Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Give The NDP Some Credit

The NDP on the edge, their very survival now in question, according to the exaggerated, incredibly superficial "analysis" coming out in the wake of Layton's announcement. I say BULLOCKS to all of it, and I say it as a Liberal. Why must we wildly overstate a situation with some many variables, so many moving parts, particularly in such short order? I'm prepared to give the NDP a little more credit than what I'm hearing spewed out this morning.

No one doubts the popularity of Jack Layton, nor the fact the NDP has made his personal image synonymous with the brand. Should Layton not return, there are obvious uncertainties, the NDP will have to retool their message and rework their presentation. However, to elevate this issue to the point of outright crisis, I think it does the NDP a bit of a disservice to be honest.

To my mind, the NDP are an established brand in English Canada, so "fallout" has potentially less consequence. The real question revolves around Quebec, that is where Layton's popularity had an enormous effect. However, if you must think about potential contenders, the most obvious name is hardly a question of "survival" in Quebec, very popular, very entrenched, very capable of holding these gains. The NDP have obliterated the Bloc, the province isn't going back, so assuming without Layton the party falls to nowhere, fails to incorporate the emerging new realities. The NDP party hierarchy have already shown their intentions in the election aftermath, it's all about shoring up support, turning the watery wave into firm concrete, this continues with or without Layton, people don't give up when faced with new challenges. As WELL, let's not forget the underlying appeal, the NDP policies are very, very compatible with Quebecers, their chief hurdle was always appearing a true contender, being taken seriously. With the overwhelming result of the last election, the NDP are now a practicality in Quebec, they've overcome the credibility hurdle, so thoughts of them simply disappearing in short order, I don't understand at all.

Let's assume Layton doesn't return (hope I'm wrong). People wondering if the party can survive make certain assumptions. One, there is simply no one who is capable of providing solid leadership after Jack Layton. Two, the party really has no resonance beyond leadership, their policies are irrelevant, all the messaging an afterthought, take away Layton and everything evaporates. Three, the NDP have a team with no capabilities, they played no role in cultivating Layton's image, arming him with cutting edge ads and narratives. Four, all these new NDP MP's can't shine, they can't show Quebecers their trust was earned, they can't grow in the next four years. Believe me, I understand the role of leadership in success(and I think we Liberals really do need a saviour, despite thoughts to the contrary), but to hear much of the talk today, you have to possess a pretty narrow, static gaze to comprehend the dire potentials. Again, the superficial assessments are actually a bit insulting, perhaps an underlying valid point, but failing to incorporate the pragmatic capacity. The NDP will face challenges, but in many regards they will control their own fate. Should the NDP react with strategic wisdom and solid reasoning, the party will be fine and prosper, should they make boneheaded choices, like all parties they will fail. One thing is clear in Canadian politics, the initial tendency to overstate every development remains a center problem :)

14 comments:

Paul said...

First point....Hope Jack recovers quickly and comes back.

If the NDP's power base was in english Canada then they could adapt minus Jack without many headaches. The problem they now have is a huge part of their caucus resides inside Quebec, most of which have no experience. We will just have to wait and see what sort of chaos the Quebec wing of the NDP stir up if Jack fails to come back. Could there be a split english/french NDP?

Greg said...

Jack Layton was 11 when the NDP was formed. I think it will be around for a while yet. I find it shocking how convinced the MSM is that the NDP is one man. It just goes to show how degraded our politics (and political reporting) has become.

Tof KW said...

"Could there be a split english/french NDP?"

I highly doubt it. OK this is all hypothetical if (and it's a big if) Layton doesn't come back as full-time leader. I have to think that prime candidates for the permanent leadership would include Mulcair & Dewar. Both are seasoned, highly competent, good orators, and both would do well in Quebec - especially Mulcair.

Now if they do something dumb like elect Libby Davies as leader, then they have a problem (in English Canada as mush as French). But like our host here, I give the NDP way more credit than a lot of the so called 'experts' are doing in the media today.

Incidently, I was thinking there would only be a 50/50 chance of Layton running in 2015, simply because he might be considering retirement as he'd be 65 years old by then and in politics for 33+ years. (BTW - I also think there is a 50/50 chance that Harper won't run again either, depends on the polls in 2014.) I certainly hope that Jack is healthy and making that decision himself before the next election.

Steve V said...

I agree with KW, Dewar and Muclair are both formidable, particular Dewar I think is very likeable and full of substance. Davies would be a wet dream for we Liberals :)

Dame said...

The NDP is very fragile its present sitting numbers doesn't really means much .never thought as something solid.
jack .. was a big problem for me but I wish him well now and have a paceful retirement..
I don't expect him back in the 'arena'

DL said...

Steve, I know we have locked horns in the past - but you have written a couple of very nice postings yesterday and today. There are times when we can set partisan sabre rattling aside and be human beings and look at things objectively.

Needless to say, I agree with you completely and don't have much to add. Jack is an asset to the NDP but he is not indispensable (no one ever is). In fact some people who everyone thinks is indispensable turn out to be very dispensable (hello Paul Martin)

Regarding possible successors - I tend to agree that people like Mulcair and Dewar would be obvious potential candidates. Gary Doer could also come back from Washington...don't waste your time going on about Libby Davies, I am about 99% sure would never run in the first place. I don't think she wants it and the fact that she speaks no French would totally disqualify her anyways.

sharonapple88 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sharonapple88 said...

Davies would be a wet dream for we Liberals :)

So would Pat "Restraining Order" Martin. ;)

I agree with what was noted above on how people are underestimating the NDP when they start writing the party's obituary. Jack Layton's important to the party, but its just not going to wilt without him.

Regarding possible successors - I tend to agree that people like Mulcair and Dewar would be obvious potential candidates. Gary Doer could also come back from Washington

I think Mulcair and Dewar have a decent shot at leadership. I can't see Doer running. He'll be 67 in 2015. His opposition to Meech Lake and his feud with Dr. Morgentaler may also pose problems.

If there is a leadership race for the NDP, it'll be weird to consider that all the opposition leaders will be different come the next election with the Bloc and the Liberals also seeking new leaders in the next few years.

Let's hope that Harper decides that he'd like to finish his book on hockey when 2015 rolls around. :P

DL said...

I think that when the day comes for the NDP to pick a new leader there would almost certainly be a top tier female candidate in the running. Peggy Nash speaks French very well, was party President, was an MP before, is finance critic and even has nice hair!

CK said...

Gary Doer wouldn't be electable in La Belle Province.

Paul Dewar would have to take some French lessons and pick up joual very quickly. It's my understanding that he doesn't speak the language.

As for Mulcair, well, let's just say there's more than the most of the world knows.

CK said...

We will just have to wait and see what sort of chaos the Quebec wing of the NDP stir up if Jack fails to come back. Could there be a split english/french NDP?

That was already a strong possibility even if Jack Layton remained healthy and strong and sticking around as leader.

CK said...

Incidently, I was thinking there would only be a 50/50 chance of Layton running in 2015, simply because he might be considering retirement as he'd be 65 years old by then and in politics for 33+ years. (BTW - I also think there is a 50/50 chance that Harper won't run again either, depends on the polls in 2014.)

Layton might have entertained it, but there would've been pressure from the party and constituents to stay, and depending on this health, he likely would've stayed.

As for Harper? PLease! He's sticking around until he achieves that goal for a neo-con utopia for Canada. He'll probably die in office.

Möbius said...

I've said before that the media is not right-wing or left-wing. They merely pick the most facile way of presenting the latest news, whatever will gain them the most eyeballs.

Möbius said...

I've stopped watching CTV in the morning, because of the obsession with celebrity news, and funny weathermen. Why should I trust them to tell me what's important.