Friday, March 25, 2011

New EKOS Poll

The latest EKOS poll includes post budget findings, as they set the baseline for the election campaign. In line with this week's Harris Decima poll, similar underlying theme to NANOS, EKOS shows a slightly narrowed, but statistically irrelevant 7 point lead for the Conservatives:
National federal vote intention:
¤ 35.3% CPC (up 1.2%)
¤ 28.1% LPC (up 2.4%)
¤ 14.2% NDP (down 2.2%)
¤ 10.6% Green (up .2%)
¤ 9.7% BQ
¤ 2.1% other

The Liberals enter the campaign where they were in 2008, the NDP 4 points lower, the Conservatives 3 lower. The Conservatives enjoy a 5 point in Ontario, the Bloc a gigantic advantage in Quebec.

NANOS pointed to some underlying weakness for the Conservatives. EKOS tends to confirm in one sense, as we see a sudden spike in the "direction of government" numbers:
Direction of country:
¤ 51.6% right direction
¤ 38.5% wrong direction
¤ 9.9% DK/NR •

Direction of government
¤ 41.7% right direction
¤ 47.9% wrong direction ¤ 10.4% DK/NR

For context, the numbers were virtually identical two weeks ago, and we see no corresponding change in the direction of country findings. In fact, we are now seeing a disconnect between mood of country and attitude towards the government. It would appear EKOS supports the idea that Harper and company have taken a hit with the recent scandals.

A solid Conservative lead, but not enough for anyone to feel confident. It would appear the ad barrage bounce has stalled, and some evidence of a soft underbelly.

35 comments:

Rotterdam said...

Liberals rejoice.
Harper will get re elected with another minority.

Steve V said...

Yawn.

Sean Cummings said...

I'll be far more interested in the polls during week three. Somewhere between yesterday's Ipsos poll and this one is likely a truer number, but seriously, Steve - Ignatieff absolutely needs to get this coalition thing off his back. He bombed during that scrum this afternoon and you can point at the Tories and say they did the same thing in 2004, but this isn't 2004 anymore and Canadians don't want the Bloc anywhere near the levers of power.

The press is going to hound Ignatieff on this. Just watch.

Steve V said...

Sean, no offence but you seem to be looking for trouble. That's your prerogative, but geez Harper hasn't even gone to the GG yet and your hair is on fire.

Sean Cummings said...

Not at all. I'm just a pol junkie like you. I'll probably vote Liberal if that question gets answered.

Will said...

Sean does have a point. It wasn't pretty to watch Ignatieff this afternoon trying to dodge that question. It looked like he wasn't prepared for it. I would have been up all night thinking about how to respond. It seems to be very risky to keep dodging the question.

Gene Rayburn said...

Is it just me or is Rotterdam acting like a Teddy Ruxpin with only one cassette tape?

Omar said...

"Harper will get re elected with another minority."

Yes, and at the first opportunity vote them down in a non-confidence motion and go see the GG about forming government. What's the GG going to do, mandate another election? Hardly. What's Harper going to do, prorogue incessantly? Let stupid Canadians believe that such a scenario is undemocratic or whatever. It's how the system works. Period. Without a majority, Harper's goose is cooked.

Steve V said...

Gene

Can't even get a decent troll or two.

Will

As I said in my last post, I'm not particularly impressed at our messaging here, seem flat footed, which isn't flattering. However, with no new information, the media will get bored, I've seen it happen to a thousand issues that Harper looked "got" on. He does need to tighten it up, just give a clean answer and move on.

Sean Cummings said...

>>Let stupid Canadians believe that such a scenario is undemocratic or whatever. It's how the system works.<<

Really? Do you honestly want the Bloc anywhere near the levers of power? Do you honestly want Libby Davies in a coalition cabinet with Liberals?

Canadians might not pay a lot of attention to politics, but they do know what the Bloc stands for and I wouldn't at all be surprised if people swing to the Tories to prevent such a scenario from happening.

Also, Canadians aren't stupid. The average voter knows when they're being had and while many feel powerless to change Ottawa, the prospect of the Bloc propping up an NDP/Liberal coalition scares the crap out of people.

He needs to put this issue to rest. Soon.

Omar said...

Listen Sean, I'm a progressive Canadian. I don't mind the Bloc and I certainly don't mind Libby Davies. I'm not quite sure what you are though, but if your posts are any indication you are nothing but some sort of 'concern troll' with all your sky is falling rhetoric. As I said, it's how our parliamentary system works regardless of what ill-informed citizens think.

Steve V said...

I'll take Libby Davies over Vic Toews all day long.

Sean Cummings said...

Omar - you'd be cool governing with separatists? Wow. Just wow...

Steve V said...

Sean

Did you complain when the Bloc supported Con budgets? Were you up in arms when Harper signed an agreement with the Bloc in 2004?

The Bloc will never be part of any coalition, but they may prop up, just as they've done with all governments.

Shiner said...

The real sad part about all of this is that the media have completely forgotten that Harper just refuses to talk to them. The Prime Minister won't answer scripted questions and he gets a free pass. Iggy puts himself out there and he's nagged with a hypothetical.

Kirk said...

Sean, the Bloc was never a part of the last coalition. They were never to be near "the levers of power".

They just AGREED to support the next budget, sight unseen.

Why do you imagine that they will be a part of any coalition government? Because the Conservatives say so?

Steve V said...

You know what Shiner, that is such a good point. Harper treats the media like dogs, Ignatieff is available, and we get this nonsense. All it shows, Harper has it right, avoid the media, all script, and you win. Sad.

Kirk said...

Ha! Your post is reprinted over at:

http://www.oyetimes.com/news/canada/10308-new-ekos-poll-shows-solid-conservative-lead

but with a different title.

Sean Cummings said...

>>Did you complain when the Bloc supported Con budgets? Were you up in arms when Harper signed an agreement with the Bloc in 2004?<<

But how do we know the mechanics of how a coalition would work. The Bloc would have to support every Lib/NDP bill and I just can't see that happening. Take a look at how many times the Bloc voted against Liberal government legislation - it's just not workable, guys.

Dylan said...

Why don't we do something INSANE ask the separatists themselves if they want to be part of a government?

The answer is deafening: No.

After all, it would be antithetical to their whole call for separation!

Question two: Can Ignatieff and Jack FORCE the Bloc to prop them up?

The answer is again as clear as day: No.

Just as the Bloc and NDP have passed Conservative budgets and legislation, the same situation would be in effect should the LPC form a minority.

Oh, and you can put me down for taking Davies over Toews as well.

Steve V said...

What if the Libs/NDP formed one? Let's not forget the Cons would have to support things as well, they'd be leaderless for awhile, plus they couldn't very well plunge us into another election. If the Libs can get to within say 20 seats of the Cons, then this scenario might fly, Libs, NDP and some loose commitment by Bloc to let a budget pass, then take it as it goes with Cons as well.

It really is amazing, that in a country like Canada, that prides itself on co-operation, civil undertakings, such madness revolves around a coalition. I actually think we could get more done with this set up.

Dylan said...

The 08 agreement called for guaranteed budget consultation and support from the Bloc; as well as cabinet solidarity on the budget. That's it. All other matters would be fair game for disagreement from amongst the LPC/NDP and from the LPC/Bloc and certainly the CPC against everything.

Moreover, we all knew the Harperites would bark day and night about coalition. Get used to it. Its going to be their chorus for the next 30-odd days. Progressives on the other hand are armed with GOOD IDEAS and passion for democracy. People will get tired of Harper's fear -- especially as the Carson scandal rolls on.

Kirk said...

Sean, your post is full of assumptions including the main one that the Liberal plus NDP seats would not on their own be a majority.

But the media will always repeat Con talking points so this is an issue that needs to be addressed.

It doesn't matter how much Liberal supporters disparage the media for repeating the Con talking points they must still effectively address the issue the media wants to yammer on about... or stop taking questions from the media.

Steve V said...

He's another good one for Conservatives, it was the Toronto Star reporter that was HOUNDING Iggy on the coalition today.

Kirk said...

People will get tired of Harper's fear...

Don't bet on it. Fear is a deep part of the human psyche and you can and many have built a campaign of much longer than 5 weeks solely on fear.

Rotterdam said...

Trudeau campaigned effectively without speaking to one reporter in 1980.

rockfish said...

I know Trudeau, I saw Trudeau. Rotterdam, so-called leader Stephen Harper is no Trudeau (although his budget numbers look similiar to later Trudeau budgets)...

marie said...

I have posted this on other blogs because the more articles I read, the more one needs to educate the blind the difference between a minorities versus majority government really is.

The liberals need to remind Canadians and the Harper government that a minority government is in fact a coalition party. That’s what democracy is all about. Every Canadian who voted for any opposition party is having his say and to insure all Canadians votes count.

Anything else is considered a dictatorship just like what we see in Egypt, Yemen, and Libya. Is that the kind of leadership and PM you want?

Its not the Canada I want now or ever.

Russell said...

"Anything else is considered a dictatorship just like what we see in Egypt, Yemen, and Libya. Is that the kind of leadership and PM you want"

Marie you forget that Ignatieff was appointed not elected as the liberal leader and you just describe him as a leader or PM you don't want. How democratic was the last Liberal leadership race.

Omar said...

If you vote for the NDP, if you vote for the Bloc and if you vote for the Greens, you'll get more of this: more contempt for democracy, more neglect of the priorities of Canadian families.

I like this message. To the point. Concise. Mathematically accurate. For every time some ReformCon says "coalition" I'd counter with something like this. I'd leave out the 'red tent' reference though because it just sounds hokey. I'd also relax on the use of the word 'compassion'. As much as I wish to see the Harper regime replaced, Liberals bleating about how compassionate they are and how compassionate they'll be in government rings hollow. It sounds untrue. I think compassion and I think NDP, not the Liberals. Unfortunately.

Steve V said...

Latest Angus Reid poll, which shows a large Con lead:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/962129--tories-on-brink-of-majority-as-election-called?bn=1

ottlib said...

So the two Reids indicate the Conservatives have healthy leads while three other polling companies make it look much closer.

Whom do you believe?

Well it should be noted that both Reids have historically indicated the Conservatives are doing better than other polling companies.

Curious really because they are polling the same population so you would think that there would be some agreement between all of them.

In the end I do not believe any of them. Public pollsters do not conduct polls to inform the public they conduct polls to provide their media clients with content and they have their own agendas, which does not really include informing the public any more either.

Gayle said...

"How democratic was the last Liberal leadership race."

Totally, 100% democratic. Anyone could have run against him. just because no one chose to do so does not mean it was not democratic.

Time for you guys to find a new schtick.

Steve V said...

I know, I know, but the only reason Ignatieff was able to assume the helm is because every Liberal knew that he had an almost insurmountable lead. That backdrop made the move much less a coup and more a "just get it over with".

ottlib said...

People still crying over how Mr. Ignatieff became leader of the Liberal Party need to get over it.

If you are a Conservative complaining about it your opinion really does not count. You would find fault with Mr. Ignatieff even if he found a cure for cancer, scored the winning goal in the last mens' Olympic gold medal hockey game, and negotiated a lasting and just peace between Israel and Palestine.

If you are Liberals that are still pissed about it get over it. We are in an election now, he is not leaving. So you have a choice, accept him as leader and work to defeat the Conservatives or let Stephen Harper win another election. If you cannot do the former then you are just sad, bitter people.