National federal vote intention:
¤ 35.3% CPC (up 1.2%)
¤ 28.1% LPC (up 2.4%)
¤ 14.2% NDP (down 2.2%)
¤ 10.6% Green (up .2%)
¤ 9.7% BQ
¤ 2.1% other
The Liberals enter the campaign where they were in 2008, the NDP 4 points lower, the Conservatives 3 lower. The Conservatives enjoy a 5 point in Ontario, the Bloc a gigantic advantage in Quebec.
NANOS pointed to some underlying weakness for the Conservatives. EKOS tends to confirm in one sense, as we see a sudden spike in the "direction of government" numbers:
Direction of country:
¤ 51.6% right direction
¤ 38.5% wrong direction
¤ 9.9% DK/NR •
Direction of government
¤ 41.7% right direction
¤ 47.9% wrong direction ¤ 10.4% DK/NR
For context, the numbers were virtually identical two weeks ago, and we see no corresponding change in the direction of country findings. In fact, we are now seeing a disconnect between mood of country and attitude towards the government. It would appear EKOS supports the idea that Harper and company have taken a hit with the recent scandals.
A solid Conservative lead, but not enough for anyone to feel confident. It would appear the ad barrage bounce has stalled, and some evidence of a soft underbelly.