there is an element of fear vs hope here, contrast the thrusts and it becomes readily apparent. The Liberals seem to be running a duel campaign of Harper ills and their alternatives, dare I say they have some semblance of a "vision". I don't see it with the Conservatives, at least their war room in all the pre-amble, not to mention the toe stubbed launch, seems to prefer fear mongering, gathering storm clouds everywhere.
I will never get ahead of myself, campaigns are forever and this one is still basically in utero. But, I must say, I'm encouraged by the early frames, particularly when one chief fear card is turning into a burning brown bag at Harper's doorstep. Fear, it's all they have apparently... Good.
16 comments:
I also wouldn't worry about polls that say that Harper is the most Trusted Leader. Over four hundred million dollars of PMO propaganda, and the transfer of wealth to the 3 conservative families that run Canadian media later, only those people who get their media from the spin factory believe those notions. And most of them are old and easily frightened.
We now also have the House report on the G20 that trashes the government, lays the blame at their door, and suggests there are still unanswered questions leading back to the PMO.
An election has never started without the incumbent enjoying an advantage on this score. Watch for those numbers to narrow as we move forward, even Dion saw this bump in campaign.
I see that National News Watch has nothing on the G20 report, but then NNW is part of the spin.
I still say momentum was with Dion on the thanksgiving weekend before that CTV non-interview was released. But when a PMO bought and paid for company like CTV speaks, people listened then.
I think that tape release cost us a few seats, no question about it.
http://www2.parl.gc.ca/Content/HOC/Committee/403/SECU/Reports/RP5054650/403_SECU_Rpt09_PDF/403_SECU_Rpt09-e.PDF
The G20 report hasn't made it onto the WellingtonStreetPost either, but then Wellington would have been firing real bullets into the protestors, not much of democrat that man, King William had to come to parliament to dissolve the House to keep Wellington from blocking electoral reform, so I don't expect much from a news aggregator named after the man.
this is amusing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbZjGGWk528
And media is buying it hook, line, and sinker.
Top headline at G&M right now:
Coalition would sow instability, Harper warns new Canadians
This a day after the issue was put to rest. Libs better give them something new and exciting to talk about tomorrow.
Maybe that's why Canadian rank auto mechanics above them on trust :)
Never underestimate the stupidity of the public or the media.
It's not just stupidity or laziness that has the media carrying the CONs water... there are plenty of ethically challenged people in the fifth estate -- it's their road into the senate, along with discounts on escorts.
from a cbc.ca article: "I wasn't trying to bring the Martin government down. I wasn't even tabling a confidence motion," Harper responded Sunday. (about the 2004 letter/vote)
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/03/26/cv-campaign-sunday.html
Harper has gone off the deep end. He was voting against the Speech from the Throne (along with the BQ and NDP). The Martin govt would have fell as the Speech from the Throne is a confidence measure.
Think the media will notice?
No, no, no, that is a picture of a Canadian who just saw what a Conservative, Bloc and NDP coalition would look like.
Ottlib That particular coalition would slide into National Socialism because the Bloq's Duplessiss feather would turn into a wing and then the bird, unite with the Texalberta conservatives, and the NDP would be towed in the wake doing it's best to negotiate scraps of jobs until they give up and do their best to hang onto their own jobs.
Harper is in trouble on the coalition front, he is being hammered and he is running from questions.
Jerry,
It still boggles my mind that the Conservative brain trust did not seem to believe that Mr. Harper's machinations of 2004 would not be brought to peoples' attention when they started talking about the coalition bugbear again.
If this is indicative of how the Conservatives are going to run their campaign this time we could all be celebrating a Liberal government during the evening of May 2.
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