Friday, July 11, 2008

New Poll

Good news for the Liberals, despite the spin of the pollster:
The poll also measured support for the Conservatives and Liberals if an election were held in the immediate future, indicating that the two parties were statistically tied at 33 per cent and 32 per cent respectively

Bricker mentions that the numbers haven't really changed much in the last two years, but if you look at the last pre-Green Shift poll by this outfit, you see the Cons were at 36%, the Liberals 30%. I would counter a 5 point swing, in such short order, ias noteworthy. Also relevant, the fact that the outfit which normally tends to overstate Conservative support, relative to others, now has a statistical tie. Hard to see that as a good sign for the Conservatives.

On the question of the Green Shift, the numbers are encouraging:
Of those who answered the Ipsos Reid survey of 1,002 adult Canadians, a slim majority, 52 per cent, said they either strongly or somewhat agree with Dion's approach. In contrast, 42 per cent of respondents said they strongly or somewhat oppose the plan, and six per cent were undecided.

A slim majority if you consider the undecided and no responders, but a healthy majority, a full 10%, with those that have decided.

Other findings:
While 62 per cent of respondents said they believed the plan - dubbed Green Shift by the Liberals - will reduce pollution in the country, about two-thirds (65 per cent) of respondents felt the Liberals' proposed carbon tax would lead to a major increase in the taxes paid by families, and 62 per cent said they thought it's likely to increase tension between Western Canada, Ontario and Quebec

Interestingly, people believe this plan will reduce emissions, but also see a price attached. While this speaks to the hard sell on revenue neutrality, it does point to a willingness to embrace the plan.

I agree with Bricker that it's too early to judge, people need to see more details. From a strategic perspective, I will gladly take a non-committed electorate at this point, because a complicated policy needs time to be understood, the early days probably the most challenging, especially with the pre-launch attacks.

All this said, it is important to remember the source, which always demands an asterisk. The compelling part, the asterisk poll no longer offers delusional comfort for the Cons, in fact, it should be of real concern.


More detail here


knb said...

Agreed. Imagine that!

I wrote on it too because I heard a radio host that unfortunately, spoke so quickly that I didn't much of it up, but he spilled some of the internals.

It will be interesting to watch how the Con's go forward on this.

Steve V said...

Shocking :)

I was thinking more about those numbers. When you consider the horserace numbers, the Cons have 33% and those against total 42%, the Libs 32% and those for 52%. That means, if you extrapolate, you have the solid Con core against, plus some others, a good portion NDP supporters, who support their own plan. 42% is pretty much base resistence, the fact that a full 20% more approve than indicate Liberal support is great news on the growth angle, especially considering the source here.

Frankly Canadian said...

I'm glad we have honest people like yourself to disclaim the constant disreputable reporting and polling that goes on with these media companies. Keep up the good work, I just wish more Canadians could see theses blogs and learn the truth about our so called news reporters and unbiased polling.

liberazzi said...

Digging the Green Shift and the good thing is that people are still talking about it a few weeks later, even in the heart of summer. Too bad this Green Shift company wants to rain on the parade, but it looks like they can settle it. I was disappointed that I missed Dion in sauga, so they need to do a better job of advertising these events to Lib members.

On a side note, I have generally stopped reading columnists, they are all idiots and out of touch.

I am repeating myself, but the polling at this point is irrevelent, since a fall election will settle this. Having said that I believe the polls are important for the psyche of Dion, meaning that if we are still tied around early fall then its look like the Libs will pull the plug.

Greg said...

Steve, given the way our electoral system works, if I was Harper, I would be happy with 42% with no one to vote for but me. In our crazy system, 42% is a comfortable "majority".

Greg said...

In other words, I am not buying the 42% represents NDP supporters. In fact, I think the number includes mostly small c conservative "Scarborough" Liberal voters.

Steve V said...

" I would be happy with 42% with no one to vote for but me."

Why wouldn't you buy the NDP supporters, considering the party is adamantly opposed to the carbon tax? And, don't forget that about regional distribution, 70% support in Alberta tends to skew things. When you break down the internals of a deadheat, it's clearly Liberal advantage.

Take your 33%, you only have 9% more opposed, which is about half of the NDP supporters. On the other hand, those in favor, are a full 20% above the Liberal total. I like our chances :)