Tuesday, March 22, 2011

"Tentative"

Don't think I can recall a large 9 point lead being referred to as "tentative" by a pollster, but when you delve into some numbers, Nik Nanos' hesitancy is better explained. What you see is a Conservative strong suit waning, coupled with very troubling numbers on a signature opposition attack line.


First, consider that the economy as a voter priority has no fallen to it's lowest level since the recession began. A little commented on finding, but one that clearly suggests, along with the Ipsos poll, that the economy isn't the singular focus issue people assume. Given the economy is the last remaining Conservative strongsuit, less importance equates to greater risk. Ipsos found we care more about good government than economic management, now Nanos pegs economic concern at it's lowest since the last election. Might be time for a rethink on what will or will not be the "defining" election issue. The opposition, particularly the Liberals, have made a big deal about the F-35 purchase. Nanos also finds the Conservative lead on the issue not as daunting as ome have assumed.

The Nanos result might partially explain the "tentative" designation, because the results are entirely one sided:
Sixty-eight per cent of Canadians agreed that “now is not a good time” to proceed with the $16-billion purchase of the F-35 fighter aircraft...

Even a majority (56 per cent) of voters who identified themselves as Conservative supporters oppose the acquisition. And three out of four undecided voters are opposed.

Only 27 per cent of those surveyed thought the federal government should “purchase now to prepare for the future.”

Sticking with the F-35s “is not necessarily a way to grow voter support,” Mr. Nanos concluded, in what might be a bit of an understatement.

Very rare to see a majority of Conservatives oppose a government decision, but this finding speaks to just how overwhelming unpopular the F-35 purchase has become. It gets worse, when you consider that a massive 75% of undecided voters don't want the F-35, suggesting sound ground for the Liberals, potential growth.

The F-35 isn't a complicated issue, the figures are large, the intention is known, this issue can and will resonate. I say will because the Liberals have made the F-35 a cornerstone criticism, it will be raised at every campaign stop, in ads, literature, we will have this discussion in some capacity. Additionally, these type of lopsided findings only serve to embolden the Liberals, very little "risk" in attacking the government on this file.

The polls aren't necessarily showing a shift in opinion (of note though, Harris Decima has moved from a 10% lead, to 8% lead, to 6% lead in the last month), but there is clear evidence of underlying weakness for the Conservatives. This reality might assist in understanding the very real apprehension the Conservatives have shown regarding an election, despite apparently attractive top line numbers.

19 comments:

Kirk said...

Might be as good as it gets for the Liberals before an election.

I consider an election the only chance the Liberals have to confront the Conservatives on an equal footing. Even though the media which is titled to the Cons will remain that way during an election.

We'll see what the NDP do.

Kirk said...

I meant the media is "tilted" to the Cons not "titled" to them. Unless you read "titled" as "owned" then that would be about right.

I expect Jack "My father was a Progressive Conservative cabinet minister" Layton will support the Cons like he has always done whenever it actually mattered.

Steve V said...

Word that the Conservatives have taken the unprecedented step of summoning Muclair for a last minute meeting on the budget. Yep, that sounds like a party in the driver's seat? Actions speak louder than superficial top end poll numbers...

Kirk said...

It would be funny if it wasn't so sad. The Cons attack line on Ignatieff is that he's only in it for himself and Harper is the PM who has been most driven by self-preservation since... well as long as I've been alive.

Mulroney, Chretien/Martin, Trudeau, they all went to the wall on issues but Harper has been pandering for votes for 5 years.

Though for Harper the big issues in the budget seldom matter, it's all about promoting a right wing world view and eliminating any and all small "l" liberal policies from our liberal democracy.

Harper's only economic concern is to constraint future govt's resources so they cannot implement new federal initiatives.

We'll see for certain where Layton stands soon, for himself or for his ideals.

Paul said...

"Word that the Conservatives have taken the unprecedented step of summoning Muclair for a last minute meeting on the budget. Yep, that sounds like a party in the driver's seat?"

I think the conservatives would like nothing more than go to the polls. Optics to the general public will be that they and the NDP are working on behalf of Canadians and puts the NDP in a weird spot of supporting the budget but they trying to vote non-confidence? If the NDP shoot it down then they(cons) can say we tried.
My guess if (and it is a big if) we go to election Con's win 140-155 seats.
Liberals need to define themselves better...or just be absorbed by the Conservates and NDP.

Steve V said...

The flip flop on the eco-rebates is classic. They'll do anything, power is their one principle now.

Steve V said...

"I think the conservatives would like nothing more than go to the polls. "

Ya, that's why nobody in Ottawa can remember a gov't begging the fourth party for a last minute meeting to stave off an election. Paul, you have some seriously dreadful instincts, either that or you're just a useless conbot. You're choice, but either way you're entirely underwhelming.

Paul said...

"Ya, that's why nobody in Ottawa can remember a gov't begging the fourth party for a last minute meeting to stave off an election. Paul, you have some seriously dreadful instincts"

What's your take then? How many seats do you see the Conservatives getting?

Steve V said...

I see them losing seats, 90 percent probability :) The way they're reacting, appears they clearly agree with me.

Paul said...

" I see them losing seats, 90 percent probability :) The way they're reacting, appears they clearly agree with me."

Only 90 percent?

Steve V said...

Absolutes are for fools.

Tof KW said...

Paul, I'm make a more realistic prediction. The CPC will probably drop 10-20 seats ...yes DROP 10-20 seats.

Unlike 2008 the CPC looks to be on the defensive this time around (Dion was in that position the last time) and that translates to Liberals actually voting instead of staying home. A lot of close Ontario riding where the CPC won by 2% or less are in play.

Unless the Liberals seriously fuck up on the campaign trail, I can't see them losing ridings, so they can only gain from the 77 they've got. I can see a CPC-125, LPC-92 result as very likely right now.

BTW - I know the CPC strategists are also thinking my way, because their words and body language give it away. Flanagan just last night on P&P complimented the NDP and hoped there's something in the budget for them. Ya, that shows the CPC-types really want to go to the polls. :P

Paul said...

"Absolutes are for fools."

So stand for nothing....

Omar said...

"I can see a CPC-125, LPC-92 result as very likely right now."

I can see an even more dramatic drop then that. I think the Harpercons will be the ones to dip into the double digits. They've lost BC, going to lose their tenuous little foothold in Quebec and flaky fucking Ontario is going to finally see the light in regards to these bozos. I'm bullish on this election and its outcome. Bring it on.

Steve V said...

Paul

ZZZZ. Deep as a bird bath.

Tof KW said...

Omar, I'm being conservative here, given my background.

But yes the potential is there for the CPC to take a serious hit, though I don't believe it's enough to loose government ...yet.

Omar said...

"yet"

Exactly. I believe the Conservatives are underestimating Ignatieff (I think they're scared to death of him quite honestly) and overestimating that Canadians are going to remain oblivious to just how decrepit a government they actually are. Anything can happen in a campaign of course, but I feel real good about an election NOW.

ottlib said...

Call it a gut instinct that is no way "scientific" but the beginning of this campaign has a different feel from the beginning of the previous three.

Campaigns matter and anything can happen but my gut tells me that the Conservatives are ripe for the taking.

We will see.

Steve V said...

I agree with that, this election is not starting where the Cons want it, and that is interesting to say the least.