Friday, June 29, 2007

The Pressure Builds

I'm almost certain that there is no historical precedent for a theoretical candidacy garnering such support. The fact that Al Gore tops a poll of Democrats in New Hampshire is beyond impressive and only makes the draft Gore drumbeat louder:
A presidential election poll suggesting Democratic voters would prefer former vice-president Al Gore to any of the declared contenders, including frontrunner Hillary Clinton...

The poll, conducted in New Hampshire by 7News and Suffolk University, confirmed Ms Clinton's nationwide double-digit lead over her main rival, Illinois senator Barack Obama. The former first lady and New York senator attracted 37% support, against Mr Obama's 19%. John Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was on 9%.

But if Mr Gore were to seek the Democratic nomination, 29% of Ms Clinton's backers would switch their support to him, the poll found. When defections from other candidates are factored in, the man who controversially lost to Mr Bush in the 2000 election takes command of the field, with 32% support.

Clinton, the clear frontrunner, would see her support evaporate with a Gore entrance. This suggests many things, not the least of which is complete voter apathy. If Clinton's support is so soft, it doesn't say much about Obama that he lags so far behind, seemingly unable to capitalize.

Gore has already outpaced his rivals in recent Florida and Pennsylvania polls, despite the fact he isn't a candidate. The fact that he could parachute in to New Hampshire and immediately take center stage has to make a possible run all the more attractive. New Hampshire, moreso than Iowa, is ground zero for presidential hopefuls, which makes these poll results all the more relevant.

Conventional wisdom suggests Gore is already too far behind in fundraising and organization to make a late bid successful. With the new front loaded primary calendar, a candidate needs a well oiled machine to survive. However, momentum will play an even bigger role this season, which could well supercede traditional organization. On that score, a Gore entrance has the capacity to become an instant power:
While Gore has not been raising funds for a presidential bid, others have been raising money for him. An all-volunteer group boasting tens of thousands of activists is waging a grass-roots campaign to raise money online for him at sites like AlGore.org. There, the senior counselor for Gore's 2000 campaign, David Moorehouse, is quoted saying, "Gore can wait longer than other candidates, because he can raise money on the Internet. ... Should he decide to run, he can raise $15 million in two days."

Whether or not you believe Gore could be successful, one has to admit that he is starting to cast a very long shadow over the entire Democratic field.

6 comments:

Woman at Mile 0 said...

If I could vote I would support Gore over the others as well.

knb said...

Hmmm, I need to think about this a bit.

I will say this though, I was worried about you Steve and I'm happy to see you back. I hope all is well.

Gore...hmmm.

Steve V said...

I went away for a few days with the family :)

Dana said...

It's probably naive to think that any one person would make any difference whatever in the US but if it were possible Gore would be one of the choices. Perhaps at this particular junction he might be the only choice.

But the truth is that for the US to become anything even remotely resembling functional again an enormous bi-and non-partisan coalition is going to have to emerge for whom the constitution
matters more than power or money.

And if you think that's likely to happen I got a bridge...

Anonymous said...

Well, Gore is losing weight...hmmm...

He is a smart man and he knows what goes on behind the WH scenes.

Just think - if Gore ran and won how that would affect John Baird who has been trashing him...interesting Canada/US relations then.

Steve V said...

I remember a few months ago, there was speculation that the best sign of a possible Gore run was a weight loss.