Saturday, June 23, 2007

Angus-Reid Online Poll

No movement in the horserace numbers for this poll, although compared to others, Angus-Reid clearly underestimates Liberal support:
Public support for Canada’s main political organizations remains virtually stagnant, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing Conservatives in the next federal election, while 27 per cent would support the opposition Liberal party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 19 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent. Support for the Tories, Liberals and Greens fell by one point since late May, while backing for the NDP and Bloc increased by the same margin.

Good news for the NDP, which has improved steadily since the winter. I attribute this to two factors, hesitation with others and the NDP finally training their criticisms solely on the government, instead of pre-occupying themselves with Liberal bashing- the NDP has been far more effective since they adopted the former.

Some interesting results in the internals, with "neither" outpacing both Harper and Dion:

Which of these two leaders would make the best prime minister of Canada?

Apr. 20 May 21 Jun. 15

Harper 36%..31%..33%

Dion 18%..17%..17%..

Neither 34%..41%..38%

Still waiting for Neither's environmental plan before I get on board, but no question he/she looks hard to beat.

Bad news for Harper's negatives:

Over the course of the past month, would you say your opinion of Stephen Harper has improved, stayed the same or worsened?

Apr. 20 May 21 Jun. 15

Improved 17%.. 20%.. 9%
Stayed the same 54%..53%..48%
Worsened 22%..32%..37%

Of note, Dion's numbers have stabilized, with less people having a negative opinion over time.

While the Conservatives stop the horserace slide, Harper's numbers continue to erode, which suggests softening support. Again, these internals show Harper weakening without a corresponding bump for the Liberals, which highlights a lingering hesitation with the Liberals.

14 comments:

knb said...

the NDP finally training their criticisms solely on the government, instead of pre-occupying themselves with Liberal bashing

Well, if that is true, expect their numbers to fall again because they are back at it. Take a gander at their web site. Dawn Black spends more time bashing the Libs than she does describing her stance on Afghanistan.

It's going to be an interessting summer. I know Harper will be covered by media. I wonder how much everyone else will be?

The media seemed quite pleased to see the back end of the politicians on Thursday, :).

Steve V said...

knb

I read it- what vision! Liberals bad. Yawn.

Scott Tribe said...

I would attribute the NDP's rise to another factor:

This is an online poll. When a couple of other polls that are REAL polls show me that, I'll believe it.

Steve V said...

scott

The other polls have shown the same trend. Besides, the internals are relevant, particularly when the Liberal numbers are low. If this poll had a bias, then you wouldn't expect the poor Harper showing, would you?

I've asked you before Scott, have you looked at the last two provincial results, where the online poll was most predictive? I more concerned with the NOW, over what Zogby did two years ago :)

Scott Tribe said...

None of the other REAL polls have the NDP at 19% Steve.. you're kidding yourself by saying they have the same "trend".

As long as you continue to post stuff that tries to make Angus-Reid's methodology as perfectly accurate, you're going to have me harping that it is not. Again, I attribute this to the activists being on in greater #'s then the traditional polls are.

Steve V said...

Actually, come to think of it, Layton was bragging about the NDP coming back up in the polls just yesterday on CTV. I don't think he knew of this particular poll, but it does suggest that this one is consistent.

Steve V said...

Scott

There is a trend, and your kidding yourself by not acknowledging it. 19% may be a touch high, but well within the MOE of others, 17%, 18%. Also, the sample size for this poll is HUGE.

BTW, why do you conveniently ignore the provincial polls I cite??? They were within decimal points of exact, both done in the last months, which has far more weight with me that comparing it to Zobgy's ancient findings, who is notorious for playing with his numbers anyways, even in the traditional polls- see New Hampshire Democrats 2004.

Steve V said...

Decima June 12 NDP 18%

Mustel June 11 NDP 29% in British Columbia up 9% since March

Strategic Council May 19 "The NDP, buoyed by gains in the West, rose three percentage points to 16 per cent."

Steve V said...

Scott, I will provide you the links

Manitoba

Quebec

I understand the historical problems, but the medium is evolving and they are honing their results apparently. I am offering two concrete examples, from the most recent elections. What are you offering?

knb said...

Steve, I've never explored how to be included in the on-line polls. Do you know?

I had a membership at Ipsos, (that was given to me for free), but have never been polled.

Steve V said...

knb

This is a pretty good article that looks at all sides.

rockfish said...

There's great news in this poll for CONserfatives if they can convert the momentum of the 'dislike Harpor' into something akin to 'i want an angry bully for PM' movement.
Of course, as tho this poll has been leaked to the major drummers, Harpor has made a few quizzling moves this past week to attempt to soften his Hagar the Horrible image. Like 'consulting' on Afghanistan -- like where is that coming from? It's been 'dictate on Afghanistan' the past year and a half. Stand up for native land claims also comes out of left field, especially when you consider Harpor's angel-on-his-shoulder is none other than faustian Tommy Flanagan. He got most of his ideas on native rights from ol' John Ford movies.

ottlib said...

Online polling is still a new methodology so I agree with Scott, their results should be taken with a grain of salt. Of course, the same could be said of all polls but moreso in these cases.

Which is not to say that they cannot produce accurate results. However, they are prone to be taken over by "activists" who can skew the results and you never know if that is the case for any given online poll.

Looking at the result, they are consistant with the trends. The numbers are different from other polling companies but the trends are not. The difference in numbers is likely the result in the difference in methodology for this poll over other polls.

Looking at past Angus-Reid polls and comparing it to this one you see the Conservatives have lost support while the Liberals have held steady, which is exactly what every other polling company has been saying for a few weeks.

Steve V said...

ottlib

You will notice that I started the post noting that they clearly under-represent the Liberals support. Besides that point, the trends, as you mention, are still consistent with other polls and that is where I find use. Cons down, Libs consistent, NDP an uptick, completely consistent with every other recent poll, which gives me some confidence.

It is a new medium, it is flawed, but again the old methods have there problems too. The fact they accurately predicted the last two provincial elections at least says this isn't some wigged out, corrupt process that we can completely disregard.