Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Liberals Take The Lead?

New Decima Poll, which is the first to show the Liberals moving ahead:
A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have fallen three percentage points behind the Liberals in popular support, still within the survey's margin of error but a trend the Harper government would no doubt like to reverse.

The poll by Decima Research, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, placed Liberal support at 32 per cent, the Conservatives at 29 and the NDP at 18. The Bloc Quebecois and Green party were tied nationally at nine per cent.

The poll also put the Liberals ahead in Ontario, 39-33, and had the Bloc rebounding in Quebec to 38 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 23 and the Conservatives at 16 per cent.

Decima concludes the Tories have lost support in Atlantic Canada (shocker) and Quebec. Still within the margin or error, there is a psychological component that is good news for the Liberals, and further disappointment for the Conservatives. I can't remember the last time I say a poll with the Conservatives under 30%.

18 comments:

knb said...

I can't remember the last time I say a poll with the Conservatives under 30%.

Me either. I wonder if Dion is going hold a press conference? I know he's meeting with MacDonald this afternoon, as is Layton.

Steve V said...

There were quite a few no shows in QP today, including Williams who was supposed to be in the gallery. Should be an interesting afternoon :)

knb said...

Williams? Danny? I've seen him interviewed quite a bit today, but he was in Nfld.

I thought that MacDonald was supposed to be in the gallery.

Re' the no shows, sounds like another "locked door" meeting to me.

burlivespipe said...

I can't remember the last time I say a poll with the Conservatives under 30%.

Wasn't it early in the 2005-06 election? I think we should be careful to over-inflate the importance here, as it does not appear that much of the lead is from a Liberal performance/plan, per say, but from Harpor and his harpocracy inserting foot and other body parts into their mouth.

While the tory-tooners are still defending their leader as 'a leader,' the only conceivable means that Deceivin' Stephen is actually on top of 'his game' is if he's engineered part of this scrambled egg to try a different approach to boost a fellow CON. He failed at a straight bribe (Charest) but now with Macdonald in a precarious minority, Harpor has single-handedly given the NS fiddler the numbers for a majority.
I agree that's strictly Alice in Wonderland kind of talk, but I thought I'd spit it out before the Tory-abots did;^)

Steve V said...

burl

I agree, these results say more about Conservative problems, than Liberal positives.

knb

Maybe I misunderstand, I thought they said Williams :)

Anonymous said...

if decima has libs in the lead you can be sure the tories are WAY behind and the ndp are also forging ahead...would it not be just about time for nik nanos to give us a good poll....the cons putting us ahead means we are way ahead.

Canadian Tar Heel said...

The polls are one thing, but Dion's mediocre to poor standing in Quebec worries me a bit.

ottlib said...

Remember the time in the election cycle.

Ordinary Canadians are not paying attention to politics. One of the implications of that is the incumbent always has the advantage and the Leader of the Opposition has to fight to be heard.

We have been seeing that for the past few months. Make no mistake, Mr. Dion could have been better but it would have taken a JFK type performance to really move his polling numbers. I am quite pleased that he managed to keep Liberal support steady.

As for this poll, I believe that the Conservative drop from the last Decima poll is well outside the margin of error so this poll is significant.

As well, we will have to see how this plays in the media. If it is downplayed then its impact will be minimum. However, if they play up the fact the Conservatives have fallen below that psychologically important number of 30% that could begin to change perceptions of Canadians.

If and when that happens Canadians will be looking for an alternative and that will present a great opportunity to the Liberals. Indeed, this poll just before the summer recess is reasonably good news for the Liberals because they will have a very long summer with which to show they would be a good alternative to the Conservatives.

Dan McKenzie said...

You should look into these polls at ctv.ca as well.

"In Newfoundland and Labrador, another hotbed of opposition to the budget, polls conducted for NTV by Telelink indicate that two Conservative MPs intending to run in the next election would face an uphill battle if the vote were held today.

Only 11 per cent say they would vote for Fisheries Minister Loyola Hearn, while 48 per cent would not. Almost 58 per cent thought he was wrong to vote for the budget.

Similarly, only 17 per cent would vote for Fabian Manning while 35 per cent said they would not. Fifty-five per cent thought he was wrong to vote for the budget.

More than 500 people were polled in each MP's riding. The margin of error was 4.3 percentage points."

http://tinyurl.com/292agb

knb said...

dan, I'd like to see a similar analysis in NS and know where MaKay stands.

ottlib, whether the media plays it up or not, I still think we're in a good place. The conservatives handed the opposition gold with this issue. Obviously it would be better if the polls were played up...I suspect there will be more to follow though.

Ordinary Canadians are not paying attention to politics....hey, I resent that, ;)!

Steve V said...

dan

ouch!

Anonymous said...

Even though the polls had Harper at 52% best leader and Dion 20% (I think) - 28% were unsure. I think that's a little better for Dion.

28% can be persuadesd!

Oh no, does this mean more boring attack ads?

Steve V said...

"Oh no, does this mean more boring attack ads?"

Let's hope so. The last round showed more people had a negative impression of Harper than Dion. You can't keep going to that well, without casting yourself in a bad light as well. While you may paint Dion as weak, you also solidify the impression that you are mean-spirited and bereft of a positive message.

knb said...

Frankly, now would be the best time to do neg ads. Harper's lack of credibility is out there. He's been outed as a bully and Casey is starting to be as forthcoming as Garth on this point.

Spend the money on the ad's, show yourself for who you are...we will decide.

Steve V said...

knb

It really is disgraceful when you think about. All the ad campaigns, four I believe, and still not one positive word uttered. If they choose this route again, then every Liberal near a mic should ask Canadians if they embrace endless negativity.

Debra said...

Steve,

You're absolutely right. Those attack ads are getting boring and probably losing effectiveness. After reading Linda Diebel's book Stephane Dion, Against The Current, the last thing I would call Dion is weak. More like tough, determined, fearless and accomplished. It made me wonder, what exactly has Harper done and accomplished in his previous life?

Steve V said...

"It made me wonder, what exactly has Harper done and accomplished in his previous life?"

Harper's entire career is predicated on the notion of tearing down. Even when he has crafted an idea, it is always within the context of disliking something else. His passion is criticism, and that has shaped his entire political career. Harper rose to prominence by articulating and representing dissent. Harper finds enemies, vilifies, and then tries to subplant with an alternative. The problem, the ideas don't start with sincerity, they start with rejection and replacement.

The Accountability Act, the signature piece, is a prime example. Reaction to the Liberals, the Act is more a political document to neuter an opponent, than serious reform. Aspects are far too restrictive, but the practicality is second to the desire to contrast. It's not about a positive vision, it's about being the "other".

Harper is a contrarian, that is his impetus and with each day, that approach is showing itself to be a failure.

knb said...

debra, I read the book too and concur. The man that Harper and gang try to present in their ads, is not the man who exists.

Both men are who we see. The key is getting more Canadians to "see" Dion, not Harper's pitiful portrayal of him.

It's going to be tough, because we can see how much Harper adores power and he seems to have no line he will not cross.

I say, let him keep showing us who he is.