Tuesday, October 04, 2011

Trending Liberal

Yesterday, we saw conflicting polls, but that divergence has quickly evaporated, as the new Nanos suddenly looks a lot like the earlier EKOS, while the new EKOS shows further widening of the Liberal lead. In a nutshell, two big pollsters are showing a late break to the Liberals it would seem, with EKOS openly talking about a Liberal majority.

Last night, NANOS came out with their final result, which showed considerable swing:
OLP 38 #PCPO 33.2 #ONDP 25.8

Libs up 3, PC down 3, NDP same

That's quite a big change for a rolling poll, but interestingly it reconciles with the EKOS offering, both now showing a decent Liberal lead, evidence of late breakers moving. This morning, we are still officially waiting on the EKOS numbers, but all indications point to an expansion of the 7% lead yesterday, further Liberal momentum:
"A new EKOS poll to be released to iPolitics later this morning suggests Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have opened up a clear and probably insurmountable lead on their rivals in the final stages of the Ontario campaign."

Last night on twitter, Frank Graves openly spoke of a Liberal majority scenario as well.

Details aside, it appears the Liberals have another wave of momentum. The first big moves came just as the campaigns geared up, the "insurmountable" PC lead evaporated quickly. Now, in the crucial late stages, cautious evidence that people are moving again and it spells big trouble for Hudak. The problem now, there are no saviour headlines for the PC's, it's all about what is going wrong, shrinking odds, the polls will fuel an air of decline right through to the ballot box. Federal Liberal supporters know too well this scenario, pretty much guaranteed defensive posture now for the Hudak PC's. On the flip side, McGuinty has wind at his back, momentum at the perfect time.

Of course, we can still expect big surprises Thursday, by no means counting chickens. However, if you're planning out an optimal "end game", these polls feed a best case scenario for Liberal fortunes, obviously this is the preferred trend as people make their final arguments.


EKOS and Nanos out with their internals. EKOS gives the Libs a large 10% lead now, and interesting to note the numbers hold relatively well on the likely voter question. Nanos pegs PC support at the lowest of the campaign, both pollsters show cratering support. As well, the NDP look flat, which could suggest some bleeding if Liberals have the momentum.




sharonapple88 said...

It's interesting to compare Ekos and Nanos with the Forum poll.

sharonapple88 said...

(Ops, posted when I wanted to preview.)

Ekos and Nanos tell one story (Liberals up), Forum another (it's a statistical dead heat). We'll find out on election day. (I keep on feeling that Forum keeps on calling the same people over and over again. :P)

Elections do matter. Who'd think that the Conservatives with a double-digit lead at the start of the summer would be where they are right now?

Steve V said...

Forum looks like an outlier, and the robo call thing is dubious IMHO.

sharonapple88 said...

Forum looks like an outlier, and the robo call thing is dubious IMHO.

It's really starting to look that way.