Monday, March 21, 2011

Second To "No One"

Two polls yesterday, which do deliver striking results. Particularly, this dismissive notion that any election will be solely about the economy is challenged by Ipsos Reid. In fact, the Liberals chosen ground on ethics and accountable looks quite fertile, despite the fact the focus doesn't suggest immediate gain. Nanos brings another large Conservative lead, and yet the pollster finds rumblings that suggest all is not well with good ship Harper.

The headlines for the Ipsos poll reads "Conservatives best party to deliver honest government:
Here’s why:

• 28% of Canadians believe the Conservatives, if re-elected, would do the best job of “providing honest, open and trustworthy government.”

• 22% believe the NDP would do the best job of this.

• Just 15% say the Liberals would be best at providing honest, open and trustworthy government.

• 7% say the Bloc would be best.

• 29% don’t endorse any of the major parties as best to deliver this type of government.

The conclusions suggest a glaring omission. A sitting government second to "no one" on questions of trust, honesty and openness isn't "best", it's actually alarming. Voters opt for these issues over the economy by a massive margin, a result that flies in the face of all the conventional wisdom. The Conservatives don't want a focus on these issues, if any one doubts, note how their entire thrust to date is economic in nature. Despite the superficial headline, and it's arguments, this result is anything but good news for the Conservatives.

I'm not mimimizing the Liberals challenges, these results also show a radical brand change is required. Both this poll and the Nanos offering show Conservative weakness, in one form or another, and yet the Liberal aren't benefiting. The Ipsos poll partially explains, voters simply don't trust the Liberals, so despite the Conservative transgressions, they are somewhat immune, maintain almost by default. Despite this circumstance, we see once again that the Conservatives really aren't formidable, the party that ran on openness and accountability enjoys paltry support on this score, meaning opportunity exists. From the Liberal perspective, rather than discouraging, this result provides optimism, develop a bold, forward thinking argument and you might just pump fresh air into a stale brand. THEN, the hesitant attitude of the electorate can be addressed, and we can see direct co-relations, Conservative failing equate to Liberal gains. All you can ask for is a chance, Ipsos says our thrust has surprising resonance, but the messenger is lacking in credibility.

Nanos shows all the scandals are taking a bite out of the "Harper Government". Ipsos shows that Canadians actually do care about good government, it can be a central theme in an election. Ipsos shows that the current government barely enjoys 1 in 4 support on these good government questions, meaning a huge pool of discontent is available to alternative presentations. Conservatives can comfort themselves with "first" and still large leads, but I doubt anyone in the PMO is happy today with either poll, and that says a lot moving forward.

13 comments:

Shiner said...

Here's hoping "Government found in contempt" isn't thrown in the back of the Lifestyle section in tomorrow's papers.

Fat Arse said...

@Shiner,

No but if CTV has it's way they will lead with the story of 2(only TWO?) Cdn jets that are partaking in today's Libyan actions - then they will update Charlie Sheen, American Idol, and the cock-size of Donald Trumot before they get to the point where they introduce that subservient cunt Robert Fife to give us his take on the "in contempt" ruling that he said, this very morning on air, were the results of "little scandals"! "Little scandals"? Of course, in CTV's eyes everything that affects ans diminishes our democracy under Hapo & Co. is only a "little scandal"... pricks!

Fat Arse said...

correction - "Trumot" = Trump

Jerry Prager said...

It will come down to the Liberal Platform and how genuine the democracy renewal package is, if it is real, it will be a healthy Liberal minority.

Steve V said...

Still waiting...

Möbius said...

My prediction: no election. The NDP knows it would lose seats to the Libs, the CPC knows it will get approximately the same minority government it already has. The Libs would only do it for the purposes of regime change.

Enough budget goodies for the NDP, and grudging support follows.

I'm only wrong about 19 times out of 20, 50% of the time, on days that end in the letter "y".

Kirk said...

So, if we can spend $40 million on advertising ethics could be a winning issue for Liberals?

Shiner said...

Whatever happens, the Liberals have put the CPC on the defensive. The media are taking Ignatieff seriously for the first time in at least the past year, heck even Coyne gave him props for his interview on CTV. Despite the polls the Liberals are the only party looking strong right now, and the Cons are hiding under the bed.

Jerry Prager said...

Democracy platform won't come until the ship sales I think.

A Eliz. said...

Harris Decima say ..aabout the same as 2008 Con. 34, down 2 since2008, Liberals 28 up 2 in since 2008

Steve V said...

One point, the Cons down 2 in that poll, Libs unchanged, NDP up 3. Change since last HD poll.

The Dude said...

It amazes me that somehow it's agreed that you can't take Harper on the economy. Anything he did well was becasue of what the libs left in place for him with a nice 13 Billion cushion.

Jerry Prager said...

There is only one reason Harper has such an easy ride on the economy and that's because he has used hundreds of millions of dollars in actionplanadscam payments to the 3 conservative media chains that own 80% of the media in Canada,(and which had been on the verge of bankrupcy before his transfer of wealth) to buy the most massive spin cycle the nation has ever seen.