This is the second week in a row that EKOS has showed a noticeable Liberal uptick, there is a healthy gradient to their curve. The Conservatives are actually up slightly, which reinforces the belief that they've reached "bottom". Despite this levelling out, breaking a 12 week downward trend, the Liberals still narrow the gap, with increased support:
Conservatives: 31.5 (+0.6)
Liberals: 30.9 (+1.6)
NDP: 14.9 (-0.4)
Green: 11.5 (-0.4)
Other: 2.1 (-0.2)
I posited a few days ago, that we look to be entering the "second look" phase for Ignatieff. They tear you down to the point of oblivion, but inevitably the piling on gets old, people search for new storylines- everyone loves an underdog, especially when it's their partial creation! It's fair to say, that Ignatieff's relatively favorable press coverage have helped the Liberal fortunes. In order to fully capitalize on Conservative missteps, the Liberals must look the credible alternative. If not an overwhelming sense, at least Ignatieff's tour and high profile have allowed a few more people to drift into the Liberal column.
In Ontario, the gap between the two principals. has actually narrowed about 3%, Liberals holding a small 4% lead. What is noteworthy, and this speaks to my "putting items in the window" perspective, the Greens are now tied with the NDP for third at 13.3% (that Strategic Counsel 22% for the NDP looks every bit the outlier that tends to plague that outlet from time to time). That translates to almost 27% of the electorate parked with the lesser parties, a massive total that demands attention. If recent polling is still accurate, the Liberals enjoy much "second choice" support amongst this subset, so exploiting that will be key, if the Liberals hope to get into serious governance terrority.
Solid results for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. I note that EKOS now has the Liberals tied with the Conservatives for the "male" vote.
This is a good news result for the Liberals, no question. It provides enough momentum to continue the new narratives, it provides further opportunity for Ignatieff to truly redefine himself, and in so doing rebrand the party. There is still a "drag" that exists, as evidenced by a consistent 3% uptick year to year for the Greens.
Advice aside, it is entirely pleasing to see the once daunting Conservative majority now reduced to an equation that relates to sitting in opposition.