Thursday, May 10, 2012

NDP Bounce Will Hold

The latest Harris Decima poll cements a robust NDP, now at 34%(33% Apr 30) compared to the Conservatives at 30%(unchanged) and the Liberals at 20%(unchanged). Without seeing the internals we can surmise they remain much the same as the previous offering, wherein the NDP had a massive lead in Quebec, competitive for first in Ontario and strong in British Columbia. You have to be careful with early leadership polls, people will recall the Liberals temporarily vaulting to first in the aftermath of Dion, then Ignatieff, only to see numbers erode in fairly quick order. However, I'm prepared to posit this NDP "honeymoon", "bounce", is somewhat different and fully expect it to hold for a number of reasons.

I fully expect Conservative Mulcair attack ads to begin soon, but the absence to date is telling in the sense there is no obvious target here, easy shots don't readily come to mind. Particularly in Quebec, I'm hard pressed to see any reason for people to abandon Mulcair and the NDP, look elsewhere, at least short term. The NDP have a base, which I argue will hold, given the leader, his environmental credentials, as well as a lack of compelling alternatives.

It's been a tough few months for the Harper government, perhaps the longest sustained period of negativity I can recall. The Conservatives sit at 30%, which is basically bottom since the right united, further erosion unlikely. Beyond that core support, there is serious trouble however, one can even posit these Conservative may be passing their "best before date" as a government, the signs are readily available. What is interesting in the polling, analysis does show softer Conservative support bleeding to the NDP. Traditional voter movement in some regions of Canada, but quite noteworthy elsewhere, an emerging new dynamic which speaks to an evolving NDP. That voters fed up with the Conservative regime are now turning to the NDP, this suggests a new found resilience for the NDP. Played correctly, there is an opportunity here for the NDP to solidify any public perception change. In other words- unsettling to we Liberals- the NDP are becoming the defacto alternative in the minds of Canadians, an angle that deserves particular attention, old trends are breaking down in fundamental ways.

I am not suggesting no future "wane" in NDP support, nor am I naive enough to believe these Conservatives don't have the capacity for rebound. As well, Liberals do have an opportunity with this looming leadership, if realities are properly digested, it could provide a springboard to shake up the current predicament. That said, I don't view recent polling as a blip, I expect the NDP to remain within range of the Conservatives. I don't see a temporary honeymoon, at least not in the historic sense, there is something a bit more substantive occurring in the land...

5 comments:

Jerry Prager said...

Just what we need a right wing NDP.
You get rid of right wing liberalism, and replace it with right wing social democrats. And the circle turns.
The fact is however, the Muclair and co have three years of spinning their wheels in which they can accomplish nothing, which will start to get shrill.
What's actually happened in this country is that the right wing media is finally turning on Harper, his benefit of the doubt room is gone.

DL said...

To be fair, I think one the reasons why Dion and Ignatieff's honeymoons were so short and why Mulcair is likely to last a lot longer is that Dion and Iggy both became leader and were each instantly thrown into very challenging situations due to the minority government that caused their leadership to be tested very early. No sooner did Dion become leader than the he had to make the decision to keep abstaining on non-confidence votes and that all fed into the "not a leader" meme. Similarly, Ignatieff's ascension to the leadership was the product of the "original sin" of having to walk away form the coalition agreement, then getting tripped up with his "Mr. Harper your time is UP!" line that turned out to be a fiasco he never really recovered from. In contrast, Mulcair can probably look forward to three years of smooth sailing as opposition leader - free to oppose the government all he wants and never having to make tough decisions on whether or not to "pull the trigger" etc...

Steve V said...

Jerry

And you won't hear one peep out of NDP supporters even though they're clearly moving to the center, just like Dexter did, just like Doer did, just like Calvert did, just like very single NDP entity that has become a serious player. A taste of power, so long as it has a orange hue, is all that matters.

sharonapple88 said...

There's a bit of a spotlight on Nathan Cullen lately. He seems to be front and centre on a number of issues. No strike against the NDP or Cullen on this, he's incredibly smooth. Too bad he didn't win.

DL said...

Cullen is very smooth - especially the top of his head!